So? What’s up with the elections in Israel? Who won?
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Clarissa's Blog 
“Too close to call”
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Too close to call
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Israel’s parliamentary government system means that in close elections, a workable coalition has to be worked out among parties before a prime minister can be named. Could be days, or even weeks.
At least, American’s winner-take-all system generally decides its Presidential election quickly.
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Ah, so this will now drag out.
Sounds unexciting.
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Here’s a link to an Israeli blog, which summarizes the situation in depth.
Based largely on exit polls, it seems likely that Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, will remain the Prime Minister, possibly in a coalition with Hertzog’s “Zionist” party.
We won’t know the final election results until late tomorrow at the earliest, and we probably won’t know for sure who forms a coalition with whom until later.
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Thank you for the link. This is great voter turnout, very heartening. At least, somebody still believes in representational democracy.
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You’re full of good news today.
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I report, you decide!
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For some mysterious reason, I have a very anti-Bibi Twitter but a hugely pro-Bibi blogroll. The blogroll says Likud won but the Twitter disagrees.
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\ The Prime Minister of all Israelis is spending today telling Jewish citizens that leftists are bringing “busloads of Arabs” to the polls.
Actually, he also mentioned American money. SB, you should read Israeli sites, if you wish to know anything real about us. 🙂 See:
\ “Voter turnout in the Arab sector is three times higher! The threat is real: Abu Mazen’s calls and American money are getting the Arab vote out. Go and vote,” a message sent by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud party informed Israelis during Election Day. \
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4638010,00.html
Btw, I voted for Netanyahu not because of this message but despite it. (And despite a few other things.)
\ Looks like Netanyahu’s little stunt of speaking to the US congress worked for him.
I don’t think it was this “little stunt.” Netanyahu and Likud are popular without any connection to one speech or another. The party has strong base, it’s not something fickle or “stunt”-like.
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I for one can’t imagine a more perfect representative of the state of Israel than a racist, mass-murderer.
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I assume you’re envisioning a take-over by Hamas butchers…
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http://newsdiffs.org/diff/855224/855448/www.nytimes.com/2015/03/18/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-elections-arabs.html
NY Times wrote about his racism and then chickened out at the last minute. As always.
At least the Republicans here are covert about their fears of a high minority voter turnout. This guy, he don’t give a shit.
Now that Netanyahu has finally come out and said that there’s never going to be a two state solution, it’ll be interesting to see how it affects liberal zionism in the US.
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Looks like Netanyahu’s little stunt of speaking to the US congress worked for him. I can think of no other nation that would pull that kind of insulting stunt while receiving so much US military aid, and no other opposing party that would welcome it.
FWIW: My dad, who’s conservative was totally indignant over the whole thing and Congress’s behavior. Geopolitical linchpin politics can and do change.
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“I can think of no other nation that would pull that kind of insulting stunt while receiving so much US military aid, and no other opposing party that would welcome it.”
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LIVE BLOG: Herzog congratulates Netanyahu, refuses to say whether he’ll join coalition
Final results: Netanyahu’s Likud scores decisive victory in Israeli election, set to win 30 Knesset seats, Zionist Union gets 24 • Netanyahu calls for ‘strong’ government to safeguard security, welfare • Meretz leader Zehava Galon resigns in wake of election results.
With nearly all votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is set to emerge as the election’s big winner with 30 seats. The Zionist Union trails behind with 24 seats. The Joint List of Arab parties is the third-largest party at this point, followed by Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Habayit Hayehudi, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, United Torah Judaism, Meretz and Yahad.
President Reuven Rivlin said he would work for a national unity government.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.647304
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The Central Election Committee has released the election results for each municipality in Israel, and Likud had the largest number of votes in eight out of the 10 largest cities in the country. Only in Tel Aviv and Haifa did the Zionist Union outpoll Likud.
AND
Based on the final election results, a record number of women, far more Arabs and considerably fewer Orthodox lawmakers will serve in the next Knesset. There will also be fewer parties represented among its 120 members thanks to the increase in the minimum threshold for representation.
