When Did SARS-COV-2 Start?

Well, this is really interesting:

SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy. This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic.

September is a lot earlier than anybody assumed before.

Note that this trial started in September and they found antibodies in September. What if the trial had started in June of 2019?

9 thoughts on “When Did SARS-COV-2 Start?”

  1. There are people where I am who had mystery not-the-flu back in December and January. It very probably started earlier than that, even. But nobody will ever know for sure because there was no testing then.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. So let’s assume prior to September 2019 this thing was out there. Coincidence that in May 2019 China declared a “People’s War” against the US?

    There’s a good article on China in September issue of Imprimis at Hillsdale.edu

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  3. “SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies” means antibodies which bind to that protein. But that doesn’t mean they were produced by an encounter with the Covid virus. See “Pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2”.

    Antibodies are randomly shaped chemicals which get mass-produced if they bind to something interpreted as a pathogen. But they will subsequently also bind to something that’s just similar to the original pathogen. Maybe there was something in Italy’s 2019 flu season that anticipated Covid.

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    1. Maybe there was something already there that got counted as seasonal flu. Or maybe the study is complete bunk. Or maybe it was a different strain of the virus that the Chinese deployed earlier but it failed to produce the desired results.

      Or maybe it’s the same strain that’s been around since summer of 2019 and didn’t produce much excess mortality.

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  4. It was most likely circulating in the first half of 2019 in a significant way since it takes time to get to the percentages mentioned in that study. I’m also expecting someone to go looking through x rays and blood tests starting in late 2018 for the characteristic bilateral pneumonia and INR, followed by exhuming a body or two to prove a time.

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    1. They definitely should. There’s clearly a lot here that we don’t know.

      I’m still curious about those Chinese videos of young people dropping dead of COVID in the middle of the street. Who made them? Who spread them? Why have we never heard of them since? Were the videos made to make us finally notice the virus that has been deployed months before?

      Without those videos we wouldn’t be where they are right now. It’s the hoax of the century.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. In short, the Chinese government only properly learned about the virus in the second week of December 2019. It took them a while to realise how bad it all was and begin censoring in earnest. So, there were a number of videos, reports etc that were available for a small window of time that shut very hard at about the end of February 2019 at which point they were deleted.

        For example, on your blog the other day I said something about a 70 day incubation period in the case of a woman with leukemia who was severely immunocompromised, which came from a report that is only 10 days old as of today.

        The thing is though that I had already read about a Chinese man who incubated for about 90 days and let some people in government know about it sometime in early March, at the same time that various security training companies working for/with government were informing their staff that a 72 day incubation had been observed (that various people were briefed about – not that they understood it anyway). An hour or so after reading it, the report about the Chinese man disappeared.

        Anyway, the videos of people falling down are almost certainly legit (I was watching those ones blip in and out of existence as they were being deleted and reuploaded like a game of whack-a-mole), and were simply videos released and widely spread before heavy censorship in late February or so.

        From around that point though, definitely becoming widespread around March, practically everything revealed to the public was for reasons of manipulation. People were told that masks were useless really because there just weren’t enough masks. People were told not to “hoard” because there were shortages of everything.

        Later on imo what will probably happen is that some work will be done further showing that the virus mutates heavily (which it does), and that the early strain that killed the people in the video affected North Asian people particularly badly (which it does). The same thing will probably happen to explain the strange deviations in deaths between population groups etc a few years from now.

        So, from what I can see, it isn’t a hoax. It’s just a disaster, where many of the shortcomings in the medical/political system were compounded, made worse, and rolled on to reveal and compound problems in the economic/social system, which then affected medicine/politics again, on and on.

        Btw I’d also like to suggest that instead of everyone arguing or picking arguments apart, that we can just watch events in Europe unfold for a while. It should look a lot like Wuhan within a few weeks imo.

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        1. I believe you are incorrect about Europe. Europeans are going the way of mandatory testing of the entire population. Slovakia was the test case over the past few weeks, pronounced it a big success and now Austria is going to follow. Don’t worry, mandatory testing is coming to you in a few months as well.

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          1. @random reader: I could be wrong, but feel sure that I’m not. Slovakia had to borrow trained medics from surrounding nations to do the testing. It has a population of 5 million. Europe has a population of three quarters of a billion and can’t really borrow staff from anywhere.

            Add to that how quickly the weather is worsening, as well as how quickly hospital capacity is being used up, in an overall backdrop of horribly high background infection…nup. The Europeans are in very bad shape. You can practically feel the curve whipping.

            Anyway, time will tell what happens.

            Btw where I live they go out of their way not to test you. Looks bad on the reports.

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