War Update

Unless you speak Ukrainian or Russian, my updates are probably the freshest you will find. Everything on TV is stale and useless.

June is going to be a terrible month of war for Ukraine. The US has not sent the heavy weaponry promised weeks ago. There doesn’t seem to be any indication when shipments will happen.

There’s enormous pro-Russia pressure in Europe because everybody is terrified of the balance of power in Europe changing too much. Germany, France and Italy are aggressively pushing towards freezing the war. This was done in 2014, and we’ve seen the result. Now there are efforts to engineer the same thing all over again. The power in the US is sclerotic. Decisions are made but nobody carries them out. There’s a lot of virtue-signaling but very little action.

The initial support for Ukraine was enormous. But that lasted until it became possible for Ukraine to win. And that win would dramatically reshuffle the existing state of affairs. What if Germany becomes less powerful in Europe? What if France becomes completely irrelevant? What if people in the US notice that their two-party system is a sham? Nobody knows but the possibility is scary for many.

World’s leading countries are ruled by people who want us, the citizens, to be ready to adapt to any upheaval. They want us to be endlessly fluid, malleable and ready to embrace change. But they don’t want to do the same. Change is hard. Risk is unpleasant. What if a new distribution of power in the world makes the old elites not that necessary or important? They don’t want that. They want to sit there, comfortable and rich, lecturing us sleepily about the need to take more risks.

In the end, they won’t have a choice. Ukraine will win. Globalism will lose. The old guard with its ossified ideas will be replaced by people who have new insights.

55 thoughts on “War Update

  1. OT: I finally have medical answers. It’s a chronic autoimmune disorder triggered by covid and severely exacerbated by the vaccine. The person I spoke with at my PCP office acted like this was the most horrible outcome. I almost wanted to stop her right there and tell her I’m actually relieved. I’m not dying, this disorder isn’t the kind of death sentence it used to be, and it’s very manageable at the stage it’s in. Honestly I’m glad I pushed for more testing because now I have answers and an evaluation/treatment plan. And if this medication helps with my long covid—maybe the long covid was just that all along.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. God. I’m so sorry you have this disorder. But I’m glad you have gotten the diagnosis and are getting treatment. Sending good wishes your way!

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  2. I get the feeling there is also a sense of fatigue about this war, and I’m sure many are glad that Kyiv didn’t fall, but care less about Donbas, which is where most of the attacks are happening. I’ve also read Ukrainians from Lviv and the west are less inclined to want to sacrifice themselves for Donbas, do you think there is any truth to this?

    Ukraine hasn’t yet mobilized a significant part of their reserves. I’m wondering when that may happen.

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    1. This is the graphic I look at when my spirits flag. It does help. Things were really scary in late February – early March. I don’t think my father’s illness would have developed as quickly if it weren’t for the stress of the war. Every morning I would check if Zelensky had survived through the night because I knew my father wouldn’t be able to take it if something happened to him.

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  3. Macron may be defeatist, yet another not unimportant Western person voices the opposite position:

    // Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have marked the start of “a third world war,” and Russian President Vladimir Putin must be defeated “as soon as possible” if the world wants to preserve civilization.

    That was the stark message that Hungarian-born billionaire and philanthropist George Soros delivered on Tuesday to attendees at the 2022 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

    “Even when the fighting stops, as it eventually must, the situation will never revert” to where it was before, warned the 91-year-old Soros. //

    Who was more important before, during covid f.e., the global forces represented in the World Economic Forum or Macron?

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  4. Turns out Russian army shouldn’t be judged too badly for its incompetence. Benito Mussolini’s army wasn’t better.
    Here is a good historical post which surprised me:

    Начиная с прихода Муссолини к власти и вплоть до вступления во Вторую мировую войну, Италия только и делала, что маршировала на парадах, бряцала саблей, надувала щёки, хвасталась лучшими в мире секретными оружием и рассказывала, как покарает весь мир от Европы к Неве на восток и возродит Римскую Империю.

    Италия обладала всеми задатками для создания мощной армии.

    Однако, этого, мягко говоря, не было сделано. Итог двух десятилетий фашистской милитаризации выглядел так, будто в каждой области военного строительства поработала целая банда вредителей.

    https://mi3ch.livejournal.com/5377824.html

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  5. “I’m sure many are glad that Kyiv didn’t fall, but care less about Donbas…”

    I personally detest Putin, and think it’s important that he end up VERY bloodied and bruised after daring to start an unprovoked war against a sovereign nation at this time in history. We should continue to give Ukraine all the war materiel that it needs without whining that we can’t afford it (we can) or that Putin might be provoked into starting World War III (he won’t. He’s an idiot, but he’s not insane).

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Exactly. The world can’t go through a replay of this madness every several years. There should be punishment for threatening nuclear war.

      Thank you for the support. It matters a lot.

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  6. “There’s a lot of virtue-signaling but very little action.”

