COVID vs Lockdowns

“COVID deaths,” of course, means any deaths that happened for any reason within 60 days of a positive test. So they aren’t really COVID deaths in many cases. But still, the numbers are quite stunning.

8 thoughts on “COVID vs Lockdowns”

  1. An old acquaintance of ours died of covid this week. Of course she was a lifelong heavy smoker, had lung cancer, and was already very ill. Could as easily have been killed by flu or bacterial pneumonia, or any other passing bug. But now she’s a COVID stat instead of a cancer stat.

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  2. Respectfully, may I ask what is stunning about that chart? At a glance I don’t see anything too peculiar about it except that, superficially, I would have expected the 45-64 blue bar to be bigger than the 25-44 blue bar. People who are 45-64 should be dying of things like not having elective surgeries or not seeing doctors about blood pressure at a higher rate than whatever would be killing the much younger 25-44 crowd in excess.

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    1. I would guess that the younger demo is dying of drug overdoses and suicide. I know those are both up, and that’s one of the demos that would be most heavily affected.

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      1. They’re not dying though. That’s what I mean – the 45-64 demographic that you’d expect would be dying much more than usual is dying much less. Breaking it down, the under 25 crowd are basically immortal. They’re dying less than usual probably because they’re stuck at home, not dying in car crashes, not slipping on banana peels – whatever.

        Then at the opposite end, the 85+ crowd is more or less only dying of COVID, with only a few thousand more than usual dying from other causes. You can easily explain that away by saying that they’re the particularly vulnerable to all sorts of viruses let alone this particularly bad one, with a few extra dying because they’re being neglected or not going to the doctor out of fear of infection or something. I mean, I wouldn’t put money on the explanation without looking at the data case by case, but it sounds good enough to leave it aside for a minute.

        Next one down from the old end of the scale is 75-84. They’re dying of COVID almost as much as the 85+ crowd, and something like 8 times more from all causes. In total, there are more dying in this age range than in the 85+ category, which at a guess probably comes from there being more people in the 75-84 age range overall (but you’d check it).

        Next you have 65-74 where nearly equal numbers are dying from COVID and non COVID (COVID slightly ahead by a couple thousand people) but you can’t tell anything from that based on this dataset since there are quite a few people that age plus they start to die at that age in decent numbers/proportion anyway.

        The one that just sticks out and makes me wonder what the heck is happening is 45-64, which has a high COVID death toll (which you’d accept. Why not. Probably loaded towards the higher age range though) but a non COVID death toll that is significantly smaller even than the next youngest bracket. Only 10k or so people are dying in that slot, in a country the size of the US.

        If you assume/suppose that people across the planet are generally similar and consider that in Japan they lose about 2000 people per month to suicide, with Japan being much less populous than the US, then you’d have to attribute every excess non COVID death in that slot to suicide alone then wonder what makes people in the USA so robust that they aren’t keeping pace with the Japanese.

        So yes. Something odd is happening in the 45-64 that I can’t really tell about without looking at the data. Extra suicide yeah okay, wrongfully attributing deaths to COVID yeah sure, but still…it’s odd. Bet it’s the data itself not being normalised ie the 45-64 crowd is simply bigger.

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  3. OT: More things Canada can be proud of! A reporter hangs out counting people in a church so she can narc them out….
    If you ever wonder what kind of person joined the Stasi…

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    1. “More things Canada can be proud of!”

      Historically, Canadians have tended to be more deferential to authority than Americans. But hopeful signs of open, rather than passive, resistance are emerging as the report you point to above on two British Columbia churches shows.

      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/langley-church-fined-2-3k-for-violating-b-c-covid-19-gathering-restrictions-1.5821450

      Similar resistance can be seen in Manitoba.

      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/church-of-god-hanover-manitoba-covid-19-restrictions-1.5821296

      In Toronto, there was a widely-reported restaurant protest last week that ended on the Premier’s lawn. A Go-Fund Me page has raised 300,000$ for the owner’s defence.

      https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/11/26/police-adamson-bbq-covid19/

      Montreal has had several anti-lockdown demonstrations over the last few months, some of them large, including one this weekend.

      https://www.mtlblog.com/en-ca/news/montreal/montrealers-protested-quebecs-covid19-lockdown-on-november-28

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  4. Last I checked, CDC shows 220K excess deaths total so far this year. If the attribution of every excess death shown here to the lockdown is roughly true – seems likely & reasonable – then there are fewer than 100K total deaths caused by COVID, rather than deaths where COVID appears anywhere on the death cert, which is the way you get that 240K number, as you noted. Even that 100K number is almost certainly high, as the bulk of COVID deaths – between 60-70% – were nursing home patients & other very sick elderly people, who had a median life expectancy of about 6 months even if they didn’t catch the virus. Over time, these slightly premature deaths would (if the lockdowns ended) show up as lower deaths in the corresponding age bands over the next year. But the lockdowns, and the deaths they cause, mask this effect.

    Also, could you please post the source link? I know it’s on the picture, but tiny, I can’t quite make it out. Eyes are getting old. Thanks.

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