Played Out

So Chris Christie who’s very fat but under the age of 60 recovered from COVID. Trump who’s 74 and not thin or fit also recovered really fast. Obviously, it’s not the same COVID as in March. It’s rapidly mutating. It has clearly mutated into a form that isn’t lethal or even mildly dangerous even to the formerly at-risk groups. The numbers around the country support this.

When can we turn off Zoom and leave captivity?

14 thoughts on “Played Out”

  1. Because you and me aren’t going to receive 8 grams of synthetic COVID-19 antibodies the moment we get a positive test, before the virus can do much damage, and two points don’t make a statistical sample. Also, I’m definitely not seeing the lowering in mortality in Romanian data, and I don’t know why the US would be different.

    I agree that it’s absurd that they’re locking down your whole state rather than just the areas with heavy community spread, though.

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      1. Yeah, I checked a bit further. Charles also said that his sense of smell and taste were still affected a few months afterwards. It will be interesting to see if the more recent cases still have persistent symptoms.

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  2. If you go to google and put in covid states (Country) October you get handy little tool where you can compare new case rates and fatality rates in a lot (not all by any means) countries.

    In Europe the number of new cases are rapidly increasing in most countries. But…. there’s an interesting rough correlation.
    Countries that were hit heavily in March-April (Belgium, Italy, Spain) have extremely low fatality rates at present.
    Those countries that were not especially affected in March-April are experiencing a modest increase in fatalities (nothing cataclysmic but a clear increase from March-April). In Poland this means an increase from around 20 to about 50 per day… with about 10 % from covid alone and 90 % with comorbidities).

    My idea is that the virus has a floor and a ceiling…. it doesn’t burn itself out until some minimum number have it but it stalls out at a certain number too. This leaves lots of room for different results in different countries in final tallies….

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  3. The data out of Iran tells a different story, since the number of cases is rising along with the number of deaths, while the ratio of deaths to cases looks to be fairly stable. If the virus had become less lethal, we would expect, at the very least, that the death to case ratio to be reduced.

    It seems to me that we are still in the beginnings of our understanding of this virus, which means that it is probably better to err on the side of caution.

    At the same time, I think that we should spend time reexamining priorities, particularly in regards to how profit driven our society is, as well as how little is truly cared about those who are without employment or who are mortgage/credit stressed etc.

    The way we are handling it presently at the moment as a society is really inhumane, and imo risks at least a partial social or economic collapse, or both.

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      1. Respectfully, neither the case rate nor case fatality rate depend on testing rates beyond requiring that enough people are actually tested for the test sample to be reflective of the general population.

        In Iran, the number of tests per million people is about 51,000. By way of comparison, the South Koreans, who are widely lauded for their good procedures, are testing less than the Iranians, with about 49,000 tests per million people. Malaysia, similarly, is behind Iran on that measure.

        You may see these figures for yourself, if you look to the right of the page in the column marked ‘tests per M population’.

        Separately, the CFR of various important countries may be viewed at this link, which shows the Iranian CFR to have floated at between 5% and 6% since March. (A CFR of 5%-6% is shockingly high by the way imo).

        Judging by the various trajectories of CFR lines in the following link, I don’t think that we are anywhere near the end of this yet. Another year of pain minimum, imo.

        https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#how-did-confirmed-deaths-and-cases-change-over-time

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        1. “I don’t think that we are anywhere near the end of this yet. Another year of pain minimum”

          translation from twitterer: 2020 in one picture
          cartoon at top: Welcome to Heaven
          signs above doors from left: Alchohol, AIDS, heart disease, Covid-19, cancer

          Clarification: In Poland about 1000 people die every day. Only three days have had more than 50 covid deaths… (only about ten percent of which aren’t with comorbidities).

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          1. Cliff Arroyo, respectfully, when HIV was first discovered, it was a controversial topic. Many people thought it to be a hoax. One of the reasons for that was because it took 18 months or so to progress from initial HIV infection, to full blown AIDS & death. Meanwhile, SARS-CoV-2 was only sequenced about 9 months ago.

            Also, it is quite common for highly infectious diseases to infect and kill many more people in second or third so-called “waves” than in the initial epidemic/new pandemic. The 1918 Spanish flu is a good example of that.

            So, I think that your picture is, at best, badly premature – even if it would be better if I were wrong.

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            1. “quite common for highly infectious diseases to infect and kill many more people in second or third so-called “waves””

              Possibly, but in terms of fatalities there is no real second Italian wave… and the terrible results of the first wave were largely due (according to one account I’ve read) to a panic spiral and a series of missteps by government (like imitating the Chinese communist lockdown policy).
              And in NYC there was Cuomo making things worse by putting infected people into care homes…

              The future is unknowable, but let’s not destroy it economically and socially just yet for fear of what it might bring….

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              1. To my understanding, SARS-CoV-2 is a multi organ pathogen, where the primary disease is a lung disease, which, if survived, is often followed by different disease states. One of those secondary states is a blood vessel disease, with the effect that the blood vessels become “leaky”, which in turn causes clotting disorders, that in turn causes depletion of vital substances plus acute cardiovascular effects like strokes and heart attacks.

                The same kind of cascade can affect the other vital organs, being gut (with severe immune system effects), the kidneys, the liver, the brain, and the heart, each of which is affected secondarily (as with the blood vessels above), that cascades further.

                So, in regards to your statement about there being “in terms of fatalities there is no real second Italian wave”, I can only agree in part, because to my understanding, in the first Italian infection upswing, people were largely dying of the primary lung infection and/or medical error to a far greater degree than any of the secondary disease states. In fact, many Italians were discharged after (mostly, passably) recovering from the primary lung infection and then dying at home from a secondary disease state – particularly heart and blood vessel disease.

                Personally, I think that since it would (logically) take a bit longer for many people to succumb and die from secondary disease states, I think that we probably haven’t seen anything near the full extent of fatalities from the first wave of Italian infections – particularly since we are seeing some people suffer from a resurgence of the disease, with a person (aged 80, cancer patient) being the first documented person to die of a resurgence just yesterday.

                As for what you said about panic spirals, putting infected people into aged care homes etc there is nothing to be said about that, so we are in full agreement there. The way that the crisis was handled – especially in NYC – was, in my opinion, criminal.

                Anyway here’s hoping that things will turn out better from here on out, but given how much damage has been done due to this health crisis being dealt with as if it were a political one…tbh I’m not very hopeful. It’ll get worse before it gets better imo.

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