    TBH I think the US has a history of arming “its” side in a conflict enough to keep the conflict going but not to win.

    France and Germany are as terrified of the idea of a Putin-free Russia as the fascist babushkas and vatniks are.

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  7. Israel lets down Ukraine….. again!

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    1. .> “Israel has rejected a U.S. request to allow Germany to send Spike anti-tank missiles to Ukraine…”

      How contemptible — a gutless betrayal by a U.S. ally whose survival has depended for decades on unconditional support from America (in the Congress, at the U.N.,and in military arms and money).

      Now Israel is more afraid of offending Putin than in showing loyalty to its only real-world benefactor, whose financial and political support has kept that flawed nation alive since 1947.

      I can’t deny that as of today, the Israeli government has more reason to keep Putin pleased (to help keep the situation in Syria stabilized), than it has to address the whims of our senile President — but this is a transient situation, and perhaps America’s 2022/2024 leaders will have a long memory and be slow to forget.

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      1. Exactly. Israel exists thanks to American taxpayers who send endless streams of money yearly. This is not a productive strategy for Israel.

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    2. People outside Israel do not know this, but the current Israeli government — formed after several rounds of elections — is extremely unstable and threatens to fall several times a week. The smallest need to decide on anything provokes a crisis.

      Netanyahu’s Liqud (meaning ‘unity’ in English) party in opposition even refused to vote for a law to increase funding of academic education for combat soldiers, a true uniting point in Israeli society and politics. Why? Because they want the current government to fall. This was said directly.

      This endless internal crisis may explain Israeli international behavior. Everybody is concentrating on domestic politics, and afraid / unable to do the smallest thing neither internally nor internationally.

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      1. “Netanyahu”

        Why is he still in politics? He has nothing to contribute? Does he have to try to stay out of jail or something?
        It sounds like Israel is confronting systemic political failure. The dinosaur turds need to vacate the public space and let newer fresher people take over.
        Netanyahu is doing more damage to Israel than the Palestinians ever could…

        Liked by 1 person

  8. Just a thought – a considerable number of persons outside the US sphere of influence believe that if Ukraine wins, globalism wins. This is of course directly opposed to your sentiments. Could they be right?
    I don’t claim to know the answer. A friend (university prof) living in Donbas tells me she’d prefer Russia and Ukraine both eff off and leave them alone.

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    1. No, they are wrong. The former president of Russia Medvedev said clearly that Russia’s goal is one large borderless space “from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” The conflict between Putin and the Davos globalists isn’t whether globalism is good. They agree that it’s fantastic. Their conflict is which one of them will be controlling the globalized world. Putin thinks it should be him. WEF thinks it should be them. But they all suck. Because globalism sucks no matter who’s in charge. We (you, me and Ukrainians) want a strong nation-state. We want globalists to leave us alone.

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  9. “Ukraine will win.”

    By win do you mean that the Russian forces will be driven back, the Crimea will be retaken, separatist in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic will all be eliminated? The Ukraine will again have control over the nuclear weapons that it once had, will become part of NATO and thereby contain an aggressive Russia?

    I doubt that the US, EU or Russia will accept this win without a fight.

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    1. I think that NATO is completely useless. It’s a ridiculous financial scam. Ukraine doesn’t need it. Nobody needs it.

      For the world really to win, the Russian Federation as a country should not exist anymore. It should be broken up in several republics, completely demilitarized, and rebuilt both economically and intellectually. It was done with Germany after WWII. This is very realistic.

      I don’t think that the Western leadership is ready for this right now. It sucks for us all, forany more reasons than anything to do with Eastern Europe. We need a better leadership because out standard of living is collapsing, our freedoms are being taken away, and their inaction on both this and the Russian aggression are part and parcel of the same impotence and incompetence.

      As for the Crimea and DNR / LNR, no, I absolutely don’t think that Ukraine should conquer them militarily. Nobody in Ukraine wants that. They’ll come themselves and will beg to be let in

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  10. The pro-Russian pressure in Europe has nothing to do with fear of a balance of power changing. Nor is it pro-Russianism. What has happened is that Europe has understood that Russian energy is cheaper than US energy, that NATO was used as a tool to incite the Russians, and that the whole thing is yet another scam being run by the same scammers in the US and EU that ran the other scams.

    The level of delusion around this war is as striking as it is disappointing by the way.

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      1. “Ah, we are back to the NATO onanism. 🙂 I thought fantasies have an expiration date but apparently not.”

        Remember when I told you that the same pattern was happening in the Pacific. Perhaps use a search engine and utilise the term “Indo-Pacific NATO”, followed by clicking the news tab.

        After you read a bit, perhaps give some thought as to why the same pattern is happening around China in the Pacific when there is no evil Putin or evil Russians in the Pacific who historically hate Ukrainians or whatever it is.

