COVID Stat of the Day

As per the CDC, if you are under 50 and moderately healthy, your lifetime chance of dying of sunstroke or accidental electrocution is higher than that of dying from COVID.

If this stat surprises you, please rethink the sources you trust on COVID.

Now let’s make sure that whenever the sun comes out, we force everybody to hide indoors. Got to stop that epidemic of sunstrokes! Stay home, say lives! People are dropping dead of sunstroke like flies.

46 thoughts on “COVID Stat of the Day”

    1. There is variety in the age of her readers. Not all of them are under fifty, sure, but not all of them are older than fifty, either. I discovered this blog when I was seventeen. It’s been almost ten years now and I’m sure I’m not still the youngest.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. All I want is for kids to go back to school and everybody who isn’t in the at-risk group to go back to work.

        This virus doesn’t affect everybody equally. Why is it so hard to transmit this knowledge?

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          1. I’m in academia, so I break out in hives whenever anybody says the word “equity.” It’s always a sign they are out to create a lot of misery.

            We didn’t even have this concept in the USSR it’s so out there.

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            1. It’s a very old concept in South Africa:

              “Below are the possible ways in which the state can help Afrikaners gain their necessary share of commerce and industry. The country’s commerce and industry is still busy developing. In the first place this expansion must be placed at the disposal of the English- and Afrikaans-speaking parts of the population, presently being disadvantaged in these fields.

              Legislation must gradually but purposefully ensure that each white section of the population should, as far as practicable, enjoy a share of each of the major occupations, according to its proportion of the white population.

              This situation is called balanced distribution (ewewigtige verspreiding), but it has also been called a ‘quota system.’ As Jews presently enjoy a disproportionate share of the wholesale and retail trade, such a balanced distribution can be achieved only by refusing them further trading licences, until such a time as the other main population groups, such as English- and Afrikaans-speakers, have gained a proportion which (as far as practicable) corresponds to their percentage of the white population. When trading licences held by Jews lapse due to special circumstances, they may not be allocated to compatriots, until all other population groups have achieved the above-mentioned equal priviliges (gelyke bevoorregting) in this regard. However, this does not include the normal transfer of a business from father to son.”

              –Verwoerd 1937

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    2. I said maybe a million times that I’m fully in support of the 70+ year-olds to self-isolate completely for as long as they want.

      But why are children not in school and students not in class? Why are 30-year-olds out of jobs?

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  1. Oh, but those who want to continue living in fear will reply “But sunstroke isn’t contagious! No one with sunstroke will end up killing the nurse or doctor caring trying to save their lives.” (Please imagine that in the whiniest possible tone)

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The reluctance to expose healthcare workers is one of the most mystifying things going on here. We have no qualms about exposing them to every other illness on the planet, but this one’s so magical that my husband, who’s in a medical training program, missed more than a semester of the most important part of the training that he is paying for: labs and clinical rotations. It’s a respiratory specialist program, and these guys were chomping at the bit to get in and rack up some experience with the new respiratory disease. None of them are in the high-risk group.

      But no, we can’t let students who are training to treat respiratory ailments get any hands-on experience with the current most relevant respiratory disease. They have finally relented, to everyone’s relief. But they can’t get that semester back!

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  2. The metric people in charge of government and health departments look at is the number of hospitalizations. The danger of COVID19 is not its fatality rate, which is very low as you have made it clear, but the fact that it puts people in hospital for many weeks and months. This pushes ICU capacity to a limit and when ICU capacity runs out, everybody regardless of age loses access to proper health care. When ICU capacity runs out, that’s when elective surgeries get cancelled, people don’t get treated properly, or in the worst case triage is implemented.

    The number of hospitalizations across the USA is over 100K as of today. That is 100K more people in hospitals, many taking up ICU space.
    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

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    1. Ah, of course, since nobody is dying, let’s invent new and new metrics. It’s particularly cute given that COVID patients tend to be previously hospitalized for a range of end-of-life issues. Somebody is hospitalized with advanced renal failure, tests positive for COVID – presto! A new COVID hospitalization.

      Or do you sincerely believe that all these hospitalized 90-year-olds were hale and hearty right until they got COVID?

      I highly recommend accessing the death causes of the COVID deaths in your area. They make so many things clear. It’s a litany of deathly illnesses with COVID usually number 4 or 5 on the list of what actually killed the very elderly and infirm person.

