Moody’s Report on Trump

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Clarissa

June 23, 2016

As much as I don’t want to defend Trump. Moody’s report on the consequences of a Trump presidency is dumb. See this part, for instance:

As the immigrants leave, the already-tight labor market will get tighter, pushing up labor costs as employers struggle to fill the open job positions. Many of these positions will go unfilled because, by the time the Trump administration is under way, the U.S. is expected to be at full employment, meaning there will be no slack labor out of which to hire workers.

OK, let’s not pretend to be greater asses than we are. This “full employment” includes millions of people working fewer hours than they would like and / or for lower wages than they’d prefer. There is an enormous number of workers who would be willing to fill these positions if wages were higher. The whole deporation plan is a way to drive up the stagnant wages. I don’t agree with the plan, I don’t like it but nobody has come up with an alternative way to end wage stagnation. The plan to increase the minimum wage will only work if it’s accompanied by massive deportation, and it will only attempt to help the least qualified workers.

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2 responses to “Moody’s Report on Trump”

Shakti

June 24, 2016

Nothing works unless you find a way to limit the movement of capital whilst limiting the movement of people and implementation of robots. Capital is forever chasing the most downtrodden cheapest labor it can find. I don’t know why masses of unskilled and skilled workers don’t make global common cause with each other. There is also a huge employer bias towards people who are currently employed so really these employers complaining about not being able to fill positions is about them chasing the same group of people who have options but won’t take bad wages and conditions.

Where I live there are several hotels that wanted a night auditor. When I asked about it for someone else, they said “In addition to reviewing receipts, this person has to roust people from the property in the dead of the night by themselves and this pays minimum wage. This position is open because the last person smoked marijuana.” Me:”No wonder this position has been open for so long.”

I don’t think deportation is going to work as well as people are hoping to raise wages. The people who hire illegal immigrants for jobs aren’t going to suddenly turn around and hire someone who is legally here at a legal wage, no matter how low it is. They’ll find a way to underpay either through shorting hours, misqualifying workers or paying under the table. I’ve seen this with several businesses. It’s not even cost or efficiency, it’s “how many laws can I break that my workers won’t call me on.”

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1. Clarissa
  
  June 24, 2016
  “Where I live there are several hotels that wanted a night auditor. When I asked about it for someone else, they said “In addition to reviewing receipts, this person has to roust people from the property in the dead of the night by themselves and this pays minimum wage. This position is open because the last person smoked marijuana.” Me:”No wonder this position has been open for so long.””
  
  And no wonder the last person smoked marijuana in such a crappy job.
  
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