        Maybe the reason that it is being done to the Chinese is the same reason that it was done to the Russians.

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        1. Oh, those poor Russians. Things have been done to them and now they gang rape toddlers to death. Poor, poor innocent little bunnies. Let me go weep for them and their sad, sad mistreatment.

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          1. Ukraine was used by the US to fight a proxy war against Russia, which is costing Ukraine more than a thousand of her best soldiers per day. Those soldiers cannot be replaced and will soon run out, which means that Ukraine, as a country, is practically destroyed.

            Contested areas in the West of Ukraine are being eyed off by nations such as Poland, while lands in the East are definitely lost. Loss of access to both the Azov and Black seas mean that Russia decides whether or not Ukraine gets to use sea freight.

            Remember these facts when you see news in the coming times relating to the Straits of Malacca, and other areas just to the North of Indonesia.

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              1. “No, that’s not what happened at all. I’m sorry you have decided not to get informed. When you do, I’m here to help.”

                A month or two ago, you posted a thread about NATO, for people who had something to say about NATO to comment in. When I commented in ways you did not like, you blocked or deleted my comments, or whatever it was that you did.

                If you did not like my comments, then you could have just said that they were upsetting you. I would have stopped writing.

                In my opinion, you are being irrational by raising a subject that provokes public comments of a kind that upset you enough that you act poorly towards those who make them in good faith.

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            1. “Contested areas in the West of Ukraine are being eyed off by nations such as Poland, while lands in the East are definitely lost. Loss of access to both the Azov and Black seas mean that Russia decides whether or not Ukraine gets to use sea freight.”

              There are no contested areas in the West of Ukraine. Saying otherwise is just factually incorrect.
              Ukraine has firm control of Odessa, so still has Black Sea access.

              Liked by 1 person

              1. “There are no contested areas in the West of Ukraine. Saying otherwise is just factually incorrect.”

                Poland and Ukraine granted their citizens reciprocal rights. That kind of thing happens when land is ceded or annexed. Both Romania and Poland have historical claims to territories presently marked on the map as being Western Ukraine. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what is happening in relation to who wants what land.

                “Ukraine has firm control of Odessa, so still has Black Sea access.”

                Russia controls and has blockaded the Black Sea. People in Odessa can, for the moment, step into the water and splash around, but not much more than that.

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              2. “Poland and Ukraine granted their citizens reciprocal rights. That kind of thing happens when land is ceded or annexed.”

                This is a very big stretch. Next you’re going to tell me Poland is about to invade Ukraine to take its territory?
                I think only Russia remains with that kind of WWII thinking.

                “Russia controls and has blockaded the Black Sea. People in Odessa can, for the moment, step into the water and splash around, but not much more than that.”

                Russia doesn’t control the Black Sea. It still needs to beg Turkey for access to the Mediterranean and it’s contested by NATO countries there. Sure, they are currently blocking Ukraine’s access, but that can change.

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              3. Both Romania and especially Poland are donating immense amounts of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. As a percentage of their respective GDPs, Poland is the first and Romania is in the top 5. It would be much easier for them to carve up Ukraine if they didn’t do this, or only sent token amounts. I don’t know very much about the citizenship issue, but I imagine it mostly has to do with expediting the administrative issues that helping the refugees for which Poland is the first port of call causes.

                It’s my understanding that the weapon systems that Ukraine receives is what is in current use in the respective military forces of the supporting countries. Even if it they were not, they’re demonstrably combat effective against Russia’s top-shelf armaments that they’d originally rolled in with, a lot of which have already been destroyed. There are reports of Russia beginning to break into their soviet-era stores for trucks, tanks, weapons and replacement parts, all of which are ill-maintained and subpar compared to what the west can field.

                Russia is trying to maintain a massive modern nuclear arsenal, capability for long-range intervention and high-tech systems that are on par with western ones, but the issue is that their economic cock just isn’t big enough to fill out the military codpiece they keep trying to strut. Their GDP is comparable to South Korea and, which is nothing to scoff at, but certainly isn’t large enough to support swinging their cock around on the world stage as energetically as they do – especially when near every other topdog country is also against them.

                And so something must give – in this case it’s their conventional military forces, boots and threads, which are consistently undersupplied, undertrained, undersupported with communications and logistics – and/therefore at very low morale. It’s my understanding that Operation Z wasn’t really budgeted for, and so we are seeing soldiers that aren’t getting paid, vehicles that have parts that exist only in theory, and a military drive based primarily on whether the soldiers want to be fucked through by ukrainian shells or fucked over by the legal system back home.

                The west is enormously, stupidly, ridiculously wealthy. They can outspend Russia on this war without even ever really needing to wake up, and we know for a fact they have at least one eye open. They could do this even if Russia’s economy wasn’t forced into a death spiral, which it has. And even if they didn’t want to spend on this war – which at the very worst they are merely ambivalent about – they’re going to continue to do it because western institutions are now full of eastern european nations, all of which see Russia as a threat, and all of which will push for support at every opportunity they get – and the western nations will give in because they can’t give up face even if they wanted to.

