My Political Prognosis: Let’s Watch Texas’ Economy

If there is a single Republican candidate right now who could challenge President Obama during the 2012 elections, it is, of course, Rick Perry. There is no other even remotely viable candidate that the GOP has managed to scare up at this point. Perry is a Governor of a big state, which means that he can start playing the “Obama is inexperienced” card all over again (mind my words, he is absolutely going to do that, as strange as it may sound to Liberal ears.)

Of course, Romney also has been a Governor of an important state. However, that state is Massachusetts, which colors Romney as somewhat of a Liberal by association. Most importantly, the guy is a Mormon, which makes him unelectable as President of the US. He is trailing Perry in the polls by 13 points right now, which is not surprising.

As for people who, for some inexplicable reason, thought Bachmann stood a chance, I hope they understand now how silly that was. She is completely crazy and a woman. A man who is totally bonkers has some marginal chance of getting the nomination and maybe even winning if his family is rich and powerful enough (wink, wink). A woman, though? Not a chance.

Which is why the following prognosis becomes crucially important:

Some signs point to Texas under-performing the national economy in coming months. The federal stimulus that Perry derides (after accepting $17.1 billion in aid) is ending, and Texas has imposed steep budget cuts that could depress its economy short term.

If Perry manages to convince the country that his state’s 8,4% unemployment is somehow indicative of a thriving economy (which is the message he’s working very hard to bring out right now), he might have a shot at the presidency. If, however, the economy of Texas suffers a blow, he’s done for in these elections, and Obama will have a clear road to the presidency.

All of this is, of course, contingent on nothing major happening in this country in terms of either a terrorist attack or another bout of the recession. Either of these could revive the Republican hopes of retaking the Oval Office in 2012.