Why Republicans Lost the House

I’m not seeing any of the following in the political commentary on the election, so I’ll put it here because I don’t like dishonest analysis.

The #1 reason why Republicans lost the House is that Trump hasn’t done anything meaningful on immigration. Talk to his supporters or, if you don’t know any, go to any comment section where people who voted for Trump in 2016 speak and you’ll see that there’s a wave of disappointment with his results on immigration. These voters are not attached to him personally and will go with anybody who will do something. Telling them that the issue doesn’t exist is a waste of time. These voters are ripe for the picking and you’ve got to be an idiot not to pick them up.

The second reason is that his statement on lowering drug prices came way too late to be noticed and he didn’t manage to advertise his opioid initiatives.

As for why Republicans won the Senate, it was a hard – but not impossible – task for Democrats but they blew it with the Kavanaugh hearings. I knew the Senate wasn’t going to be won five minutes into Kavanaugh’s speech. We are all very lucky the election wasn’t held the week after the hearings and people got a chance to cool down.

Trump blew it with his excessive emphasis on immigration right before the election not because people don’t care about the issue but because they see him increasingly as all bluster and no action on the subject. Voters wanted to punish him for not acting.


7 thoughts on “Why Republicans Lost the House”

  1. The #1 reason why Republicans lost the House is that Trump hasn’t done anything meaningful on immigration
    They were not thrilled with the Muslim ban? Or they didn’t see it as substantive?

    I would love, love to see some kind of political issue coherency to explain this kind of result but I’m still looking at Florida and I’m baffled. We’re restoring felon voting rights, banning offshore drilling and vaping, and greyhound racing and we need a supermajority to raise taxes. Whaaat? Also Nelson is asking for a recount?

    It’s the amendments which confuse me. The state house and state senate results are what I expect. But if you voted for DeSantis as a committed ideologue, I don’t get the amendments. 11/12 passed.


    1. My Democratic rep won reelection and it wasn’t even close. Crist used to be a Republican governor, ran for Senate and lost to Rubio, spent time at Morgan & Morgan (a huge personal injury law firm), and then ran for House as a Democrat.

      I heard nothing from him (in terms of direct voter outreach) this election season. Neither from Nelson. But I had so many, many texts and cell phone calls to GOTV from local office candidates, progressive PACS and the Florida GOP. I got some that were directed to my brother.


    2. DeSantis would have lost and lost big if Democrats didn’t choose to nominate a clearly dishonest fellow who’s tainted by corruption allegations. I heard Gillum on TV several times and he somehow managed to make himself look completely guilty when asked about the allegations he’s being investigated by the feds. How he manages to do that is a mystery when Trump manages to look completely innocent even when he’s clearly guilty.

      And also, if you do a Google search on Gillum’s position, he created a big hurdle for himself on the gun issue. He should have toned it down, created strong answers on corruption, and he’d be in office right now.


      1. I think Gillum was still the best candidate available. Everyone else was incredibly boring, while he was charismatic and likeable. I found myself liking him, and you know what I’m into politically (it’s not people who want to abolish ICE.) Floridians I knew felt pretty optimistic about his candidacy but who knows.


  2. I didn’t vote for Gillum in the primary precisely because of the ongoing FBI investigation. Gillum’s loss isn’t incomprehensible.

    The negative flyers I got were of Gillum being a scary black man socialist parked right next to Obama, Hillary Clinton, Sanders and a hammer and sickle. The hammer and sickle threw me because I thought Democrats were hitting the “Russia bad” button now. Someone from the Gillum campaign posted on my local FaceBook job group because they were hiring local block walkers and the comments section erupted into a fight about the dangers of socialism. Nobody said anything about guns.


    1. You are there so you definitely know better what the situation is. Thank you for the insight. Gillum was close to winning but Florida has always seemed to me the most divided state in the nation. I have no idea why that is. But every race there is a close tossup. I love Florida but it’s a complicated state.


  3. People I know don’t seem to be losing faith in Trump. I think the blue wave just happened because the party out of power almost always makes gains in midterms. Don’t think there’s any deep “reason” beyond that. Of course, maybe Ohioans just like Trump more; the blue wave didn’t really hit here as far as I can tell.


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