International Energy Agency says that the price of petrol will go up to $80 per barrel from today’s price of $47 by 2020. This is not good news. If Putin manages to stick it out till then (and why wouldn’t he?), then after oil prices shoot back up, we’ll never get a chance to get rid of him.
3 responses to “Bad News from IEA”
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To give you a little hope, the IEA and pretty much all projections are this are little better than sticking a finger up in the air and doing a WAG – wild ass guess.
Oil is priced at the margin, so if demand or supply were to change by even say 3-5 million barrells (we use around 90 million a day for perspective), prices could be off by 2x (so basically a range of 40 -160 doesn’t totally suprise me)
But, long-term oil will decline. If you have any big hope, follow / wish for improvements in battery technology. There have been many, but still in the works. If / when batteries are produced in mass under $100 kwh, oil will be greatly affected. It will happen, just is it 5 years, 15 years etc.
And as I have said before (and we agreed!) crushing oil prices should be the liberal / green movement’s messaging to defeat russia / iran / venezula, etc. This can be the drum beat to spur more money both to deal with climate change and weaken / destory countries which only exist due to high oil prices.
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A great, hopeful comment. Thank you, Matt.
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Continuing Matt’s comment, here’s a look at futures markets for Brent crude:
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Crude_Oil_Brent/CB?search=CB*
Oil futures generally trade well in advance for December futures because of various strategies, including blatant speculation, consumer sentiment, and investment tax considerations — that’s why you’ll see light activity for CBZ20 and CBZ21, with minimal to zero activity for any other futures during 2020 and 2021.
Even the daily high for CBF20 (Jan 2020) is nowhere near 80 USD — it’s currently hovering around 62 USD as nearly pure speculation.
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A conservative literary critic and college professor
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