COVID Graph of the Day

This is a very typical seasonal virus that spreads regionally. The early spike in the Northeast is long gone but many people still live like that spike is ongoing, which is dumb.

All regions go through an identical pattern, though, irrespective of the completely different policies on shutdowns and masking. Obviously, because neither works to stop COVID. They work to achieve other purposes, such as enriching Jeff Bezos while giving people the illusion of control and individual agency, but the pattern of actual COVID deaths has zero interest in our psychological hangups.

And the pattern is identical in Europe, in spite of different measures, etc.

17 thoughts on “COVID Graph of the Day”

        1. “Russian death chart. Same shape as the case chart”

          The case chart is roughly similar in most places though scale is way off. The test (per Chinese Communist Party recommendations) is far too sensitive and brings back huge amounts of false positives but the pattern remains pretty much the same in most places if you use a 7-day moving average.

          An increase of about 6-8 weeks at which point it peaks or plateaus and then falls.
          Daily deaths (also problematically counted) peak on average 10-14 days after the peak of cases. Again the numbers are inflated but the pattern is roughly the same.

          But national charts for large countries with distinct regional environments are not so helpful. But non-Russian Europe has the same pattern everywhere – 6-8 week increase then a stall then a fall. Though different countries are on different cycles… Germany’s second wave started a lot later than Poland’s.

          And in terms of deaths, countries are largely restricted to one big wave, the second wave in countries with large first waves are far smaller on average and countries with very small initial waves are having their big wave now.

          The main country that’s an outlier is Italy but the first wave was restricted geographically (and far worse than it should have been because they followed Chinese Communist Party guidelines and fell into a panic spiral). I assume the rest of the country is having it’s big wave now.

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          1. @ cliff arroyo: I’m not going to make any strong arguments/counter arguments about what various national chart shapes look like because it’s too early to tell (which makes it impolite to be overly insistent about anything), and also because the numbers of both deaths and cases has been skewed by multiple factors, ranging from different implementation of lockdowns to different rates and kinds of testing. Evolving treatment methodology is particularly important for the death charts, which (thankfully) have improved dramatically since March.

            Anyway, what I do want to say, in a way that sort of puts up a signpost/bookmark for a discussion in a few weeks or months, is that the curves on several nations are the inverse of the level of sunlight and temperature. The shape of many charts is like an upside down sunset, if you were to draw one ie both cases and deaths get higher and higher as the winter cold comes in, then diminish to a low when summer heat and length of day are at a maximum.

            Given that vitamin D has proven to be very important in disease progression (and is a predictor of both hospatilizations & death rates) while temperature reduces how long the virus can persist outside of the body (which affects transmission), I personally think that the weather/season are much more important in determining the shapes of these curves than they’re given credit for, and are probably largely the real reason for the bottoming out of cases and deaths that we saw around June/July.

            Based on that, with the information that I have today, my prediction is a general worsening trend of both cases and deaths in the Northern hemisphere that should go up a little bit or down a little bit depending on the country, followed by a lifting of lockdowns in time for Christmas, at which point I think that things will get unexpectedly bad, unexpectedly quickly, followed by everyone freaking out in surprise.

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          2. Russia isn’t interesting as an example of anything because knowing how they do their calculations and how things get reported, nobody can take that seriously.

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            1. “Russia isn’t interesting as an example of anything ”

              Au contraire on amis! It’s an interesting example of lots of things… just none of them very good and in terms of covid none of them very closely related to anything like reality…

              The Ukraine 7-day moving average points to a case peak around Nov 29 and more or less at the plateau stage in terms of daily deaths, probably to start falling in a few days.

              So while the test is too sensitive I think the numbers are proportionate to each other roughly accurate that means when they’re showing 20,000 new cases that means there have been more new cases than when they’re showing 5000 new cases (though again in absolute numbers those are nonsense fairytale figures).

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      1. “We don’t discuss “cases” on this blog”

        Greatly disappointing news for Count von Count – nonetheless he promises he will still be out for the count for his nationally syndicated news segment “The Number of the Day”! (Batty, batty, bat)

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      2. Do we discuss the fact that a now deleted study by Johns Hopkins’ assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program, Genevieve Briand, concluded that there is no evidence that COVID-19 resulted in an excess of deaths? Basically, deaths attributed to COVID-19, would have been attributed to heart disease, respiratory illness, and influenza/pneumonia in any other year.

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        1. Not exactly “deleted” but twice unpublished and twice denounced by the craven, anti-academic, full-on-clownish Editorial Board of the News-Letter of the Students of John Hopkins because, according to their latest denunciation, “the piece was being shared by conspiracy theorists on social media to deny the severity of COVID-19.”

          If one goes to the 2nd denunciation link below, one can find a .pdf of the Briand paper assuming you can hunt out the appropriate link in the text.

          https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/12/on-the-retraction-of-a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-and-our-coverage-of-covid-19

          Academic freedom in 2020? So much horsefeathers!

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  1. Slightly OT: have you seen the latest covid news of the day? Apparently the new Pfizer vaccine has led to some side-effects in the UK, and so they are recommending that people with allergies stay away.

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    1. Missed that one, but did see professor sir John Bell from Oxford University say unprompted in an interview that the vaccine was unlikely to sterilize a whole population, but they would work in 60-70%, and that it would be up to regulators to see if it could be approved as a vaccine. Oxford is working with AstraZeneca to produce a vaccine.

      I don’t know what the professor was talking about, or whether he had a Freudian slip, or if he just got a bit confused and mis-spoke, but the reaction from the interviewer was pretty good.

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        1. It might have been on the forefront of his mind that the virus spike protein is also within the female productive system, which is obviously a big problem, and just gotten his wires crossed when answering the question. Or, he might be a monster. I don’t know. You can watch it here if you like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAV7aZYrddE

          Something interesting, though, is what happens when you type “professor sir John Bell” into both Google and Duckduckgo. On Google, the video linked above doesn’t come up in the video tab. On Duckduckgo, the screen is practically filled with the clip.

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          1. Yeah, I went looking for the video, and I couldn’t find it. But was able to track down that particular gaffe on Bitchute in many, many conspiracy-minded videos! It was not lost on me that search results seemed to be… muffled.

            If anything, that lends credibility to the conspiracy guys– who, without that, would just come off as bonkers paranoiacs. As the saying goes: just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean they aren’t actually following you.

            Thanks for the link!

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            1. @ methylethyl: I have first hand experience with companies like Google being paid large sums of money on an ongoing basis to filter search results on behalf of government – more than a million dollars a month for a small jurisdiction sort of thing.

              Regarding links – anytime 🙂

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