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On Tariffs

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I don’t know if Trump’s tariffs will be good or bad. It’s impossible to be a specialist in everything, and on this topic I confess that I have zero knowledge.

Is it possible that the tariffs will have disastrous consequences? For all I know (which is nothing whatsoever), yes, absolutely.

Is it possible that they will have great consequences? Just as possible.

I don’t know where to find a good, reasonable explanation of tariffs other than acquiring an additional degree in Economics. I have already spent more time than I ever wanted to learn the basics of virology, and there’s a limit to how much I can do to compensate for the information vacuum we live in.

There’s a lot of wailing about tariffs in the media but it’s the same media that told us there was an epidemic of police killing unarmed black men and all the rest of it. So that’s worth bupkes.

23 responses to “On Tariffs”

  1. ed Avatar
    ed

    I’m also not sure about tariffs and don’t have an economics degree. However, I don’t have to have an economics degree to know that placing tariffs on your closest neighbors is a bad idea. The US is an incredibly lucky country to have Mexico and Canada as neighbors, and not something like China or Russia. Why throw that away?

    My hope, and it looks like it’s looking that way, is that Trump will backtrack and use it as a negotiating tactic. But even this just leaves a very sour taste, we shouldn’t treat our friends and neighbors like that. I don’t like this zero sum game; I want Canada and Mexico to be successful because their success is also ours.

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    1. cliff arroyo Avatar
      cliff arroyo

      “lucky country to have Mexico and Canada as neighbors”

      A _lot_ of traditional republicans/conservatives don’t see it that way. I can’t say anything about street level opinions in the US now (obviously) but what I remember was different kinds of contempt. For Canada it was mostly about the healthcare system (and not so much real problems and deficiencies there just the principle infuriated people). There was also extra derision for French speakers (the most disliked language community in the hemisphere… no one likes them).

      For Mexico it was linguistic and economic and cultural and racial. Mexicans were generally considered inferior and Mexican poverty was a popular subject for jokes.

      So, yeah, in theory Mexico and Canada are pretty decent neighbors but that doesn’t necessarily get reflected in popular opinion.

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      1. methylethyl Avatar
        methylethyl

        At street level, there isn’t any real animus. Not here, anyway. Might be different in the border states.

        Most of the illegals are not from Mexico anymore. I think most people I’ve talked to who have any objection at all to the illegals don’t really blame Mexico for it– they blame the US govt. People who’ve been to Mexico mostly remember it as a fun cheap vacation.

        Canada: it’s like America, but more polite and kind of wimpy? Nobody hates Canada. They are weird, though.

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        1. cliff arroyo Avatar
          cliff arroyo

          “At street level, there isn’t any real animus”

          Not European style, but… it can be there. I’m from a place where a lot of Canadians wintered and they were even less popular than American snowbirds. The few I knew who worked with/for them _really_ didn’t like them….

          Mexicans were mostly the butt of jokes:

          What are the first words a Mexican baby hears?: Attention K-Mart Shoppers!

          What do you call 12 Mexicans in a car?: A family outing.

          What do you call 1 Mexican in a car?: Grand Theft Auto.

          That type of thing. Didn’t necessarily translate into personal hostility. A cousin (rancher) hired some and was very positively impressed and said they made him feel lazy (he usually worked at least12 hours a day at least 6 days a week).

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          1. methylethyl Avatar
            methylethyl

            OK, we did have a whole repertoire of tasteless snowbird stories. Like, when I was a kid, people we knew who worked in retail were disgusted by Canadians, because they didn’t tip, and they would do stuff like come down, rent a place for a month or more, buy dishes and bicycles and things, keep the receipts, and then return those things obviously used for a refund at the end of their stay.

            BUT, that’s not really a thing anymore. The tourist profile for our area changed, and we have since moved on to hating spring breakers, ghetto druggies from Montgomery, and AirBnB.

            Liked by 1 person

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            1. cliff arroyo Avatar
              cliff arroyo

              “isgusted by Canadians, because they”

              A close friend worked for a bit in an ABC and said Canadians spent a really long time trying to figure out how to get the most bang for the buck when it came to buying alcohol to take back (something about price differences and customs restrictions).

              “we have since moved on to hating”

              As long as you’re hating someone. That’s what really matters.

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              1. methylethyl Avatar
                methylethyl

                It is the nature of tourist towns 😉

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            2. Clarissa Avatar
              Clarissa

              I’m going back to Fort Myers Beach in summer because there’s no place on Earth than can beat its attractions for me. People who know me perceive my fixation on it as an eccentricity.

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        2. oldcowboy3 Avatar
          oldcowboy3

          methylethyl

          LOL, are you calling me wimpy and weird ;-D

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          1. methylethyl Avatar
            methylethyl

            No, but those stereotypes (much like foreign stereotypes about Americans) are heavily influenced by: a) the particular segment of Canadians we actually come into contact with: elderly tourists, and b) media portrayals.