                Now, I don’t think russians are inherently evil – their force in Ukraine is comprised of people for whom it’s a job, and who will (or already have) be fucking off as soon as they can find a way to now that they know what the job involves and just how much they’re getting for it, and of people who just really, really get off on killing and mutilating Ukrainians. A better government would make sure none of these fucks were ever able to touch a gun, but Russia’s is a government that makes sure they do.

                As fitting it would be to return Muscovy to its original borders, neither is it really possible to enforce regime change or partition on a nuclear armed nation, and even if that small wrinkle was sorted out, military control over a territory of this size is near definitely impossible. What we can do, however, is roll up as many anti-nuke systems right up their border as we can, so that any time a russian leader even smells a fart of the dream of nuclear war, they will know for a fact that they will accomplish nothing but turning their own skies to raw fire.

                We are already winning this.

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              4. @ed: “This is a very big stretch. Next you’re going to tell me Poland is about to invade Ukraine to take its territory?
                I think only Russia remains with that kind of WWII thinking.”

                Why would Poland invade when it already has control. Ukraine is at war. The Ukrainian government cannot function. The Polish government can function. So the administration of those Western Ukrainian territories and all of the wealth arising from them goes through Poland, with all the big decisions being made in Poland, and that’s it.

                Ukrainian politicians from those areas can arrange to fix pot holes, and maybe renovate a school building, then have a nice party or awards show etc but the money and serious decisions go through Poland which is the de facto owner of those territories.

                The way this all works is that once the money starts to flow through the politicians and businesspeople in the relevant area, no one wants to change a thing. Anyone in Western Ukraine who raises the idea of administrative control going back to Ukraine, or reciprocal rights being changed, or anything that interferes with the money is removed from the equation.

                Possession of the Territory is therefore lost to Ukraine, and that’s it.

                “Russia doesn’t control the Black Sea. It still needs to beg Turkey for access to the Mediterranean and it’s contested by NATO countries there. Sure, they are currently blocking Ukraine’s access, but that can change.”

                In your previous statement you said that Ukraine has access to the Black Sea. I said that it does not, because Russia controlled the Black Sea and was blockading it. The sense of my words was that Russia controlled whether or not Ukraine had access to the Black Sea.

                Turkey has ships in the Black Sea and can decide who goes through Turkish waters, but Turkey cannot compel Russia to lift its blockade or let Ukrainian vessels (or any other vessels) through. So, my point about Russia controlling Ukrainian access to the Black Sea stands.

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              5. @ DWeird:

                “Both Romania and especially Poland are donating immense amounts of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. As a percentage of their respective GDPs, Poland is the first and Romania is in the top 5. It would be much easier for them to carve up Ukraine if they didn’t do this, or only sent token amounts. I don’t know very much about the citizenship issue, but I imagine it mostly has to do with expediting the administrative issues that helping the refugees for which Poland is the first port of call causes.”

                The carve up is happening under NATO expansion. The way it works is that Romania and Poland hand over obsolete weapons to Ukraine where they are destroyed, followed by new weapon being purchased and new taxes applied on the public. Who wins – the ones in charge, plus their predator business friends, plus anyone connected to NATO especially in regards to money.

                Meanwhile Western Ukrainian territory and money has to be transferred to EU gangsters somehow, which is accomplished by Poland recognising the rights of Ukrainians to run in Polish elections, be Polish police officers etc so that administration of those territories can happen in Poland.

                As you said, administration is definitely expedited, with the undeclared purpose being that the money is expedited from Western Ukraine into Poland.

                “It’s my understanding that the weapon systems that Ukraine receives is what is in current use in the respective military forces of the supporting countries. Even if it they were not, they’re demonstrably combat effective against Russia’s top-shelf armaments that they’d originally rolled in with, a lot of which have already been destroyed. There are reports of Russia beginning to break into their soviet-era stores for trucks, tanks, weapons and replacement parts, all of which are ill-maintained and subpar compared to what the west can field.”

                Yes the weapons being given to Ukraine are decades old and partially effective. Overall though Ukraine is being obliterated because they are losing more than 1000 troops per day, including the most elite troops that Ukraine has/had.

                Meanwhile the troops that Russia has sent are not the best of the best by any stretch. In fact, deals have been done so that Chechen troops go in rather than Russians and simply slaughter everyone.

                What ends up happening is that Russia still has elite troops and Ukraine doesn’t. They run out. There is no factory that churns out elite troops that Ukraine can switch on as if it were making sausages.

                “Russia is trying to maintain a massive modern nuclear arsenal, capability for long-range intervention and high-tech systems that are on par with western ones, but the issue is that their economic cock just isn’t big enough to fill out the military codpiece they keep trying to strut. Their GDP is comparable to South Korea and, which is nothing to scoff at, but certainly isn’t large enough to support swinging their cock around on the world stage as energetically as they do – especially when near every other topdog country is also against them.”

