COVID Link of the Day

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries is not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • “Certain” that at least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden have already had the disease

Here’s the whole thing.

In and Out

I find Julia Child’s recipes to be unnecessarily fussy. It’s an endless succession of “put the pot in the oven, then take it out. Then put it in again, then take it out. In, out, in, out.”

I’m starting to suspect Julia Child was lacking in the department in which ladies who cook extremely well don’t usually experience any lack.

I’ve been feeling like I don’t cook enough because of our weekly support of local businesses through carryout, so I decided to cook my own birthday dinner for tomorrow.

COVID Image of the Day

This is from the CDC:

Footnote two says: “Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.”

Overall mortality is the only interesting number at this point, given that deaths get coded as COVID very aggressively and creatively.

Rusted Out Brains

There are people who are seriously still fear-mongering on the basis of the original Imperial College projections. These projections have only comedic value at this point but many people have such an incapacity to accept new data that they will swear by these numbers for the next 30 years.

The Imperial College made a mistake. It was a huge, gigantic mistake. But that happens. Everybody is human. It’s time to move on.