I just read a really phenomenal article on the Ukraine crisis and, uncharacteristically, it is even written in English. The author’s name is Lidia Shevtsova. I have no idea who she is but she really knows what she is talking about.
In case you are ideologically opposed to reading anything but Clarissa’s Blog, here are some highlights. First of all, Shevtsova dispels the myth that Putin has suddenly gone insane and explains who promotes this myth and why:
I suspect that all the explanations aiming at provoking doubt as to Putin’s rationality and inadequacy have their origins in something other than dispassionate analysis. If Putin just suddenly lost his mind, this lets the political and expert community off the hook for failing to alert us to what was coming. If the West is dealing with an unexpected deviation from the norm, this means that the previous policy toward Russia was essentially correct. The theory of Putin’s “insanity” or “irrationality” would save so many analytical reputations.
Shevtsova is right. If people act in ways you didn’t expect, it makes more sense to analyze your own expectations than diagnose them to make yourself feel better. And among the many people who refuse to accept what is really happening in Russia and Ukraine, Germans take pride of place (and they are the most active in advancing the theory of Putin’s insanity):
200 German intellectuals signed a letter addressed to Vladimir Putin expressing “their understanding of the Russian reaction to the Ukrainian developments” and wishing him “strength, resilience, and luck.” The letter can only give further ammunition to the critics of the West who argue that the liberals democracies have forgotten their principles.
Shevtsova does not believe we are witnessing the revival of the Cold War. No, she says, what Putin is doing is a lot worse:
We are witnessing a much more complex phenomenon than the return of the Cold War. Vladimir Putin isn’t just attempting to dismantle the post-Cold War settlement; he is undermining the remaining elements of the post-Yalta order. This order was devised by the winners of World War II to prevent certain kinds of wars from happening again (specifically, to dismantle any potential justification for annexations or violations of another country’s borders). Putin is trying to assert his right to interpret the global rules of the game in such a way that Russia may violate them with impunity. The Cold War, by contrast, was marked by both sides’ adherence to the rules.
This entire time I believed this was the Cold War coming back but Shevtsova’s analysis makes too much sense for me to disagree. Here is the ultimate goal of Putin’s actions, she says:
The Soviet Union offered communist ideology to the world; Vladimir Putin offers the world something much more exciting than ideology: his services as interpreter of basic legal principles like legitimacy, legality, self-determination, and territorial integrity.
And here is the strategy Putin will employ to get to his goal:
Putin apparently hopes that the West will eventually be ready to grasp at his outstretched hand and embark on a new reset. The West is expected to legitimate Putin’s status quo, which will not in any case bind the Russian leader in any way. On the contrary: International acceptance of the new status quo will give Putin carte blanche to violate it again.
This whole situation has demonstrated something really crucial to the world:
We have to give Vladimir Putin credit for doing something positive. He has swept the cobwebs off the current world order. However, we still don’t know whether this has been enough to shock the liberal democracies into beginning the process of rethinking things. Maybe another shock is in order…
Brilliant article, people, the best I read on the crisis anywhere.