No More Epidemic

COVID is not an epidemic anymore. It causes under 7,2% of all weekly deaths, which is the CDC-defined threshold for an epidemic.

Yet we are still going to keep making idiots out of ourselves over it for another year.

6 thoughts on “No More Epidemic”

  1. Respectfully, that doesn’t make sense. An epidemic is defined as “an increase in the frequency of occurrence of a disease in a population above its baseline, or expected level, in a given time period”. Since SARS-CoV-2 is a brand new virus, I’m pretty sure that no one knows what the baseline or expected level is at all.

    Technically, you could argue that it isn’t possible for there to even be an epidemic until an outbreak totally finishes and then comes back again in a second outbreak, whereby the second outbreak may be classified as being an epidemic, while the first outbreak can only ever be an outbreak and never an epidemic.

    Apologies for being fussy btw. I don’t like the CDC very much, since imo it has become a nest of bureaucrats and quasi politicians who don’t actually understand medical science very well.


  2. The number of diagnosed cases is rising. The number of deaths has fallen somewhat because of better clinical practices. I have never seen this definition of epidemic. Is it on the CDC website?


    1. “number of diagnosed cases is rising”

      What about hospitalization rates? That’s a much better metric to follow. Every day a few hundred more cases are discovered in Poland but the hospitalization rates have fallen (slowly but unmistakably).


    2. I read an article a couple of days ago about improved clinical practices. It sounds like some of what they were doing back in February and March was making things worse and a good number of the people who died then probably would have made it with the current treatments.

      Still, it seems like things are about to get bad in Texas and Florida in the coming weeks with uncontrolled spread there, most people don’t get that sick, but a small percentage is going to add up if the number infected is growing quickly.


      1. “things are about to get bad in Texas and Florida in the coming weeks”

        The main vector of COVID transmission is airborne droplets from infectious individuals it now appears.

        So, could it be as simple as this – that indoor central heating and cooling are key factors in spreading the disease? This might account for the higher rates of serious infection in the north-eastern American states and Canada during the winter and early spring months and the relatively lower rates in the same period in the southern United States. Conversely, indoor AC confinement in high summer the southern US is now helping to spike cases while Canada and the north-eastern states appear to have greatly quietened at least for the time being.

        This seems a kind of obvious suspicion but I haven’t seen all that much recent discussion of a possible causal relationship. The chattering classes for the most part view COVID as a political, rather than a medical, disease and so think in categories such as lockdown, masks, and Trump-is-to-blame-for-everything-bad-in-this-world.


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