I just watched Russian news. Now I have no doubt that Russia will invade the Eastern part of Ukraine and annex the areas where Lugansk, Kharkov, and Donetsk are located. This is where all of my relatives reside.
Everything in the newscast made it clear that the invasion of these areas will happen.
From the way the Russians have arrayed their forces on the border, it’s pretty clear an invasion is going to happen.
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Here’s the map with the disposition of forces: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-13/where-russian-troops-are-full-pre-takeover-infographic.
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Sean , this is a map that has been posted on the www for weeks.
Where are the US intelligence satellite photos of these 100,000 troops and military vehicles and tanks ? During the build up to the Gulf War we had lots of images about this. Where does PR stop and Reality start ? I live in Kharkiv Ukraine and actually being here is different to what is portrayed on the web. I was out in the city centre last night and there was no feeling that the Russian tanks were just about to arrive. The restaurant we were in was full. There was no demonstrations in Freedom Square. The atmosphere was normal and calm , not one of fighting and panick. Only 5 policemen were in the main square guarding the Governors office as I walked past at 11:30pm . There are no Ukraine military in Kharkov at all. Surely if there was a definate threat that the Russians were just about to drive down Sumska Street in tanks this weekend , into the second largest and important city of Ukraine , don’t you think there would be a bigger presence than that ?
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“Where are the US intelligence satellite photos of these 100,000 troops and military vehicles and tanks ?”
Why would it be in the US’s interest to reveal its intelligence sources and methods to the Russians? We’d only be helping them better conceal their forces. That would be stupid. However, US intelligence agencies have expressed alarm at the buildup along the border. (See http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/27/us-ukraine-crisis-pentagon-idUSBREA2Q22P20140327)
And given the wonderful freedom of press in Russia, do you really think Putin would allow journalists to come and have a photo op with military units?
“There are no Ukraine military in Kharkov at all. Surely if there was a definate threat that the Russians were just about to drive down Sumska Street in tanks this weekend , into the second largest and important city of Ukraine , don’t you think there would be a bigger presence than that ?”
Given the “inspired” Ukrainian defense of Crimea, I’m not surprised at all. Additionally, if Putin moves in, you’ll see the Spetznaz come first (i.e., those strange commandos who never seem to be wearing any Russian identification. And earlier reports suggest some are already there). If Russia comes, they’ll try to do it bloodlessly like they did in the Crimea. Then the tanks will follow. I don’t dispute your concern that some of the numbers may be inflated. It looks like the current estimate is at 30,000 troops, but the Russians are still deployed in a way that gives Putin the option to take over Eastern Ukraine.
The fact that “The atmosphere was normal and calm” suggests that Putin’s information campaign is working (or perhaps you’re part of it?). Plus, as of 2001, 66% of Kharkov’s population consists of native Russian speakers. I’m not so sure many of its citizens would be against rejoining Russia (see http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10729029/Viktor-Yanukovych-urges-Ukraines-regions-to-hold-more-referendums-on-status.html).
Military analysts base their opinions on hard data, not feelings. And the data suggests that Putin is deploying his forces for a gambit in Eastern Ukraine. Moreover, if Putin is smart, and he is, he’ll move his troops in using fake quasi-legal means like demanding referenda in Eastern Ukraine. Oh, wait, the former Ukrainian leader already is (see http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10729029/Viktor-Yanukovych-urges-Ukraines-regions-to-hold-more-referendums-on-status.html).
“Only 5 policemen were in the main square guarding the Governors office as I walked past at 11:30pm .”
By the way, why are you out counting policemen guarding the Governor’s office at 11:30 pm?
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“I was out in the city centre last night and there was no feeling that the Russian tanks were just about to arrive. ”
– This is not a question of feelings. We are discussing intelligence information that exists in the realm of data.
“Surely if there was a definate threat that the Russians were just about to drive down Sumska Street in tanks this weekend , into the second largest and important city of Ukraine , don’t you think there would be a bigger presence than that ?”
– No, I don’t. Ukraine is not prepared to go into a war with Russia and have people die. Ukrainian government has made it abundantly clear that it was not considering a military option.
And since you are in Ukraine, I’m sure you know that the environment you describe was exactly the one experienced by everybody in Ukraine and Russia on June 21, 1941. People also felt completely safe and experienced no panic. You certainly know what happened on the next day.
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it’s just one set of titans removing the other set of titans,
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😦
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Some subtle insinuation aboutthe wrong sort of hair cuts?
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