                Yes I know. That is why I mentioned the paper/study done by the Rand group which stated as much and that said that the best way to deal with Russia was to goad them then bleed them through Ukraine, then Moldova and Transnistria.

                “And so something must give – in this case it’s their conventional military forces, boots and threads, which are consistently undersupplied, undertrained, undersupported with communications and logistics – and/therefore at very low morale. It’s my understanding that Operation Z wasn’t really budgeted for, and so we are seeing soldiers that aren’t getting paid, vehicles that have parts that exist only in theory, and a military drive based primarily on whether the soldiers want to be fucked through by ukrainian shells or fucked over by the legal system back home.”

                According to the Rand paper what happens as a best case scenario is that Russia is depleted while NATO expands and rearms, with everyone in the EU connected to it getting rich from new bond sales, oil sales etc followed by the collective West gaining the upper hand over the wealth of Russia, while as a worst case scenario a nuclear war breaks out, Finland gets taken over, Russia and China form a symbiotic relationship etc.

                “The west is enormously, stupidly, ridiculously wealthy. They can outspend Russia on this war without even ever really needing to wake up, and we know for a fact they have at least one eye open. They could do this even if Russia’s economy wasn’t forced into a death spiral, which it has. And even if they didn’t want to spend on this war – which at the very worst they are merely ambivalent about – they’re going to continue to do it because western institutions are now full of eastern european nations, all of which see Russia as a threat, and all of which will push for support at every opportunity they get – and the western nations will give in because they can’t give up face even if they wanted to.”

                Yes the West is very wealthy, but if there is a nuclear war then everyone will be much less wealthy while authoritarianism will spread throughout Europe. Which is probably what a lot of maniacs want tbh. In a way this is as much a war against the public as it is against Russia.

                “Now, I don’t think russians are inherently evil – their force in Ukraine is comprised of people for whom it’s a job, and who will (or already have) be fucking off as soon as they can find a way to now that they know what the job involves and just how much they’re getting for it, and of people who just really, really get off on killing and mutilating Ukrainians. A better government would make sure none of these fucks were ever able to touch a gun, but Russia’s is a government that makes sure they do.”

                The collective West is the same. Adventurers and yahoos galore from dozens of nations have gone to Ukraine as mercenaries and volunteers to engage in their lust for killing, rape etc. Ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians are both victims, from both sides, as usual. People aren’t really very different anywhere, whether Russian or Ukrainian or Chinese.

                “As fitting it would be to return Muscovy to its original borders, neither is it really possible to enforce regime change or partition on a nuclear armed nation, and even if that small wrinkle was sorted out, military control over a territory of this size is near definitely impossible. What we can do, however, is roll up as many anti-nuke systems right up their border as we can, so that any time a russian leader even smells a fart of the dream of nuclear war, they will know for a fact that they will accomplish nothing but turning their own skies to raw fire.”

                It would have been better to just leave NATO out of Ukraine and wait the Russians out for another generation imo.

                “We are already winning this.”

                Imo no one is winning this. Even the ones making money for now have to live in a much less stable, even parlous, world. Anyone who calls that winning has lost perspective imo.

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              6. George, you said you believe I banned you and deleted your comments. If you yourself believe you are not wanted, why do you keep bringing yourself to a place where you are rejected? Do you have no self-respect at all? Everything you say here is extraordinarily, insanely stupid. I believe that you are a stupid person. Will this be enough for you to find some remaining shreds of dignity and go away?

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        2. “Indo-Pacific NATO”

          I see a bunch of headlines about China (that is Xi because l’etat c’est lui ) complaining about the prospects of something.

          Give me the elevator pitch and then I can look for evidence that supports what you’re saying (or not).

          Who gets what in your view? What does the US or NATO get by tricking Russia into invading (or goading them into invading or whatever)?

          nb. Russia floated the idea of carving up Ukraine like a turkey years ago to Poland, an idea that has no support whatsoever from the public (Hungary may be interested in a chunk where there are Hungarians which is why Orban is supporting Putin).

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          1. “Who gets what in your view? What does the US or NATO get by tricking Russia into invading (or goading them into invading or whatever)?”

            The US has openly stated that it will maintain hegemony by waging war against regional powers through proxy. Since it has very good weapons and a large military complex, it can wage war against practically any opponent by shipping weapons in to be used by local forces.

            There is nothing controversial about that, with several speakers lecturing to US military and to groups of foreigners eg Australians about it and publishing those talks on platforms like YouTube.

            Various think tank studies/papers were produced regarding both Russia and China finding that both were demographically vulnerable for the next decade. Should both of those nations be expended and bled militarily for about a decade, they would be unable to challenge the US for the foreseeable future.