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“Ottomans and Zionists” wrote about the elections, and I wanted to post the comment:
\ Even as someone uncomfortable with Atwater’s Southern Strategy and concerned about racism, I can’t help but feel like the analogy between Bibi and yr fictional American right-winger is missing an important nuance. The Joint List is partially composed of both a nationalist political movement and an Islamist political movement. It isn’t all Balad and Hadash which means that Arab voting has a direct correlation to explicitly anti-Israel movements. Right-wingers have legitimate non-racist reasons to be concerned about certain expressions of Arabic democracy (those designed to undermine Israel and ultimately democracy itself). By contrast, the US has no politically active black liberation / separatist movement, so any fear-mongering about black voters can be /only/ racist. \
He has also rightly written (before the news of the Left’s defeat) that:
/I have a piece in Foreign Affairs today in which I argue that on foreign and security issues – Iran, the peace process, settlements, fighting with Hamas, etc. – a Herzog prime ministership will look very much like Netanyahu’s prime ministership has. Here is the setup to my argument/
So, SB, Israel’s policies don’t depend on one man. Herzog wouldn’t have been much different in practice. Some in Israel commented : “The Left wouldn’t be able to get any fake peace agreement anyway because of Palestinians’ stance.” By “fake” is meant “not really stopping to work against Israel’s existence and shooting rockets at Tel Aviv better / worse than ever.”
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The way I understood it, the whole scandal revolves around Netanyahu saying that there would be no 2-state solution. It’s either 2-state or more of the same: war, rockets, bombing, terror, fear. Nobody is saying that 2-state guarantees an end to all that but at least it would be an effort to try something different.
I do understand people’s frustration when Netanyahu says that there will be several years more of exactly the same.
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Look at it this way, Clarissa: Israel making “peace” with the terrorists in Gaza is no more feasible at this time than Ukraine making “peace” with Putin. Can’t be done between the parties, and can’t be forced upon the parties by external powers.
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I agree completely, all of the peace treaties in Israel would be a joke. And the analogy with the frustrating and useless “peace process” in Ukraine is good. But other than the 2-state solution, what else is there? It’s not a rhetorical question. I’m sure there is an answer that I don’t know.
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“What else is there? It’s not a rhetorical question. I’m sure there is an answer that I don’t know.”
The answer is a generation away — and it will ALWAYS be a generation away, until the Arabs stop raising their children from the age of kindergarten onward to hate Israel as an absolutely unacceptable evil. You can’t tell your children that your next-door neighbor is the mythical Satan, and then expect them to live peacefully alongside him after they grow up.
I was in college when the Six-Day War started in 1967. While my class was waiting for the professor, a student got up and wrote on the blackboard, “Go Jews!” After he sat down, another student got up and added the words “to Hell.” The first student got back up, erased the infinitive, and replaced it with “to Cairo.” The second student then added, “so you can get fucked.”
In the early 1990’s I was on active duty with the U.S. military in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi military maps, which, if only as a matter of practical necessity, should be as accurate as possible, didn’t show Israel at all — didn’t even depict the internationally acknowledged borders with a euphemism like “Zionist Entity.”
Before I joined the military in the mid-1970’s, I was a civilian psychiatrist on the staff of a California State Hospital, and was in charge of two wards of patients institutionalized by the California courts. One group was comprised of “Mentally Disordered Sex Offenders.” The other ward’s patients were “Criminally Insane” — mostly paranoid schizophrenic murderers.
The older I get, the more I realize that the whole world is a loony bin. I didn’t accept that fact when I was your age, and it really doesn’t bother me now. Sorry to be selfish, but it’s no longer my fight.
Fortunately for the future, young people like you are still fighting back. Good luck!
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\ I do understand people’s frustration when Netanyahu says that there will be several years more of exactly the same.
Who are those frustrated people? Americans and other foreigners?
With Herzog it would be exactly the same too. At least, regarding the (results of) peace process. Interesting at which point EU and America would’ve turned against Herzog, when peace failed to magically appear.
Most Israelis wish Obama to leave, so what? Americans chose Obama, and Israelis – Likud headed by Netanyahu. Others don’t count in either case.
\ Nobody is saying that 2-state guarantees an end to all that but at least it would be an effort to try something different.
People think “We tried something different in Gaza. Now many Israelis wish we never left. While IDF was there, there were no rockets.”
In my opinion, I have only one life to live and 2-state guarantees:
Hamas slaughtering Abu Mazen, throwing his men off roofs and taking power pretty much immediately.
Arab countries sending “refugees” into that state by force, even if / when quite a few wouldn’t want to go to that hell. Imagine many more millions of Palestinians in that nonviable (in any case, unable to support them) state. More radicalized people to blame me for all their ills, turning to reigious fundamentalism & political radicalism. Waging wars against Israel as the way for Hamas to preserve power and for the Palestinian people to direct their aggression about their horrible lives against somebody.
Palestinians shooting from one half of Jerusalem into its other half with the Wall and our knesset, from the West Bank to Tel Aviv’s airport and to our nuclear station in Dimona. And so on.
