Some Numbers

Across the US, 2,6% of all COVID deaths are of people under the age of 45.

In Massachusetts, only 14,8% of deaths are under the age of 70.

In Minnesota, 81% of all COVID deaths are in nursing homes.

In Connecticut, 6,3% are under 60 and 18,8% are under 70.

In PA, there are more deaths over the age of 95 than under the age of 60.

Worldwide, there are more deaths over the age 100 than under the age 30. Obviously, the number of people over the age 100 is massively lower than that of the under-thirties.

But let’s definitely battle the virus by keeping schools closed and nursing homes open.

Also, if we took these 5 trillion in COVID handouts money and used them to put every nursing home patient in the Four Seasons, that would have been a more effective use of the money. It’s how the PA health secretary saved her elderly mom, after all.

4 thoughts on “Some Numbers”

  1. “Also, if we took these 5 trillion in COVID handouts money and used them to put every nursing home patient in the Four Seasons, that would have been a more effective use of the money.”

    Yes!!! If we had just properly isolated the LTC homes, the aged living in the community, and those who were medically vulnerable the U.S. would have saved at least 4 trillion of the 5, not suffered the economic and psychological effects of the lock-down, and had more than enough enough money left over for dinner and drinks for all.

    Our youngest daughter has been working for the last 3 weeks on a provincially-mandated hospital SWAT crew sent in to trouble-shoot an LTC home where there have been close to 50 COVID deaths and more than 100 staff (!!) infections. She told me recently that conditions are already much better as they have taught the LTC staff how to manage the situation better. Why, oh why, didn’t public health do this at the BEGINNING – it makes you want to cry.

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  2. Also, it’s not like nursing home populations are homogenous. The majority of the people stuck there are going to die sooner rather than later. A 2010 study in SF showed 80% of nursing home patients died within a year of being admitted. but the average stay is still 2.2 years – because some, especially those with dementia and Alzheimer’s (and little else) typically live 5-10 years.

    What you end up with is a churn: there’s a constant flow of patients who die soon – that SF study showed a median survival time of 3 months(!) for men and 9 for women. Those poor souls show up with one foot on the threshold of St. Peter’s gate, and pretty much promptly step over. BUT – as, anecdotally, as I see when I go caroling at the same nursing home year after year, SOME residents live for many years, skewing the average stay high. The median ‘stay’ is like 6 months; the average is 2.2 years.

    The takeaway: while some elderly people who would have otherwise lived a few more years no doubt died of COVID 19 in nursing homes, I’m betting – and that autopsy video you posted bears this out, where all 12 victims were extremely ill before they caught the virus – that mainly the virus is doing little more than accelerating the deaths of extremely sick people, if even that. The sad truth: people in nursing homes are put there to die; in the old days, if an 80yr old died, the cause of death was ‘old age’, with a nod, maybe, to the cold, flu, infection, or other otherwise minor illness that pushed them the last inch over the finish line.

    Thus, even if everything was done right, as you described, chances are all that would have happened was that the ‘curve’ of deaths in nursing homes would have been ‘flattened’. As was always inherent in the math, the same number of people would have died, just spread out a little more. Applying this to the whole population, OTOH, only guarantees that the virus hangs around for longer and longer – until as Gavin Newsom clearly hopes, flu season starts up again, and an airborn virus that would have died out in the spring is given a second life.

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