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      1. “Ah, of course, since nobody is dying, let’s invent new and new metrics. ”

        It’s always been the metric of importance, since back in March and ever since. The whole initial shutdowns were all about giving hospitals breathing time to expand capacity and get ready.

        “Or do you sincerely believe that all these hospitalized 90-year-olds were hale and hearty right until they got COVID?”

        It doesn’t matter who healthy or old they are, what matters is that they take up hospital and ICU space just the same as a 20 year old would.

        “I highly recommend accessing the death causes of the COVID deaths in your area. They make so many things clear. It’s a litany of deathly illnesses with COVID usually number 4 or 5 on the list of what actually killed the very elderly and infirm person.”

        COVID19 will, without a doubt, be a leading cause of death in 2020. It was the 3rd leading cause of death back in October before the massive surge we’re experiencing right now:
        https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-is-now-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-the-u-s1/

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        1. “It doesn’t matter who healthy or old they are, what matters is that they take up hospital and ICU space just the same as a 20 year old would.”

          Ummm, no.

          Leaving completely aside for the moment the question of whether there are significant numbers of 20 year olds who are hospitalized with COVID, young otherwise healthy people will almost certainly have somewhere to go after their release from hospital thereby relatively quickly freeing up their hospital bed but COVID-admitted seniors who are in frail health and need admittance or re-admittance to a nursing home will likely stay in hospital for an indefinite period as there are no beds for them elsewhere in the system. This has been a chronic and well documented problem here in Canada for several decades before there was any hint of COVID.

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        2. “It’s always been the metric of importance, since back in March and ever since. The whole initial shutdowns were all about giving hospitals breathing time to expand capacity and get ready.”

          In my local area (and possibly everywhere outside of NY state), there was no COVID surge. Ever. Hospitals prepared hard for a surge in March and early April, but they stayed empty all along. In May, many furloughed nurses and staff, because the regular patients were not coming in in fear of covid, and there were just a few covid patients. Even now, one of the regional public health officials have said that the ICU capacity in the entire county is close to what it was in Dec 2018.

          But if you look around: the entire state is in lockdown because we “may” run out of ICU capacity. Do you still believe this crap?

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          1. “But if you look around: the entire state is in lockdown because we “may” run out of ICU capacity. Do you still believe this crap?”

            Look, at the end of the day we’re just a bunch of randos arguing on an internet blog. Nobody here has the burden of making choices that may result in death and suffering on a massive scale. I imagine when a state or country (see Great Britain, Germany, etc.) decides to shut down, that is a decision taken by many people including health policy experts, medical doctors, epidemiologists, statisticians, hospital people, etc. Who am I to tell them I know better?

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            1. “health policy experts, medical doctors, epidemiologists, statisticians, hospital people, etc. Who am I to tell them I know better?”

              You might try using your common sense and stop being so gullible. These are the same morons who said that COVID wasn’t as big a priority as street demonstrations for BLM. The same morons who failed to protect vulnerable seniors in nursing homes leading to many tens of thousands of deaths while locking down the healthy for months. The same morons whose models have failed to accurately predict nearly anything about COVID since the beginning?

              Surely you are not so glued to the official narrative that you don’t know that there are plenty of credible “experts” out there who dispute the assumptions of the so-called “experts in charge?”

              https://gbdeclaration.org/view-signatures/

              Finally, you may wear the “just a bunch of randos arguing” label proudly, but I take some pride in being literate, able to do some relevant research beyond the daily diet of Count von Counts talking heads on the TV, and still being able to think for myself.

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              1. Germany just announced a lockdown. Are you going to tell Merkel, Germany’s 16 states leaders, along with the hundreds of health care experts that recommended the lockdown, that they are wrong and you know better? On what grounds?

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              2. They are advancing the goals of the global technological and financial elites. Just like they did during the global economic crisis of 2008-9. Or are we going to argue that Merkel’s evisceration of Southern Europe in 2008-12 wasn’t terrible and downright evil?

                It’s truly strange to use Merkel as a moral compass. She’s quite a terrible human being.

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              3. This is not about Germany or Merkel, that was just the latest example. Great Britain also recently shutdown, so did France, and many other democratic countries. As a result, things seem to be looking better in Europe.

                Where I live, we also had some additional restrictions and everybody wears masks. As a result, we can still go to indoor dining, malls and stores are opened, and kids can go to school. That has not been an issue for us since April thanks to most everybody being on board with mask wearing and following basic guidelines. It’s almost as if some form of social cohesion and trust in healthcare experts works.

