COVID: Wrong Arguments

Also, on the subject of “IHME changed its projections because quarantines were instituted and these measures worked:”

IHME’s projections that keep dropping off a cliff were done taking into account the quarantine and everybody observing social distancing:

This is the projection that was changed (once again) yesterday and brought the projected peak to the day after tomorrow and the projected number of deaths from 140,000 to 60,000. Initially, IHME went down from 140,000 to 90,000. Then, it went down some more. (I’m not discussing the fantasies about 30 million dead because these were never part of models developed by scholars at a respectable institution.)

Once again: the projection was always based on FULL social distancing being observed.

I recommend following IHME’s Twitter feed. They post the new projections as soon as they come in. People are now going to change the narrative about what really happened. The only way to resist the brainwashing is to check the actual data.

3 thoughts on “COVID: Wrong Arguments”

  1. When I first heard 200k I really thought it was too high. They said they were puling off of european data, indeed the case fatality in the uk is over 12 percent, over 10 in italy and spain. If they were assuming this they would have guessed that we would get 1-2 million infections(a million is probably right) and a similar case fataily. Clearly the real fatality rate isn’t 10 percent, Europe has tons of people running around for weeks spreading the virus before they knew about it. Italy must have had at least half a million infections. The infection buried itself deep before they found it and that must have been the assumption with the us model.
    What we can see in the US is that it looks like the virus got here pretty late, in mid-February based on the genetic analysis. The fact that it got to NYC mostly from Europe means it came later and thus penetrated less deeply before we discovered it, which means it wasnt as deeply buried as it was say in the UK before we started mass testing. This is good news. For exponential functions, it is easy to overshoot by a factor of 2 by just moving the iteration time by 10-14 days. That is my best anyway. Our case fatality will go up , but not as much as the uk. We had 2k deaths a day for the past 2 days, I hope we dont have a 10 day plateau of that like Italy did.


    1. In NYC, hospitalizations are dropping off dramatically. deaths are still in the same range but that’s residual from the situation of a few days ago. So even NYC is very hopeful. Washington State has already donated its ventilators (to Illinois, as it happens) because they are not needed. I’m anticipating Illinois passing them on early next week. For now, we hoard them for “just in case.”


  2. I am also encouraged about the news from NY. Hopefully NY was able to cut it off at the knees. I remain pissed at Cuomo for not agreeing to shelter in place 5 days before he finally declared it.
    I also read about new therapies doctors are trying to keep people off of ventilators. The new one people are talking about is giving nitric oxide gas,the hope is that is can kill the virus in the lungs and dilate the blood vessels to improve oxygen uptake. Apparently they doing studies investigating 3 uses, one if for severe case right before they would have to go on a ventilator, another is for cases when they are still mild to keep them from degrading, and the third is prophylactic use for hospital workers. I really hope it works.


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