People are asking if Putin has been defeated by the Iran deal. Of course, the deal will deliver yet another blow to Russia’s economy, but here’s the problem: Putin has never cared about this kind of thing.
In reality, the deal is a big win for him.
First of all, he achieved his greatest motivational dream that inspires everything he does: Americans asked for his permission to do the deal. Kerry lowered himself to traveling to Sochi and asking like a supplicant. This is what Putin lives for. What does he care about the economic well-being of Russians when he can finally get his heart’s greatest desire?
Also, Putin is very favorably inclined towards the Irani leadership. He likes Iran’s history of defying the US and winning. He shares Iran’s authoritarianism, likes the usefulness of religious fundamentalism, admires the subjection of women and gays, and enjoys the anti-Israel rhetoric. Any win for a regime of such a great affinity to Putin’s is pleasing to Russia’s leader.
This is a good moment for Putin right now. He has demonstrated to the world that he can do anything he wants, bomb, annex, invade, excoriate the US, and Americans will still come hat in hand, humbly begging for his support. He always articulated very clearly that this was his only goal.
None of this means that the Iran deal is a bad idea. But we need to understand what is actually happening if we are to have any impact on the world.
P.S. I don’t know if I need to mention this, but I don’t come up with these posts on my own. I read a lot of articles by political analysts who specialize in Russia before I reach any conclusion. I hate simplistic, knee-jerk responses to any complex phenomenon.