So we have discussed the death of the nation-state at length. Now that borders mean less and less and warfare can be waged without asking citizens to sacrifice their lives, the question arises as to what form the new contract between the state and the individual will take.
This is a change that is in the process of occurring right now, so nobody knows for sure what the results will be. Many different scenarios have been advanced, and I find all of them somewhat unconvincing.*
The twentieth century saw a dramatic improvement in the standard of living (especially in the older nation-states because they’d had more time to perfect the terms of the contract between individual and state.) The state was invested in making sure that everybody was more or less content because, in the case of war, it would need people from all social classes to fight.
The future wars are wars of information, technology, security measures, communications, engineering, IT. It makes sense to expect the state to strengthen its contract with those who can help in this kind of war effort, kicking to the curb those who don’t. Obama’s reiterated statements that not everybody needs an education are a sign that the formation of a two-tier society is under way and is being conducted very consciously. Yesterday’s SCOTUS ruling is also part of this effort.
There is a lot of discussion about the growth of inequality these days. I believe that these discussions miss the point completely. We are gliding towards something enormously bigger than inequality. There will be a very large group of people who will be stateless within a state. They will have no contract with the state because the state has no use for them in case of war.
* Every scenario I have read includes the inevitable erosion of the welfare state. I can talk about alternative scenarios later if people are interested.

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