Ukraine and Russia: Update

There is evidence that Putin is trying to de-escalate the war with Ukraine.

Ukrainian secret services report that the Russian troops have moved away from the Ukrainian borders (albeit not very far).

The Russian ambassador has returned to Kiev.

Putin has actually referred to Yanukovich as “the former president of Ukraine.” This is a big deal because until now he’s been insisting that Yanukovich is still the only legitimate president.

Putin has met with Ukraine’s actual president Petro Poroshenko one on one. This meeting was kept secret from the citizens of Russia but it did happen.

Now, and this is important: the reason why Putin is (kind of, somewhat, a little) de-escalating is 100% regional. It is not in any way linked to Obama, Merkel, Western sanctions, or the Tooth Fairy.

Putin had obviously hoped for a Blitzkrieg in Ukraine. He committed the mistake of all intellectually challenged dictators and believed his own propaganda. He was sure that Ukrainians would be eager to become part of Russia and did not envision the possibility of a massive and passionate Ukrainian resistance to his invasion.

It has become clear now that Ukrainians will fight a guerrilla war if the invasion continues. And Ukrainian guerrillas are known for having defeated Hitler, which means that Putin stands no chance against them.

This is why he is now retracting and regrouping. This is a temporary lull in hostilities, of course. The goal of rising to the role of the world’s greatest superpower has not been abandoned.

11 thoughts on “Ukraine and Russia: Update

  1. This petty illiterate dictator, who can hardly speak Russian without using criminal jargon, a pathetic little man gesticulating and grimacing in the most ridiculous way, seems to be sure that he is a messiah supposed to save Russia from the rest of the world.
    Trusting this miserable freak is out of the question. To say that he is a zero would be an exaggeration: he is minus one.

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  2. Almost all the western countries are united against Russia because they are afraid that Russia may become the leading world power.That would be nice for mankind.We don’t like the arrogance of the western politicians.They lie a lot en betray the people.

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    1. Sir (or maybe comrade), are you sure you are in the right place? You seem to speak English the way your Kremlin idol speaks Russian. What is ‘en’? What is ‘mankind’ – what kind of man do you have in mind? And the last but not the least: who are those ‘we’? Your Kremlin-based idol used the same pronoun, ‘We (sic!) would have won without them (sic!)’. If Putin and the ones like you are Russia, then who are Tchaikovsky, Dostoevsky, Mandelstam, Stoloypin, Alexander II, and many others?

      Could you please leave us alone, comrade? Could your beloved ‘messiah’ leave Ukraine alone?

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  3. Putin lost his “war” the day he invaded a sovereign nation. He is pitting Russia’s weak economy against the combined economies of the US and EU. The “great Russian economic boom” was and is totally dependent on energy exports. The ruble is down 8% (a week old number) against the dollar this year which drives up the cost of imports. Economists expect the slide to continue. The IMF has downgraded the Russian growth forecast twice in a month (April, 2014) reporting that the economy is in recession. Car manufacturers and steel plants have begun layoffs. Over $70 billion has moved out of Russia this year. The “great Russian economic boom” is at an end. Putin can posture. He can turn off energy exports. That would hurt the EU. But it would cripple Russia and sink it into a severe economic depression. Over 50% of the annual budget is dependent on energy export. Already in a recession because of the sanctions, Putin seems to be smart enough to know that further invasion of the Ukraine will result in harsh sanctions. Facile comments just say that Putin will “just sell to China.” Russia exports a quantity of oil to China now. Russian used loans from China to build refineries and the pipeline. Oil is to be the payment for those loans over a 20 year time span. China and Russia are about to sign a natural gas agreement. China will pay about 2/3 the amount the EU is paying today — barely the break even point for a Russian profit. Russia has to build a 22 billion dollar pipeline (oops … update here: it might be a 55 billion dollar pipeline) which will be ready in 2018 at the earliest. Putin has backed himself into an economic corner. All Europe remembers the era of the Soviet dictatorship. Eastern Europe remembers the decades of occupation when they were slave states to the Soviet. Germany remembers the decades when their country was split in two. They won’t allow Putin to put the pieces of that Soviet dictatorship back together. And America remembers.

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    1. Great comment, thank you Dennis. Russians have deluded themselves into believing that their economy is strong. In reality, however, there is no economy to speak of. They exploit their natural resources without realizing how dependent and risky it is to pin the entire economy just on that. They will pay the price for this collective delusion but when they realize the extent of their error it will be too late.

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  4. Russians aren’t the only country that “deludes” itself. America is in the midst of an extreme right wing hallucinogenic “mind meld”. I wonder if their consumption of processed bread didn’t include ergot. Some believe that ergot was a main force behind the French Revolution — and, I suppose, the “terror”.

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    1. I always suspected there was something deeply wrong with the processed bread. 🙂

      And yes, there is too much insanity on the far right and it’s only getting worse.

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  5. I guess you live in southern Illinois. I’m in the same state — but further north — just a nudge west of Chicago. Politically, I think we live in two different states. If it weren’t for Chicago and a few other “properly thinking areas” (my perception), IL would just be another TX wannabe. Or close to it. (But what the heck does one do with Mike Madigan?)

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    1. Yes, I am in a deep red patch on the electoral map. The ideas our students bring to the classroom are often scary. And there are endless tensions between the locals and the “newcomers” who work for the university.

      But somebody has got to bring civilization to the small, backwards towns!

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