This bears repeating because people don’t seem to be getting it.
Strict mitigation efforts were built into all the IHME models from the start.
This is why it makes zero sense to say that “the number of projected deaths dropped because of the lockdowns.” Lockdowns were always part of the model. 200,000 deaths were expected WITH the quarantine.
The number of people who keep repeating that the projection went down so dramatically because of the quarantine is truly scary. It’s not a complicated thought.
The number of deaths is much lower than expected because the Wuhan virus works differently than was initially thought. We are in luck.
Of course, this isn’t to say that tomorrow somebody in China won’t drag another infected pangolin (whatever it is) home from a lab and we won’t be on the hook for something worse than the WuFlu.
There is no real solution because nobody can predict what the next virus is going to be. You can hoard ventilators and masks but it can easily be dysentery or encephalitis or whatever.
People who keep wailing that “we should have been prepared” are right up there with the folks who aren’t managing to take in a very clear model.