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Economic Predictions for 2015

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Clarissa

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Here is an interesting article with economic predictions for 2015. I agree with all of them except #1. But that’s probably because it’s worded too emotionally.

There is also a great link within that link which offers a very good explanation for the wage stagnation in the US. The short resume: irrespective of how much the GDP grows in the US, wages will not experience significant growth until we acquire the kind of skills that somebody in China or elsewhere isn’t offering much more cheaply. In short: massive and intensive education for the majority will win world dominance for whomever wants it.

10 responses to “Economic Predictions for 2015”

  1. Vic Crain Avatar
    Vic Crain

    I read the article and found nothing particular risky or exceptional. Virtually all are easy to accept. (Will Greece vote itself out? Don’t know.)

    The GOP has as its first priority in the new Congress the increase in H1-B quotas. That’s empowering more foreign workers instead of training people in the US for those jobs. That could become a very hot political issue if someone chose to promote it. That would be interesting.

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    1. Clarissa Avatar
      Clarissa

      H1B students are all trying to stay. As things stand now, they get deported two seconds after graduating. This is wrong, unfair and silly. The Republicans have been trying to get green cards for such talented graduates instead of handing them out through a lottery for a while. For obvious reasons, I applaud this initiative.

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  2. cliff arroyo Avatar
    cliff arroyo

    “wages will not experience significant growth until we acquire the kind of skills that somebody in China or elsewhere isn’t offering much more cheaply”

    Sounds like a good idea.

    “In short: massive and intensive education for the majority will win world dominance for whomever wants it”

    Except as long as thousands and thousands of Chinese are getting graduate education at US universities there’s no chance of acquiring skills that the Chinese can not do more cheaply….

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    1. Clarissa Avatar
      Clarissa

      There is over a billion people in China. A thousand graduates (most of whom don’t even return) are not a significant force.

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  3. aglaonika Avatar
    aglaonika

    “wages will not experience significant growth until we acquire the kind of skills that somebody in China or elsewhere isn’t offering much more cheaply”

    American wages haven’t been reasonable for a long time. Now little Chinese come and prick this HUGE balloon by bringing the jobs to their country. Outsourcing and remote working are the cool things today. The emigration of some Asian students is only a statistical noise.

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    1. Clarissa Avatar
      Clarissa

      I’m hearing that the Chinese are no longer working for the subsistence wages. Not that it changes anything in the grand scheme of things. Manufacturing positions (the ones that haven’t been robotized yet) are being outsourced elsewhere.

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      1. aglaonika Avatar
        aglaonika

        Yes, fortunately they earn much more than let’s say 10 years ago, I also heard about that. But it’s not only the money. I saw some Chinese working back in Hungary (we have many Chinese immigrants there). Their working moral is unbelievable. They work fast, hard, long and with minimum mistakes. Even Eastern Europeans have no chance to compete with that. Now I see the same thing happening in the technology sector, the Asians rock, I just look at them as a stupid sheep to Superman. I could never do that what they can. If a company has to pay the same wage to a Chinese (or other Asian) and an American (or a European) the Chinese will still produce more value to the company. I strongly believe that we have to begin to learn from them, because it’s not just the money why they’re worth more from a business/employment point of view.

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        1. cliff arroyo Avatar
          cliff arroyo

          “I saw some Chinese working back in Hungary (we have many Chinese immigrants there). Their working moral is unbelievable. They work fast, hard, long and with minimum mistakes.”

          Are Chinese still arriving? The last few times I’ve been there they, at least in the immigrant entry kinds of places, seem to have been supplanted by Vietnamese (who are, if anything, even more driven than the Chinese).

          I remember talking to a Vietnamese woman in Poland, her son was doing two full time degree programs working part time but thought he had too much free time and was looking to start a business….

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          1. aglaonika Avatar
            aglaonika

            Chinese mainly came in the 90s, as back then we were the only country in Europe where they didn’t need a visa. The European Chinese Commercial Centre is in Budapest, and many of them work there – or in a related business. Others still come as family members. There’s also a big Chinese school in the 15th district and it’s still full of kids, so I suppose there are still many young families, however I think less of them arrive now than in the 90s. Hungarians like Chinese btw, or at least I never met anyone who had problems with them. I only met Vietnamese as students, but they were all very dedicated, the same that you described – more than one majors, plus one or two workplaces, I don’t know how they do it, they’re really like superhumans to me.

            I think they don’t look at work the same way as Americans or Europeans do, they don’t seek for work-life balance, but for them work equals to life. They also don’t get pissed of if they can’t climb the corporate ladder that fast, loyalty and stability is more important for most of them than power-and attention seeking. If they have 2 free days in the weekend, they won’t have a rest, but start a business, or apply for a second job, or sthg like that. I think humans were originally like that everywhere, but people in the developed world just got spoiled – and that’s why I’m okay with the competition with the Asians, because this way I’m at least forced to improve myself. Otherwise I would be too lazy to get bothered with things like that, and just grow my ass in a comfy armchair – which is not a really interesting life.

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  4. Editor (Retired) Avatar
    Editor (Retired)

    My resolution for 2015 is to read Thomas Piketty, and then I will comment further. Right this minute, I doubt that any nation-state, corporation or organization is going to win world dominance, at least not in this century.

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A conservative literary critic and college professor

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