Flawed Model

These political polls that I’m doing as part of my little gaming addiction are fun. They show me what the Democrats who made the polls think about the people who don’t vote like them.

In their opinion, people who vote Republican share these characteristics:

  1. They are Evangelicals
  2. They own guns
  3. They don’t trust others
  4. They beat children
  5. They listen to the radio
  6. They like Spotify

I don’t know what Spotify is, so I’m a bit mystified by this last point. But it’s always these six things, from one poll to the next. I’m zero for six, so this prediction model is not flawless.

17 thoughts on “Flawed Model”

  1. For what it’s worth…(I had to get up at 5 a.m. to answer a call of nature, so might as well reply before going back to bed):

    I don’t know what idiots come up with these absurd models, but like you, Clarissa, I’m zero for six:

    I’ve been a hard atheist my entire adult life, with no doubts at all as to the correctness of my non-belief. I also believe strongly in abortion rights well into the second trimester, coming to an abrupt halt when the fetus approaches viability in the third.
    I’ve never owned a gun. As an abstract moral position, I have no quarrel with someone defending the slightest piece of his property by blowing away anyone attempting to damage it, but the real-world consequences of such action could be extremely negative for the shooter in both psychological and legal ways.
    I trust people whom I work with (doctors, accountants, hired help) until/unless they give me reason not to. I am quite skeptical of most things I see on television (like how taking pills containing ground-up fruit-and-vegetable extract will make me an expert marathon runner).
    Anyone who beats ANY creature weaker than him (children, wives, small animals) deserves to be beaten senseless or worse, no mercy period.
    The only time I listen to the radio is when I’m driving in my car, and it’s always tuned to an oldies music channel. Talk radio bores the hell out of me.

    ^. What the hell is Spotify??

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Spotify is an app where you can listen to music and podcasts. I actually really like. I’m surprised it’s on the list. Most people at my work use Spotify and most of them are die-hard democrats.

    Very recently Spotify made news because they acquired the Joe Rogan podcast. Joe interviewed people who the Left wants cancelled (I only remember Alex Jones from the top of my head), so the Spotify employees were threatening to quit unless the episodes that triggered them were removed. I don’t know whether it happened or not.

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  3. Clarissa, I really question where you got this “model.” No way in hell Spotify is an indication of a Trump voter. If anything, the opposite should be true.

    For the best scientific and non-partisan (at least they try) I recommend FiveThirtyEight. They have real statisticians and machine learning people working on their models.

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    1. Actually, I finally figured it out. Spotify hosts a guy called Joe Rogan. And he’s some sort of a devil to the Left.

      I had to Google Spotify to figure it out. There’s a massive freakout that has crowds of people boycotting Spotify, etc.

      We are probably a little too long in the tooth to be aware of all this drama.

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      1. Sure, but I would think Trump voters were more likely to have abandoned Spotify by now, because they are agitating so hard to censor Joe Rogan. Which is funny, because Joe Rogan is not remotely conservative, or a Trump supporter. He just doesn’t mind talking to people who are.

        Liked by 1 person

      1. Yes. I enjoy FiveThirtyEight but the editorial bias is very clear. I think their prediction model is at least attempting to be neutral, but it remains to be seen whether it’s accurate. I certainly trust them more than all the morons who gave Hillary a 98% chance in 2016. I saw G. Elliott Morris give Nate Silver crap for “overestimating Trump” earlier this year! Have these people learned nothing? (Yes.)

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  4. A similar list, likely much more accurate, off the top of my head for dependable leftist voters:

    Rootless – no or weak ties to place and family
    Not the slightest grasp or interest in functional economics
    Is scared of guns, and, indeed, any expression of self-reliance.
    Self image has to do with group membership and approval, not personal achievement
    Has deep daddy issues expressed as a need to have the state take care of their psychological needs
    Thinks they love science, but mean by that simply parroting the positions of their tribe with no understanding.

    I could go on. Like all polls, mine is an expression of the pollster’s prejudices, and nothing more.

    Aside: I lost any faith I might have entertained in 538 when they went to the mat defending the perpetrators of fraud involved in what is called the Replication Crisis. That a huge percentage of foundational claims across all the ‘soft’ sciences fail the most basic standards of science is not called what it is – fraud – but instead is given an Orwellian euphemism for a name and explained away with ‘science is hard’.

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  5. I wonder if the purpose of the poll is to make you think this is what a Trump voter is like, so you feel superior to those poor shmucks and inspired to go vote for Biden. I have been seeing a bunch of articles of this sort in the liberal media over the last few days; there was one about how the contents of a Trump voter’s fridge is different from that of a Biden voters (hint: full of soda and junk food), and a couple of others too.

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    1. I would have thought the Trump voters would have red meat and beer in their fridges, and the Biden voters would have soy and tofu.

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      1. Hey, I would have red meat and beer in my fridge, if I was not somewhat gluten-intolerant. So instead of beer I have cider. Therefore, THIS must be the key variable determining political preferences… 🙂 🙂

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    2. That doesn’t even make sense! Maybe I’m missing out because soda and junk foods are absolutely forbidden in our house, but aren’t most of those things shelf-stable? Why would you keep them in the fridge?

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  6. I check three of the boxes and I am a Democrat (I don’t trust others b/c I grew up in a chaotic society plus am and will always be a little alien to the natives here in the Midwest on account of accent; I listen to radio and to Spotify).

    Liked by 1 person

  7. I’m not voting cause I don’t live there… but if I were I’d vote Trump. I don’t expect anything much if anything good from him but I expect catastrophically bad things from Biden for the brief time he’d be in office before Harris took over (and I’d expect catastrophically bad things from her).

    So let’s see…

    “They are Evangelicals” Nope. I’m very non-religious myself (incapable of religious faith) but for most people religion does more good than harm. I don’t agree with Evangelicals about much but I don’t hate or fear or look down on them either. I’ve known a few who were quite acceptable (like just about every other religion).
    “They own guns” Nope. I grew up around them and learned basic gun safety as a child (since forgotten since I’ve never used them since I was a teenager the last time I shot one mumble mumble years ago….
    “They don’t trust others” I don’t reflexively trust or not trust others. I use judgement in deciding how much to trust particular people.
    “They beat children” …. no…. I’m not…. good with kids (I tend to talk to them either like adults or dogs depending on the situation) but beat? No way.
    “They listen to the radio” I like talk radio (and some podcasts and some youtube audio (which I don’t watch but only listen to). I mostly don’t like music radio (even if I like the type of music being played).
    “They like Spotify” I barely know what that is but see the above… I think it’s a music thing and I like to program my own…

    Is that zero for zero?

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