            The Rand group, for example, produced a paper stating that the best way to deal with Russia would be to encroach upon it using NATO which could position certain types of nuclear capable weapons in the territory of Ukraine etc which would make Russia completely unable to defend itself against attack, which the Russians published was an existential threat to them that would provoke a response.

            The Rand paper laid out a plan to first goad Russia into war with Ukraine followed by war in Moldova and then Transnistria, with the object being to burden Russia with the economic and human cost of war, while making it possible to expand NATO to counter the newly created Russian threat.

            After Russia was sufficiently weakened through an expanding war, according to the paper, the next target would be China.

            The Chinese Communist Party retains power by uplifting the lives and economic prospects of the population. If it could not do that, the CCP would eventually be overthrown.

            The Chinese economic began to fail half a decade ago, which forced the ruling party to avoid overthrow and retain power through naked hypernationalism, which is why it provokes its neighbours with some stupid border dispute or other or makes an accusation via so-called “wolf warrior diplomacy”, starts a fight, and then convinces the Chinese public that the neighbour wants to destroy China.

            In preparation for war with China the US has finally recognised Taiwan, signed trade agreements with Taiwan, sold billions in weapons to Taiwan etc.

            About 3 years ago the US prompted the Filipino president to engage in hostilities against China, which he refused and then spoke about in public. He is presently being removed from office so that he can be replaced with someone who will get with the program.

            The US also set up the so-called QUAD alliance between India, Australia, Japan etc while supplying nuclear powered submarines to Australia, which are openly spoken about in Australia as being intended for use against a Chinese threat, or to deny merchant ships access to the Straits of Malacca.

            That Indo-Pacific group of anti-China nations is what they are calling “Pacific NATO”, which Xi is upset about for obvious reasons, particularly since he is attempting to take over China forever this November and cannot afford any threat, real or imagined, to be perceived by the Chinese public.

            In the meantime NATO in Europe has a lot of old weaponry, much of which is in disrepair after too long in storage, with no real excuse to rearm before the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

            So now, EU nations are disposing of their old NATO weapons by giving them to Ukrainian soldiers to fight with, so that EU bonds can be sold (which was promised would never happen), so that money can be raised to buy new weapons with.

            The benefit for the US in this regard is the sale of weapons, the same of which can be said for France, Italy, Germany etc while the EU has a new slush fund of money to play with and steal.

            Russia being identified as an enemy also allowed for US energy to be sold to replace Russian energy, while EU kleptocrats are more than happy to go along with sanctions so that they can play all sorts of stupid games privately buying Russian oil/gas cheaply, routing it through other countries, rebranding it as being “not Russian oil/gas” then delivering it to the same countries as usual except that the price is much higher and the profits stay in their hands instead of only Gazprom’s.

            In Hungary Orban figured out that landlocked states like his would be unable to buy rebadged Russian oil/gas delivered by sea, meaning that he could either buy oil/gas cheaply from Russia through pipelines in rubles or very expensively through pipelines through profit-taking EU states from the other direction, which would result in his popularity plummeting and his being replaced.

            So, Orban has gone against the kleptocrats in the EU and agreed to buy oil/gas from Russia in rubles, which means that EU kleptocrats don’t get to sell him the same energy at massive personal profit, while also throwing a spanner in the works in regards to the whole plan against Russia.

            As a benefit, the Hungarian public continues to buy cheap energy and so continues to approve of Orban, so he can stay in charge.

            Regarding Ukraine once again, it is necessary for food to be controlled and kept away from certain nations via artificial shortages which are used to incense the public and lead to public pressure if not overthrow, and so “aid” has been earmarked for Ukraine, the majority of which doesn’t go to Ukraine but rather to Ukrainian refugees in other states.

            Someone still has to pay for that aid though, and so it looks like control of Ukrainian grain will go to foreigners so that they can, as mentioned previously, make sure that the grain doesn’t go to “bad” countries and is of course sold at a healthy private profit.

            This is all still developing, but it seems like Ukraine will have a new version of the Holodomor, except that instead of Ukrainians dying of starvation, they die while using old NATO weapons, and instead of Soviets in the East eating bread made from Ukrainian grain, it will be capitalists in the West selling that grain to various nations like Egypt etc at a profit so that they can eat bread instead.

            There really aren’t words to describe how bad all of this is. But there is your answer anyway.

            Like

  11. “News: The Biden admin is preparing to send Ukraine advanced, long-range rocket systems—known as MLRS and HIMARS—that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say. Approval could be announced as soon as next week.”

    If this does come to be, then all this talk about the US not providing enough support should stop. Ukraine is getting boatloads of weapons, material, cash, intelligence, etc. and it’s increasingly getting even more sophisticated weapons systems that the US doesn’t just export to any country.

