The Nuclear Option

Not to freak anybody out or anything, but:

. . . President Vladimir Putin, at a youth forum north of Moscow last week, reminded the world that “Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear nations. This is a reality, not just words.”

Fifteen days earlier, on Aug. 14, at a conference in Yalta, the Russian president had told the assembled factions of the State Duma that he soon planned to “surprise the West with our new developments in offensive nuclear weapons about which we do not talk yet.” This came as Russian strategic nuclear bombers and fighter jets have been accused of violating the airspace of the United States and Western European countries with mounting frequency, while under the surface of the world’s seas Russian and U.S. nuclear submarines have been involved in confrontations recalling the worst days of the Cold War. As NATO leaders convene for their summit in Wales, Russia just announced that its strategic nuclear forces will hold exercises of unprecedented dimensions this month. And the Kremlin, for its part, just declared that it will amend its military doctrine to reflect Russia’s growing tensions with NATO. What this means exactly remains unclear, but in view of the rising tensions with the Western alliance, it cannot be good.

Putin is winning his war against the West, which is precisely the goal he set himself in Ukraine. His soldiers in Ukraine are convinced they are fighting Americans. The news that there is not a single US or NATO soldier in Ukraine has not been able to penetrate the thick haze of Putin’s propaganda. In their minds, not only has the Cold War been revived, it has turned hot quite a while ago. And a hot war between Russia and the West always raises the scariest question of all.

I’ve been fearing a nuclear strike from Russia since Putin brought troops across the border completely openly, without trying to mask them any longer, in August, and the West still did absolutely nothing. Putin has been trying to palpate the boundaries of what the world allowed him to do. He’d do something, wait for a reaction, not see any, and proceed to do something bigger. 

Unlike the author of the linked article, I don’t believe Putin will strike at Poland or any of the NATO countries. My fear is that he will strike Ukraine. Of course, this will all be presented as an unfortunate mistake, a terrorist plot, an instance of idiot Ukrainians nuking themselves, or all of the above. Obama will make another speech, everybody will flap their wings and say that now for sure and sure and sure Putin will realize how badly he is losing this conflict and stop. 

And then Russia will realize that the boundary still hasn’t been reached and will take another step.

I don’t want to fear-monger but it preoccupies me that nobody outside of Russia realizes to what a scary extent paranoia, rage and resentment are consuming the people of that country. Russia will continue moving ahead on its route because it has been given no reason to stop.