Good Faith Question

Seriously, folks, what’s the explanation for the theory that the COVID death counts are lower than reality?

I’m not wedded to any theory on this but I am wedded to the belief that nothing happens just because. So there’s got to be a reason why the same authorities that need to explain to the people they impoverished for a generation to come would pretend that the disease is not as serious as it is. I understand why they would want to pretend that it’s more serious than it is. But why would they pretend it’s less serious? Where’s the gain?

It’s a completely good faith question. I’m very ready to adopt a new narrative on this. But I need to know what the narrative is.

15 thoughts on “Good Faith Question”

  1. I do not think that there is any government or group of influential people who know the truth and somehow manipulate it for some kind of a benefit. Some groups like that may believe that they know and are trying to use it for their own benefit. But they do not know. Many people are expressing some ideas just because they believe in them. Often there is no other reason. People believe in things that are the best match for they prior knowledge, life experiences, psychological makeup, childhood traumas, anxiety tolerance or intolerance, etc.

    Nobody is in control. But many people prefer to believe that someone is, even if they believe that this someone is malevolent, or greedy, or what not. Contemplating that noone knows and noone is in control is too traumatic.

    I admit that I myself do not know a lot of things, including to what degree various quarantine measures are justified. My position is grounded not in knowledge but in ethics – I am not going to tell others, from the safety of my home, that they should go out and risk their health.


    1. Dr Birx said very clearly and more than once, “we count deaths that might be COVID as COVID.” The only possibilities are that she’s incompetent, a liar, or is telling the truth. I think she’s telling the truth.


  2. If I was the authorities, I would try to count the proportion of fatalities high so that I could scare the population but count the total number low so I could claim that my authoritarian measure worked.


  3. Comment on Good Faith Question

    Overall statistics on death rates are significant. I spoke with a life actuary who is a friend of mine. He said that the fact that the typical number of deaths per day in New York City for people dying at home without medical intervention has for years has been about 25. Now it is suddenly about 200, an increase by a factor of 8. A plausible hypothesis is that these increased deaths are largely caused by COVID19. This is not an ironclad case, of course, but the effect calls for an alternative explanation. I don’t know what the numbers are for places outside NYC.


  4. I agree with valter07 that NOBODY — none of the various experts with their contrasting theories — really knows what’s going on with the virus at this point. It’s all hyper-educated guesswork until much more information is known about how the virus spreads, how lethal it really is, the extent to which it mutates, whether having the illness gives a person immunity and for how long, etc., etc. It’s going to be that way for a while, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.

    One reasonable theory is that deaths from the virus were initially very much under-diagnosed because authorities weren’t familiar with it, and therefore misdiagnosed COVID-19 deaths as flu, end-state cardiac disease, and such. Then after the panic set in, people started over-diagnosing many deaths from other causes as due to the coronavirus. The result is that there is no accurate death count, no matter what any one “expert” source claims.

    There’s an old saying that everyone who’s ever worked for the government has heard: “Don’t assume conspiracy when what you’re witnessing is stupidity and ignorance.”


    1. One interesting metric is the overall death count for the US for this period compared with last year at the same time.

      Is it higher? Lower? The same?

      I know the answer because I looked.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. People seem to WANT this thing to be worse than it actually is. I think it is because a huge percentage of people hate their jobs, and (whether they will admit it in public or not) really like having a good excuse not to go to work. They dread going back.


      1. Perhaps. I don’t really know anyone who’s into UBI, and not coincidentally, most of the people I know are still working because they’re essential– and are uniformly in favor of opening things back up ASAP, with whatever mask-wearing or concert-cancelling seems reasonable. Because they’re at work every day, just like always, and they’re not getting mowed down by a virus along with all their coworkers. It is self-evidently not happening.

        The small handful of people I’m acquainted with who are terrified of “OMG we’re all gonna die if we let people go to the beach” are, uniformly nonessential personnel who’ve been puttering around their houses for a month now. And I think they’re enjoying it. And that’s great! I hope they can do some self-examining, and maybe find a different life path that doesn’t involve a BS job they hate, as a result of all this. But so far it’s “DON’T GO BACK TO WORK OR YOU’LL KILL US ALL!” is as far as they can get.


  6. Santa Clara County documented yesterday that two deaths in February originally attributed to “natural causes” were in fact Covid-19. The absence of test kits and lack of knowledge of local medical examiners, especially outside of major cities, led to deaths being attributed to pneumonia when in fact the underlying cause was the virus. We thought that was the case, now we have proof of it, but it took the CDC 2 months to process the tissue samples that a curious coroner submitted, and many just aren’t that curious.


    1. If there was a significant number of cases (and not just an odd outlier here and there) and nobody noticed, the healthcare system wasn’t overwhelmed, then why are we quarantined?


  7. In the UK the numbers that are announced daily are (or at least were when I last checked) lower than reality.
    That’s because they only include Covid 19 deaths in hospital.
    The elderly dying in care homes aren’t identified until about 3 weeks later (latest publication is w/e 10th April )
    The reason is that politicians want the UK to look better than comparator countries to justify our national religion (sorry national health service).


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