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    1. The problem is that they’ve been “preparing” to send these MLRS for almost two months. They keep announcing shipments that never happen. It sounds like a bad joke that on May 26, they are telling us they are almost prepared to ship the MLRS we’ve been hearing about this whole time.

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      1. Same thing with the M777 artillery pieces, in the end the US delivered.

        These weapons systems require significant training, and cannot just be next day shipped to the front lines. With expensive MLRS systems they would become immediate targets for the Russian airforce, so you need to also consider anti-aircraft systems, electronic warfare mechanism, and like a thousand other things. Sure, things could be going faster and political will could be better, but that doesn’t detract from the points I’ve made.

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        1. I really hope you are right and I’m freaking out unnecessarily. It does make sense, what you are saying.

          OK, I feel better now. Thank you, you are a mensch.

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  12. “I think that NATO is completely useless. It’s a ridiculous financial scam. Ukraine doesn’t need it. Nobody needs it.”

    Ah, Clarissa, you are so correct about so many current international events — and so misguided on NATO, which is by far the most successful military alliance in modern history.

    The existence of NATO, with its inherent U.S. nuclear spear at its trigger point, has kept Western Europe out of war during all of the long years since 1949. The USSR/Russia didn’t hesitate to use its overwhelming force against Hungary and Czechoslovakia, and now Ukraine — but Putin will never attack Poland, or Hungary, or any other country under NATO protection, because that would mean war with the United States.

    And Putin wouldn’t have dared to make war on Ukraine, if that country had been a member of NATO prior to his aggression.

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      1. I think Angela Merkel will go down as one of the most short sighted leaders of modern times. She failed to correctly read the most important situations.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. How do we know that, though? It’s like the COVID vaccine. “Your symptoms would have been more severe without it.” How can anybody know that?

      I strongly suspect that when Russia invades a NATO country, nobody will do anything. A very strong concern will be expressed, and that will be it.

      Let’s wait and see. Russia will totally be invading a NATO country in a few years. As long as Russia exists, there won’t be peace for anybody. This is what my father said his whole life. I thought he was exaggerating but now it’s clear he was right.

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      1. Just the cost benefit analysis becomes very difficult for Russia. On the high chance that NATO does respond, Russia is screwed.

        If it pisses of the Russians then it must be good.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. “Let’s wait and see. Russia will totally be invading a NATO country in a few years.”

        Finland will be taken over by Russia and turned into a buffer state. Estonia, Latvia etc are too small and will sit there quivering.

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        1. Finland would make invading Ukraine for Russia look like a cakewalk. Russia has no chance to invade them.

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      3. I don’t know if they’ll be able to try invading a NATO country even if they want to, as their conventional forces will likely be too devastated by then and they’ll likely lack the funds to rebuild. But I believe NATO will stop them if they try anything.

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    2. @ Dreidel: “The existence of NATO, with its inherent U.S. nuclear spear at its trigger point, has kept Western Europe out of war during all of the long years since 1949.”

      NATO bombed Yugoslavia in the 1990s and has given everyone a new war in Ukraine. If NATO were truly a force for peace then it would have admitted Russia as a member when Russia asked to be one.

      Instead Russia was kept out of the alliance which meant that NATO would remain under purely Western control so that now we have 2 sides that are fighting each other like complete idiots.

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      1. Russia caused the war in Ukraine, not NATO. NATO’s “expansion” was because the former Soviet and Warsaw Pact nations knew that if not a member of NATO, they would face constant bullying and threats from Russia and eventual aggression. And why would you admit Russia as a member of NATO? Russia as a member of NATO would simply neuter the organization, like the United Nations.

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  13. \ Why is he still in politics? He has nothing to contribute? Does he have to try to stay out of jail or something?

    I do not know, his trial has been going on for years.

    I think he does not see himself outside of politics. Scratch that, he doesn’t see himself outside the chair of the Prime Minister.

    // It sounds like Israel is confronting systemic political failure. The dinosaur turds need to vacate the public space and let newer fresher people take over.

    The situation may be worse since it is not (only?) because of old politicians. On the contrary, Netanyahu’s right wing governments with Haredi parties had been stable for years, till they stopped being so for some reason I missed. When I voted for N, I voted for stability and experience.

    The current new faces of Bennett’s government of very right wing (Righter than N’s Liqud), very left wing and Arabs cannot be stable for one day without a miracle, and miracles tend to be in short supply.

    Here is a summary of the past 1-2 weeks. I am too tired to follow it all myself.

