Death Toll Numbers

This kind of deeply idiotic takes is why earlier today I posted the real COVID mortality graph adjusted for the population size:

BREAKING: The U.S. has overtaken Italy for the highest death toll in the world from the coronavirus, Johns Hopkins University says. https://t.co/tRpuZ2Ai8R

Hitler’s Greatest Mistake

This is what happens when people spend years using “Hitler” as a synonym for “a dude I don’t like a whole lot” and “Nazis” as a synonym for “people who aren’t following me on social media.”

We kept wondering, what was Hitler’s biggest mistake? What a relief finally to have it all explained.

I haven’t read the article but I wonder if the author managed to avoid some inane Trump analogy.

Aladdin’s Magical Virus

At least now there’s a way to explain to little kids why some backwards cultures cover women’s faces.

I read “Aladdin’s Magical Lamp” to Klara and she saw illustrations with shrouded women.

“Must be a bad virus going around in Baghdad,” she explained sagely.

When Did COVID Come to CA?

It seems very likely that the reason why California is doing so much better than New York on coronavirus has nothing to do with a good tsar (mayor, governor, whatever). California might have had the virus much earlier and developed immunity by now.

Folks, I personally know 3 people who came back from California extremely sick with COVID-like symptoms in December – early January. Obviously, it’s very anecdotal. But look at the article at the link. It’s in the LA Times.

A New Experience

The Easter service will be online but afterwards we are allowed to drive up to the church and have the priest bless our baskets through the car window.

If somebody ever told me I’d once celebrate my birthday by driving to another town at 3 am with a basket of sausage to get it blessed by a priest. . .

P.S. For those who are completely unfamiliar: it’s an all-night service followed by a feast. The priest blesses the baskets filled with food we’d given up for Lent and then we proceed to eat it immediately. Last year, somebody’s basket had a six-pack of beer and a gigantic bag of something called “Doritos.”

Why Projections Went Down

This bears repeating because people don’t seem to be getting it.

Strict mitigation efforts were built into all the IHME models from the start.

This is why it makes zero sense to say that “the number of projected deaths dropped because of the lockdowns.” Lockdowns were always part of the model. 200,000 deaths were expected WITH the quarantine.

The number of people who keep repeating that the projection went down so dramatically because of the quarantine is truly scary. It’s not a complicated thought.

The number of deaths is much lower than expected because the Wuhan virus works differently than was initially thought. We are in luck.

Of course, this isn’t to say that tomorrow somebody in China won’t drag another infected pangolin (whatever it is) home from a lab and we won’t be on the hook for something worse than the WuFlu.

There is no real solution because nobody can predict what the next virus is going to be. You can hoard ventilators and masks but it can easily be dysentery or encephalitis or whatever.

People who keep wailing that “we should have been prepared” are right up there with the folks who aren’t managing to take in a very clear model.