The Spanish newspaper El Pais published an article today claiming that most historians agree that without Gavrilo Princip’s murder of Archduke Franz-Ferdinand exactly 100 years ago, the two world wars would not have begun.
This is, of course, a ridiculous lie because every historian I have ever read (and I read a lot of history) insists that Princip was completely insignificant and the war of 1914-1991 was inevitable. Gavrilo Princip is barely a footnote in scholarly studies of World War I.
Newspapers totally suck. And with the sorry state of the study of history in Spain, such narratives are quite dangerous because of how stupid and uninsightful they are. Epochal conflicts don’t start because an insignificant little fellow freaked out and did something. Even Hitler would have achieved nothing if millions weren’t ready joyfully to shove Jews into ovens.
Look at Putin today, for instance. He isn’t even remotely scary by himself. It is the enormous support he’s getting from the Russian people that makes him terrifying.
Clarissa's Blog 
The wars needed a reason, whether the assassination or something else. Once mobilization happened, there was no mechanism for peaceful demobilization. However, no one mobilized before Princip shot the Archduke.
Given the blood relationships between the Tzar, Kaiser and British King, there was actually good reason for war not to happen. Yes, there were militant expansionists in these countries, just as there are militants today who want a nuclear war that will bring about the second coming of Jesus. (Yes, these people exist; there are probably some near where you live. Missouri doesn’t have a monopoly on nutcases, but it has quite a few.) However, the militants had only succeeded in creating minor wars between the Russians and Japan, between Britain and Zulus, between Britain and Islamic extremists in Sudan, between Spain and the US, as well as incursions into China. These conflicts created limited casualties, and may have contributed to the hubris surrounding the start of WWI.
In the absence of war in Europe, there probably would have been remote conflicts, involving colonies in Africa or Asia. However, I see nothing that says that 14 million deaths were inevitable or that places like Verdun and Tannenberg were predestined to be infamous.
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Have you see this? http://themetapicture.com/if-wwi-was-a-bar-fight/
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Hilarious!
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“Even Hitler would have achieved nothing if millions weren’t ready joyfully to shove Jews into ovens.”
They knew nothing about it.
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Yes, Hitler killed all those millions of people completely on his own and in secret.
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No doubt the people all just assumed that their Jewish neighbours were going away on prolonged vacations.
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And were leaving their property for the neighbors to loot because this is just a Jewish tradition.
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The world wars began because I stubbed my toe.
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The modern media is obsessed with the idea that it is individuals, rather than impersonal forces, which shape the world. Crediting Gavrilo Princip with all of the conflicts of the 20th century is an extension of this.
It makes for a better story, but it is very bad history.
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Exactly! This bugs me beyond what I can express.
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