            I do not think either of those is an accurate representation of the majority of actual Canadians 😉

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            1. methylethyl Avatar
              methylethyl

              …and by “media portrayals” we mean *The Red Green Show*.

              We don’t actually get a lot of exposure to Canadian media 😉

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              1. oldcowboy3 Avatar
                oldcowboy3

                methylethyl

                All the major media are bought and paid for by the Liberal Party. Worse, the Liberals are in power because many women find Turdo the Second’s hair appealing, not that I am questioning the wisdom of universal suffrage ;-D

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              2. Clarissa Avatar
                Clarissa

                I also want to add that older women, relatives and friends should stop telling graphic horror stories about the birthing process around little girls. No other physiological process is inflicted narratively on kids who aren’t equipped to understand it.

                And it’s not only the birthing stories but also “right after I gave birth, the husband started to treat me like absolute garbage.” I understand the need to share but it should be done among adults.

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  2. methylethyl Avatar
    methylethyl

    My sibling’s company is currently looking at a +$100K for steel they already ordered, due to new tariffs. Would cost them about the same to back out of the contract. Could potentially sink the company.

    Might’ve been helpful to allow companies a grace period on it, for orders already placed.

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    1. methylethyl Avatar
      methylethyl

      …that said, they were also very near locking the gates and declaring bankruptcy during the covid fiasco: as a company that accepts some government contracts, they were being leaned on heavily to mandate the experimental shots on employees. 1) they wouldn’t have done that, and 2) even if they *had* tried to enforce it, there was simply no way that they could’ve gotten the required level of compliance out of a large workforce skewed heavily toward skilled metalworkers and engineers (you can do that to office fauna. Not actual men and butch lesbian welders). 60% of their workforce would have quit rather than comply: they were all very in demand at other outfits all up and down the region and had a choice. Either way: if the mandates hadn’t gone unenforced, the whole outfit would have been out of business.

      So… poorly thought out government policies come and go. They’re like natural disasters except your insurance doesn’t cover them. Sometimes you pull through. Sometimes you declare bankruptcy and start over again at a lower tier.

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    2. Avatar
      Anonymous

      “Might’ve been helpful to allow companies a grace period on it, for orders already placed.”

      That’s fair, and in a decent world I think it would be the case, but I suspect the reason it didn’t happen was this was being rushed out before the leftists could stop it. After all better a rushed plan that partially succeeds, rather than one that is thought out, but is blocked before it can effect anything.

      • – W

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    3. cliff arroyo Avatar
      cliff arroyo

      “Might’ve been helpful to allow companies a grace period on it, for orders already placed”

      If I didn’t know better I’d think that this is one more tactic to destroy smaller businesses (a bi-partisan policy which only differs between Ds and Rss in details not main principles).

      Anything at all in policy terms that supports small businesses or are they going the way of public schools?

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      1. methylethyl Avatar
        methylethyl

        Current admin did rescind an onerous paperwork filing thing for small businesses? Beneficial Ownership Information Somethingorother, instated by Bideninc.

        A time-consuming nuisance that needed to be filed each year, and incurred huge fines if late.

        Not the blockbuster moves one wants to see, though, such as removing barriers to entry and modifying regulations meant to curb the abuses of huge corporations… but in effect written for huge corporations in order to increase operating costs for smaller competitors.

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      2. Avatar
        Anonymous

        You might be right. Surprising I know coming from me of all people. But the thing is at some point you have to take a chance on someone and hope they are willing to do what they said instead of just lie about it.

        I am choosing to hope President Trump is willing to carry out what he said he will do. I am fully aware most of congress are nothing but looters and opportunists who are really all in one party together. But at some point we have to go up to bat, and in my lifetime, he has had the most potential to do the most good. Which is part of why I support him.

        But all that being said. I and millions of others could be wrong. I realize this, but the alternative to to keep allowing the looting and destruction to go on unimpeded. So realistically its a wait and see. We have taken a shot and attempted to repair the sinking boat, now we have to sit and wait to see how effective or not it will be.

        • – W

        Post Note. I realize very few people actually trust the Bible to be the Word of God, but I would like to point out a few things from the Book of Revelation. Before the Mark of the Beast, and likely before the Anti-Christ takes over. Wages will have been inflated to the point where it will cost a full days wage to buy a loaf of bread. When the Mark of the Beast occurs, the mark goes (In) the right hand or (In) the head. This imply chips and implants. Both of which have been being pushed heavily over the last few years. It also says (All) not some or most, but (All) will be required to take the mark. Which to me implies that at some point the entire global economy will be merged together, and very likely cash phased out. If cash is worthless and you have to use electronic banking, something else being massively pushed worldwide, then a government can limit what you can buy and sell using it. Maybe bartering will still be around, but I suspect that all currencies and banking, payroll, etc will be electronic and thus out of your control at that point.