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              4. In neoliberalism, the state stops acting on behalf of citizens and begins to act on behalf of the small deterritorialized elite of large capital holders.

                Where I live, we’ve had a mask mandate since May 1. Everybody complies. There are almost no deaths and those that do exist are of the very elderly. But schools are closed. Everything is closed except Walmart and other huge chains. It’s almost as if somebody is laughing at our pathetic cohesion and trust.

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              5. “If you were a good girl, your mommy wouldn’t hit you. If she hits you, that’s because you are a bad girl. My mommy doesn’t hit me because I’m a good boy. If I were a bad boy, she’s be right to hit me.”

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              6. Yeah, unfortunately Illinois and good governance don’t seem to go together, so I can understand the frustration.

                In terms of neoliberalism benefiting the wealthy at the top, yes of course that has always been the case. Not just in neoliberalism but just about any other type of governance that has been tried from Feudalism, Monarchism, to Socialism and Democracy.

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              7. “As a result, things seem to be looking better in Europe.”

                You can’t say that for certain because we can’t go back and create a do-over where there is no lockdown. And if lockdowns are such a good strategy, why do they need endless extensions to control an infection that they don’t seem to be able to control?

                Ok, riddle me this statistic Batman – lockdown crazy New York State – 1829 deaths per million; no to lite lockdown Sweden – 738 deaths per million. (pro hint: the answer isn’t comparing Sweden to Denmark unless you want me to compare New York to New Jersey or Sweden to UK, France, Spain and Italy.)

                I notice that you don’t respond to specific points that don’t serve your position eg the point that medical experts are divided on whether lockdowns are a good strategy,or that the “lockdown” experts have politicized their advice and been wrong about nearly everything they’ve predicted since last spring.

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            1. How about, in the places where hospitals are overrun, they institute lockdowns. It’s going to make the situation worse but it will soothe the neurotics, so fine. But in low-density areas where hospitals are furloughing staff and are facing bankruptcy, just leave us alone!

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            2. This is precisely why an adequate safety net is important.

              I honestly think there needs to be a rethink of the idea of work. The fact that your health insurance is tied to your work, makes it almost a life and death situation to lose your job. Especially in a pandemic.

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              1. Who said she didn’t have a good safety net? Where did that subject even come from?

                I didn’t say she was destitute. I was merely pointing out that the “hospitals are overcrowded omg” argument is complete bunk in all the places that never had a huge caseload.

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              2. And not just that — hospitals were never overrun anywhere except for NY in March. All the “hospitals are full” scare stories in the media are blatant exaggerations. Many report one hospital in a large city being full, without mentioning there’s another one round the corner that was not. Others report 90% ICU usage — without adding that on the same date in 2019, the usage was 95%. Chicago and MA built extra field hospitals for covid 19 patients at great expense; those remained empty. Healthcare systems are collapsing nowhere; only we are.

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              3. The simple question, what is the baseline?, somehow never gets asked. What’s the normal occupancy rate in winter? What’s considered the optimal rate? Once you find out the answers, panic subsides.

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        3. We’re conflating two metrics here.

          Cause of death for an individual, which only takes into account cases where the cause is present.

          And total deaths in a society per cause of death.

          Were I to shoot somebody in the head, that would be a near 100% fatality rate. But, given how little I do it, the total deaths caused in this way is very close to zero.

          So it’s obviously important how likely you’re to be exposed to the problem to begin with. For sunstroke, that’s largely static, for infectious diseases, that’s a variable that compounds on itself. It’s possible to have more total deaths with a fatality rate lower than being tickled by a mouse if you expose proportionally more people to it, and from what I can tell, that’s what’s been the concern of people who aren’t foaming at the mouth about it.

          Now, Clarissa’s case doesn’t rest solely on interpretation of CoD, and the claim is that Covid is comparatively irrelevant given any reasonable metric, and she has provided multiple others in the past. I just don’t think that’s a reason for a conceptual muddle.

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          1. “Now, Clarissa’s case doesn’t rest solely on interpretation of CoD, and the claim is that Covid is comparatively irrelevant given any reasonable metric, and she has provided multiple others in the past. I just don’t think that’s a reason for a conceptual muddle.”

