COVID Fatalities

Sorry, it doesn’t have Canada I’m trying to find a more complete one.

Belgium is news to me. Why is it so bad and why doesn’t anybody talk about it?

6 thoughts on “COVID Fatalities”

  1. Thank you for posting this kind of info–it makes me feel less crazy. I live in southern Ontario, the most populous region in Canada, and though our media are bombarding us with hysterical death projections and the government devises ever-more draconian measures to lock us down, the hospitals in my region are literally empty. At one of the two major downtown hospitals here in Hamilton, there are currently seven people hospitalized with Covid. Across the lake in Burlington, there are 16 at the city’s major hospital. Note that these hospitals help serve almost one million people. Meanwhile, at the Hamilton hospital, 400 beds are empty, awaiting patients that will likely never arrive. None of this being reported in the media. I only know this from friends who work in healthcare. Those empty beds represent postponed surgeries that patients have likely been waiting months for (a normal thing in Canada).

    As for our trustafarian Prime Minister and his crack team, their total bungling of the crisis is summed up nicely in our local (pro-Conservative Party) paper:


  2. I do not like unnecessary fearmongering either, but recalibrating those graphs so that they all start at the time of the first death is not perfectly problem-free.
    Imagine you have multiple compartments (aka countries; degree of isolation is not the most important point here, it is just that statistics is collected and reported by country). Some virus is introduced into a new compartment. Someone dies (and the clock of your graph gets started), but due to a combination of somebody being professional and just good luck he virus does not spread. Spread of any virus is a probabilistic process. Some time later the virus gets reintroduced again at some random place within our selected compartment. Etc. Eventually due to a combination of somebody’s unprofessionalism and/or just plain bad luck the outbreak gets out of control. The proper way to shift those curves with respect to each other is to start them all not from the first death, but from the moment of losing control. But of course the latter moment is much more difficult to determine before the outbreak runs its course and one can observe at least the plateau / maximum.
    One needs a more complete dataset to fit. Otherwise one would make the same mistake that the fearmongers make (just with the opposite sign) – they fit the beginning of the curve with an exponential and declare that it is going to continue this way until we all die…


    1. According to IHME, we passed the peak yesterday. But I don’t deny it’s possible we’ll get a number closer to Italy’s later on. Once we get there, I’m all for reporting it. But reporting it right now when it’s not true – what can be the purpose of that? Other than to make an inane political point?


      1. I agree that per capita numbers are much more relevant than the absolute numbers. I only have problem with the time axis of that graph.


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