Doesn’t it sound great? It would horribly hurt both my security and economic situation. And the first is more important: w/o life you can’t enjoy the “good” economy of enemy state shooting at airports and cutting you off the rest of the civilized world.
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Americans are paying for the whole thing, so let’s not dismiss their concerns as trivial. Netanyahu surely doesn’t think that American concerns are unimportant. Would he have wasted time on coming to speak to Congress if he didn’t care about American concerns? I’ve read the speech, and I can see he’s worried that the US will turn away, if not immediately then within this generation.
The US doesn’t even remotely depend on Israel financially or militarily in order to exist, so let’s leave weak analogies.
The way I understand your response about 2 states is that you believe the current situation can be dragged out for the next 80 years, after which you don’t care what happens because we won’t be around any longer. Cynical as it may be, you are entitled to this position, just like anybody else is.
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“Israel making “peace” with the terrorists in Gaza is no more feasible at this time than Ukraine making “peace” with Putin”
Wow, you’re terrible at analogies. How is Ukraine, the weaker party in the Russia-Ukraine situation, analogous to Israel, the powerful party in the Israel-Palestine situation.
I would ask you to have some shame and humanity, but looks like it’s no more feasible than Netanyahu wanting to stop killing children.
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Come on, Stringer, you’re asking for shame and humanity, in a world where shame and humanity are dead? How long have you been out of kindergarten?
The “stronger party” Israelis have been kicking away the rabid rat at their heels for almost seventy years now, and the broken rodent still doesn’t get the hint that it isn’t going to win the fight?
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“But other than the 2-state solution, what else is there? It’s not a rhetorical question. I’m sure there is an answer that I don’t know.”
AFAICT no one who’s in a position to do anything about it wants a two state solution. Both sides want all of Israel and all of the west bank and gaza (and a few other places).
And, basically…. they’re right about the two state solution being a non-starter. Palestinian factions hate each other as much as they do the Israelis (or very close to it) and there’s no Palestinian authority who can enforce unpopular decisions on the ground. Any 2 state solution is going to make some people unhappy. Israel can enforce a decision on the ground and Palestinians can’t.
Remember Gaza, the Israelis left a whole bunch of perfectly fine infrastructure behind and the Palestinians destroyed it because …… Palestine!
Back in the early to mid 1990s Palestinians had a chance to show they could run a modern state (and there was hope and a bunch of Palestinians returned to help develop the country) and within short order it turned to shit because of corruption.
Practically speaking there are very few options.
Back out of it, let both sides have at it and deal with whichever side remains after the dust settles. (downside: it will be very, very ugly and lots of civilians will be killed)
Occupy the whole territory stay on indefinitely as an occupying force keeping the ethno-religious violence to as low a level as possible. (downside: no one wants to do this and even if they wanted to, they couldn’t)
Kick the can down the road as everybody’s been doing for the last 50 or so years. (downside: it’s freaking depressing, so stop thinking about it)
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The thread is getting very depressive since Bibi won. 🙂
I agree that everybody just kicks it down the road and into the future. I’m wondering if the hope is that eventually the Muslim world will get through its difficulties with modernity and join the rest of the world in the present.
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Lovely article.
“The biggest losers in this election were those who made the argument that change could come from within Israel. It can’t and it won’t.
.
.
Israelis have grown very comfortable with the status quo. In a country that oversees a military occupation that affects millions of people, the biggest scandals aren’t about settlements, civilian deaths or hate crimes but rather mundane things like the price of cottage cheese and whether the prime minister’s wife embezzled bottle refunds.
.
.
Mr. Netanyahu’s re-election has convincingly proved that trusting Israeli voters with the fate of Palestinian rights is disastrous and immoral. His government will oppose any constructive change, placing Israel on a collision course with the rest of the world.”
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Like in the US elections are about anything other than celebrity – style gossip and triviality. The space of politics has been occupied by the aggressively private everywhere.
What I find disturbing here is that neither side is even attempting to address the other side’s concerns. The pro-Israel side is not responding anything, not a word to the extremely legitimate concern of how Palestinians are supposed to keep existing in these horrifying, subhuman conditions.
And the pro-Palestine side is not even trying to say anything to the effect of how they know that the independent Palestine will not become a training camp for terrrorists.
Everybody is speaking to themselves and the supporters they have already convinced. Both sides are sitting there, trying to see whether outside of Israel Islamophobia will win over anti-Semitism or vice versa. And I’m afraid that they will both win.