            The key metric is hospitalizations, not cause of death, which is tangential to what I am trying to get at. Even if there were 10k daily deaths, but the hospitalization rate was stable and there were plenty of hospital bed space and ICU capacity, nobody would be asking for lockdowns. It’s the high rate of hospitalization coupled with nearing ICU capacity that scares the crap out of health officials, and I understand them because if they run out of hospital space that’s a very serious situation.

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            1. That’s honestly the first time I’m hearing about hospitalizations as a core metric of concern.

              They’ve been a secondary metric of concern since the start, that’s true, but only insofar as hospital capacity was deemed insufficient for combined usual cases plus the expected serious Covid cases, not as secondary cases being the core driver of mortality and Covid cases glutting up the works.

              It’s also my understanding that there was never a plan in place that didn’t assume hospital capacity being near immediately maxed out, the difference between lockdown and no lockdown being by how much (better under lockdown) and how long (worse under lockdown).

              Hospitals being under capacity as described upthread shouldn’t really be a thing at all, under those assumptions.

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          2. “Were I to shoot somebody in the head, that would be a near 100% fatality rate. But, given how little I do it, the total deaths caused in this way is very close to zero.”

            LOL

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  3. “That’s honestly the first time I’m hearing about hospitalizations as a core metric of concern.”

    It has always been the underlying most important metric. Case numbers or even death numbers don’t mean anything in a vacuum because as Clarissa rightly points out, those are not terrible numbers when looked at superficially.
    The problem is that even if it’s a small percentage of people who end up in the hospital they remain there for weeks or months. Even if it doesn’t sound like 100K people is a lot, that’s 100K that are going to be sucking up vital resources for weeks if not months.

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  4. “of neoliberalism benefiting the wealthy at the top, yes of course that has always been the case”

    See you’ve been so coopted that you think of it as being as natural as water… the New Deal (the political paradigm that preceded neoliberalism) was far more centered on prioritizing citizen needs… Eisenhower was a republican but some of his quotes sound almost like Bernie Sanders.

    My personal opinion is that neoliberalism is in fact ending in the US – it’s just being replaced by a tech-oligarchy which is arguably worse as more and more wealth becomes concentrated in fewer and fewer hands who have no formal positions that citizens have any way of ended… you can vote a bad neoliberal out of office but Bezos? Gates? Oligarchs for life.

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    1. “See you’ve been so coopted that you think of it as being as natural as water… the New Deal (the political paradigm that preceded neoliberalism) was far more centered on prioritizing citizen needs… Eisenhower was a republican but some of his quotes sound almost like Bernie Sanders.”

      No, I’m just a realist. There will always be hierarchies as they are almost a biological certainty in humans. For there to be hierarchies, there have to be people at the top and people at the bottom. That has been the case throughout history and will continue to be the case in the future. It’s just a matter of who wide the gap is.

      “My personal opinion is that neoliberalism is in fact ending in the US – it’s just being replaced by a tech-oligarchy which is arguably worse as more and more wealth becomes concentrated in fewer and fewer hands who have no formal positions that citizens have any way of ended… you can vote a bad neoliberal out of office but Bezos? Gates? Oligarchs for life.”

      The crazy thing is that this is nothing new and we know what can be done to alleviate it.
      It’s called increasing taxation on the mega rich and taking the hammer to these companies that have become monopolistic. But there is just no appetite for that apparently.

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  5. I had not heard it. You did not provide a link, so I looked it up. So far, the numbers I am seeing would suggest that being a “moderately healthy” adult in the U.S. is pretty unusual.

    Death by age group from COVID-19: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
    Deaths by electrocution (total) (sorry, not from the CDC this time): https://www.esfi.org/workplace-injury-and-fatality-statistics
    Heat-related deaths (total): https://www.cdc.gov/pictureofamerica/pdfs/picture_of_america_heat-related_illness.pdf
    For comparison, leading causes of death by age group: https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2017-508.pdf

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    1. I mean that the number of deaths from COVID-19 for 35-44 year olds alone (4917 so far this year) is higher than the number of deaths from electrocution (a couple hundred per year) and heat disease (about 658 per year) for all age groups combined.

      I was trying to give you the benefit of the doubt about your statement possibly being true for select “moderately healthy” people.

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      1. It’s a lifetime chance, not a per year chance.

        But hey, what’s with the sudden attack of rudeness? I don’t need your benefit. Want to sit in lockdown? Go right ahead. Nobody is about to drag you out and force you to live a normal life.

        I like it how COVIDIOTS just completely lose it when somebody points out they have wasted months of their lives on a completely needless lockdown.

        Like

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