What Does the CDC Have to Say?

We flattened and reversed the curve 4-5 weeks ago. Emergency rooms haven’t been at risk of being overwhelming for 4-5 weeks.

The screenshot is from the CDC.

The CDC website is fascinating, by the way. Did you know, for instance,that the CDC stopped counting flu deaths 6 weeks earlier than normally? That is, precisely when the emergency room visits started to go down. Maybe there’s another explanation to this phenomenon than the need to manufacture evidence to justify lockdowns but I don’t know what it can be.

Currently, the CDC has one joint number for mortality from COVID, flu and pneumonia. This isn’t a conspiracy. This is right there on the CDC site. That number of 63,000 deaths, who knows what it would be if the flu were counted separately.

Does the CDC know? I don’t really think so.

8 thoughts on “What Does the CDC Have to Say?”

    1. Vic, I’m sorry you’ve had some bad experiences, I really honestly am. My heart goes out to you.

      But this narrative makes no sense. Trump’s only chance of reelection lies in convincing people that the numbers are higher, not lower and that the lockdowns were justified. If you listen to what he’s been saying for a couple of weeks now, it sounds extremely defensive and it’s all about how the disease is much deadlier than even the most alarmist epidemiologist suggests any more.

      That you would think Trump wants these numbers to be lower tells me that you are not observing reality. Which brings me back to the first sentence of this comment. I’m really honestly sorry about your experiences.

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      1. I disagree with your assessment of what Trump wants. His staff is split. Some want the lockdown to end immediately while others are worried about the death toll. For his part, he wants to push responsibility for what happens on the governors. Federal guidance on the lockdown ended on April 30th. He said he would be successful if the death toll stayed under 60,000. It didn’t and the real toll is much higher. So now he wants no part of it. The governors will own lockdown decisions and death tolls. (The Georgia governor ordered his health department to stop reporting covid numbers.) Nor does Trump want Dr. Fauci talking with Congress.

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  1. Back of the envelope calculation from NYC data. NYC antibody tests show 25% positive for antibodies. I will add to that 2% who tested positive for the virus and round up to 30% infection rate. The dead are 13,000(these are confirmed cases, I have not added suspected deaths). Out of 8 million people in NYC that means 0.16 percent have died of coronavirus. Therefore the infection fatality rate is about 0.5 percent from NYC data.
    For heard immunity in NYC at a 60 percent infection rate we would then assume another 13k deaths in NYC.
    For the entire country 60% of the population is about 190 million, now times .005 is 950k deaths. As the worst case scenario. This 60% calculation assumed the reproduction number is 2.2ish

    The question is how low can the reproduction number be brought down to and maintained at.

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  2. If COVID 19 behaves as any other airborne virus, it should die out or die way, way down in sunshine and warm weather. SARS, a closely-related coronavirus, in 2002-3 certainly did, with a very minor recurrence the next year, and then gone for good. Why imagine this will be otherwise? I’d like to see evidence: has there ever been a coronavirus epidemic that didn’t die out with nice weather? Not that I’ve heard of. Yet this is preached as gospel.

    The timing of the collapse in deaths in Italy and Spain – right about when the weather got nice – seems to support this. France and England don’t get weather (well, nicer weather) until May or June, so they are still awaiting that bump.

    As far as excess deaths go, I’d still want to wait until year end, because of the demographics: with 20-25% of deaths occuring in nursing homes, 80% over 65, and a 95% of victims having one or more comorbidity, it sounds a lot like COVID 19 is simply punching the tickets to the next life a bit faster than the usual things that do in old, sick people. What I’d expect is that usual seasonal drop-off in deaths that happens every spring might be a little steeper this year. Not to make light of it, every death is a tragedy, but people in nursing homes are, with few exceptions, put there to die.

    Also, I wonder why USA Today used the average death rate rather than the raw data, which shows that, while high, the number of dead is not much higher overall for this time of year than in bad flu years like 2017. Historically, adjusted for population, it’s a bad year, but not uniquely so.

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    1. “The timing of the collapse in deaths in Italy and Spain – right about when the weather got nice – seems to support this. France and England don’t get weather (well, nicer weather) until May or June, so they are still awaiting that bump.”

      • That’s what I think, too. Montreal is still seeing a lot of deaths but they have very long winters. In Illinois, the death rates are going down, which is why the governor has stopped mentioning them at all and is now saying we will not reopen until he deploys “tracing teams” that… I have no idea. There is no clear end goal because his goal is political and not medical.

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      1. California has nice, sunny weather year round. We have about 2,000 COVID 19 deaths (including, e.g., a 99 year old who died in a nursing home and a 37 year old who died of a drug overdose but had COVID 19 on his death cert) on a population of 37M. Meanwhile, about the same number of Californians drown in their backyard pools every year.

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