        So I’m calling for anyone reading who is still unsaved. Who has still to come to salvation. The world is heading towards bad times. There is a lifeboat. Jesus Christ, offers salvation to all who would believe and have faith. There are no works required, no hail Marys, no listing out every sin from birth to this very moment. No salvation is very simple. Have faith and believe. Believe in what he did for us. We are all of us damned to hell. Not because God hates us, but because hell is eternity away from God. God is righteousness personified. He cannot allow a single sin into Heaven or he would not be. Even a single sin, the tiniest lie is enough to condemn us.

        As Paul states, in Rom 3:23 “For all have sinned and come short of the glory of God.” But God is good and God loves us despite ourselves. To the point where Jesus did the impossible. He was born and lived a perfect sinless life. He went to Calvary to die a bloody horrible death in our place. A Sacrifice, a blood payment. A Perfect Lamb of God sacrificed to save any who would accept the gift of salvation. He shed his blood for any willing to accept and believe. To believe his payment, was enough. To believe that his blood covers our sins. To believe that God who loves us so much that he would send his only son to die for us would not abandon us. We are saved through his blood, through his sacrifice, through his payment of our sins. You just have to believe.

        1st Corinthians 15:1-4 says the following. “Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also ye have received, and wherein ye stand; By which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain. For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures; And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures.” Jesus died for our sins, and rose again.

        Eternity is a very, very long time folks. And there is only one way to Heaven, and that is through Jesus.

        • – W

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  3. Avatar
    Anonymous

    It could fail. There are very few things that are foolproof as I’m sure you realize. The thing is, at the moment the US is being hit from several angles. Most of the world has tariffs on stuff exported by us. (They aren’t called tariffs though.) There was a list released yesterday of what Canada charges on our exports for example.

    Our businesses are also heavily incentivized to move jobs overseas. From the manufacturing jobs which were moved (gutted) in the 70s/80s to more modern programing jobs and call centers which were and are currently, being exported to India. To Accounting and Bookkeeping where even local medium sized firms have been shipping jobs overseas. For instance the biggest accounting firm where I live which is a medium sized one. It shipped a great deal of its bookkeeping and Payroll over to South Africa. The reason, it was cheaper to pay a foreigner to do it, than to pay an American. Which meant that company alone cost probably 3 to 5 good paying jobs. Which doesn’t sound like a lot, but multiply it by all the businesses doing that, and it adds up quickly.

    Tariffs are used for 2 purposes. 1st to encourage the companies who have or are considering shipping more jobs overseas to think a second time before deciding. 2nd it raises the price on imports which yes does raise the price of things locally, but it encourages local businesses to fill in the gaps. More specifically as these businesses sprout up to fill the demand, they will start competing with each other, thus lowering the price till its affordable once more. Alternatively what we have right now is no competition so prices keep rising and will continue to keep rising. Frankly I don’t want to wake up and find out hamburgers now cost $600. Yes that actually happened within the last 15years. (Points to Venezuela.)

    The thing is, its not like President Trump can simply order this to take place. The enemy has a vote too, and I am sure they would be more than willing and likely will be doing their best to scuttle any attempt to pull America out of the mess its in. So in theory its an extremely good idea. In practice its probably a good idea. In reality, it will face people who wish nothing more than to continue looting America and turning us all into debt slaves. These people will continue to do their best to stop any and all recovery from happening.

    So while it will probably work, rather at the very least it will force everyone else to stop taxing our exports, or it will fail due to opposition and the looting of American will continue.

    Also Ed, Mexico and Canada are our neighbors, not our friends. Canada was at one point. Its currently being run by someone I wouldn’t let watch a pet rock, much less trust with my people’s future. Mexico is under de facto control of the cartels. Neither are our friends. Oh, before someone gets the wrong idea, I do like the people of both nations, but their leadership such as it is, is a cancer upon them and us.

    • – W

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    1. Avatar
      Anonymous

      In retrospect, I’d like to edit the previous post. Canada is still our friend, but its our friend that is currently on drugs. Trudeau and his ilk. Kind of like the US was under Biden and his ilk.

      So apologies to the various Canadians here, I wasn’t trying to call you lot out, only the government current running your country.

      • – W

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      1. Avatar
        Anonymous

        No offense taken, i didn’t vote for le dauphin, i hate the bastards.

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  4. cliff arroyo Avatar
    cliff arroyo

    “It is the nature of tourist towns”

    Tell me about it.

    That’s why why I go touristing… I’m very low profile and harbor no illusions about hospitality industry smiles.

    I actually sympathize with locals on this and do what I can to put money in local small businesses. A drop in the ocean but my own drop.

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A conservative literary critic and college professor

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