The main motivating fear of the Russian political establishment is that the country will fall apart.
The territory is enormous and sparsely populated. It’s inhabited by people of different races, ethnicities, languages, and cultures who don’t have much in common and tend to dislike each other. People who live in the humongous greater Moscow despise everybody else and everybody else despises them. There is no discourse of shared values that would be meaningful to everybody.
None of this sounds like a working nation-state, does it?
It’s impossible to bind such a heterogeneous group together with its meaningless, recently adopted symbols of nationalism and no time or resources to manufacture a shared history and artistic legacy.
So what do such wannabe nation-states do to stay afloat? They cultivate a sense of togetherness by spilling the blood of a shared enemy. Blood ties them together but if no other means of cohesion are found, more blood will be needed.
Is it clear what I’m saying? Nobody can provoke Russia into violence right now. Russia is acting out violently in pursuit of national cohesion, i.e. a completely internal need that has nothing to do with you or anybody else.

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