    // In the wake of the political crisis set off by Idit Silman’s defection (el: she is a member of Bennett’s own right wing party ‘Yamina,’ meaning ‘to the right’) to the opposition a few weeks ago and deepened by Ra’am’s suspension (el: Arabs) of its participation in the coalition during the recent Knesset recess over Israeli police actions on the Temple Mount, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid had appeared by the middle of last week to have bailed the water out of a leaking ship. Since then, a veritable typhoon has hit the Bennett-Lapid government, and it is coming from all fronts. On Thursday, Meretz (el: a minor ultra left-wing party with six seats only out of 120 ) MK Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi (el: an Arab) announced her resignation from the coalition—leaving it with a Knesset minority of 59 seats—only to retract on Sunday. On Monday this week, Bennett’s closest aide and chief of staff, Tal Gan-Zvi, announced that he would be stepping down. On Wednesday, Blue and White MK and Knesset Economic Committee chair Michael Biton said that he would no longer vote for any coalition bills or even schedule committee meetings until public transportation and agriculture pricing reforms with which he disagrees are halted. And amidst all of this were rumors that if Defense Minister Benny Gantz orders the evacuation of the illegal Homesh outpost—which the Supreme Court has demanded a response on from Gantz next week—Yamina MK Nir Orbach and potentially other Yamina figures will quit the coalition.

    https://ottomansandzionists.com/2022/05/26/the-coalition-politics-of-the-ideological-versus-the-material/

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    1. “summary of the past 1-2 weeks”

      Sounds like a political system that no longer functions… This doesn’t happen out of nowhere and is usually triggered by social dysfunction (above and beyond the usual chaos of daily life).

      What has broken down in Israeli society? Do different factions of society hate each other more than they fear Israel… disappearing?

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      1. // This doesn’t happen out of nowhere and is usually triggered by social dysfunction (above and beyond the usual chaos of daily life).

        I think Israeli society is more fractured than American one, f.e.

        To begin with, Arab citizens of Israel in 2019 represented 20.95 percent of the country’s population.

        Only “around 8.4% of Israeli Arabs live in officially mixed Jewish-Arab cities,” yet it was sufficient to:

        “In May 2021, violent riots erupted in and around Arab towns and mixed cities throughout Israel.
        Triggered by confrontations in East Jerusalem and the related flare‐up between Israel and the Hamas
        in Gaza, the events escalated into two weeks of clashes involving Jewish and Arab citizens, police, and
        military forces at a scale reminiscent of the Events of October 2000. Mixed cities were at the heart of
        the most severe inter‐communal violence, drawing widespread attention and concern about the
        causes and implications for Jewish‐Arab relations in the country as a whole.”

        The entire paper is here:

        Click to access resource-2070.pdf

        Last year I worked in a mixed city and arriving to work was ‘fun.’ Border forces from IDF protected schools, a Jew and an Arab were killed in that one small city / town, Jewish citizens, including school children, were not preparing for bagrut exams because of being in a civilian guard…

        An article from 8 May 2022 tells of “Prime Minister Naftali Bennett vowed to establish a civilian national guard … The announcement came in the wake of a terror attack in which three people were killed and several were wounded in the ultra-Orthodox city of Elad on Thursday.”

        Another issue is the relationship between religion and state (which interests me more than most Israelis, alas) and Haredi Jews’ status.

        “The rate of employment among ultra-Orthodox Jewish women reached an all-time record in the final quarter of 2021, catching up with the rate among non-Orthodox Israeli women at 83%, according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics. … While women’s employment rose from 56% in 2010 to 83% in a decade, the rate of employment among ultra-Orthodox men rose from 40% in 2010 to 53% in 2019 but has since declined.”

        Haredi men do not have to serve in IDF, while a non Haredi woman who doesn’t serve hurts her good name for life.

        A woman cannot have an abortion w/o standing in front of a committee with a rabbi in it. If one is a married woman younger than 40, forget about getting this permission. There are ‘illegal’ clinics, yet I would be afraid to trust them.

        Marriage and divorce laws from middle ages make a woman ‘chained’ if her husband refuses to give her a divorce. Any child she has from another man is ‘mamzer’, unable to get married in Israel except to another ‘mamzer’ for 10 generations.

        Than there is left vs. right wing thing despite the left losing all its power and hardly existing.
        In Israel, Left vs. Right wing is re readiness for two state solution despite even Left agreeing the solution won’t come soon.

        And, of course, there is a competition among right wing who is righter. For instance, 14 April 2022

        “Six Jews in their 20s were arrested Thursday morning after police suspected they were planning to sacrifice a goat at the Temple Mount in Jerusalem’s Old City ahead of Passover.

        The suspects, residents of Jerusalem and Jewish settlements in the West Bank, were detained and taken in for questioning after police found a goat in one of the suspects’ homes.

        The “Returning to the Mount” extremist group, which advocates the construction of a third Jewish temple on the site that once housed the two biblical temples, have circulated a flyer offering a cash prize to anyone who managed to offer a living sacrifice on the Temple Mount, and to anyone arrested trying to do so.

        The provocative plans announced by Jewish activists were met with threats from Hamas on Wednesday, which said it would not allow Jews to offer sacrifices at the site “at any cost,” while Gazan terror factions convened to discuss a unified response to the alleged “aggressions.””

        Like

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