Odious as the task is, the other side’s concerns have to be addressed. Do you think I enjoy repeating for the umpteenth time “No, there is no Nazi Junta in Kiev. The reason you think there is …”? The rhetoric of “you are all children -killing murderers and crazy terrorists” is very enjoyable. And completely useless.
This is a conflict where both sides desperately need for the world to pay attention and give support. Yet both sides are acting like the Russians who have zero interest or need of a world-wide audience. The next step in the process is not, like this article’s author hopes, the world swapping the “Fuck Palestinians” position for “Fuck Israel. ” The next step is “Oh, fuck you both.” And that will be a disaster for the region.
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// I agree that everybody just kicks it down the road and into the future. I’m wondering if the hope is that eventually the Muslim world will get through its difficulties with modernity and join the rest of the world in the present.
I heard this idea before in Israel: that we can’t make peace while the Arab world is in its present state and should wait for the better future. When Liberman talked with Kerry about the need for “a comprehensive regional agreement” since “Israel’s ongoing conflict is not only with the Palestinians, but the entire Arab world – of which the Palestinians are a part,” he seems to agree with the position / hope you mentioned. Lapid, a centrist politician, also talked about the need for regional agreement.
I don’t think such hope is cynical. Imo, it’s realistic.
\ I can see he’s worried that the US will turn away, if not immediately then within this generation.
I don’t think Israel can do anything about US turning away. Don’t you agree? As long as America needs us for its own goals, it’ll support Israel. The moment American interests change, it’ll leave us, no matter what we do. Actually, one could argue that, in part because of the latter, Israel shouldn’t put itself into a dangerous, weakened position and then remain alone against the Palestinian state used as a terrorist base for our enemies.
// The next step is “Oh, fuck you both.” And that will be a disaster for the region.
Why and how? The region is horrible w/o any connection to my country: ISIS, Shia / Sunni, etc.
Btw, read comments to an English news site and saw people saying stuff like:
“The result has set peace back a decade
And given yet more fuel to ISIL
If Israel would behave moderate Muslims could produce a cohesive force to wipe out IS”
Doesn’t EU seem to share this view, judged by obsessive interest in Israel? Or, does the interest seem obsessive to me? Quoted the above, since the same person offered:
“We need to get back to the 2 state solution
The Republicans must join Obama in sticking the boot in
*
What about
We will screw Iran in return for a Palestinian State”
🙂
(SB, the former quote isn’t me expressing support for the idea. Just after talking with you on the blog, I immediately thought about our exchanges after reading the latter suggestion.)
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“I don’t think such hope is cynical. Imo, it’s realistic.”
“I don’t think Israel can do anything about US turning away. Don’t you agree?”
“As long as America needs us for its own goals, it’ll support Israel. The moment American interests change, it’ll leave us, no matter what we do.”
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“Why and how? The region is horrible w/o any connection to my country: ISIS, Shia / Sunni, etc..”
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\ All I’m saying is that to retain that support, you need to start hearing people’s concerns.
I am unsure what Israel may do both to hear people’s concerns and not to endanger itself in the long tern by signing “peace” treaties. You yourself said in this thread: “all of the peace treaties in Israel would be a joke.” What next?
I can only think about encouraging economic development in the West Bank w/o giving up IDF presence. But the situation in Gaza is worse, and I am sure Hamas would invest most of the resources in preparing for the next war, the way it’s doing now. I don’t understand how Gaza and West Bank can be one state, when there are at the opposite sides of Israel. It is shown on the 1st page of this pdf (Linking the Gaza Strip with the West Bank: Implications of a Palestinian Corridor Across Israel):
Click to access TheSafePassage.pdf
I began looking at page 27 “Suggestions for the Implementation of Safe
Passage.” Looks a bit like sci-fi, honestly.
\ You are suggesting that there are some mysterious goals and interests that will keep overriding these gut-wrenching stories and images of the plight of civilian Palestinians forever but there aren’t.
How does it go together with your words
“– The US is extremely interested in having a constant conflict going on in the region. ”
AND
(el) “Israel is valuable to America precisely because of our strength. ”
(Clarissa) – Not in the least. Israel is valuable because it can be relied upon to be the epicenter of an endless conflict in the region.
From this post:
Btw, have you continued reading Tony Judt? I would love to read more about his book.
I found one interpretation: “it’s good for American interests, aka standard of living, to have Israel as the epicenter of an endless conflict. However, Americans also wish to feel themselves as pure as new snow, unwilling to see themselves as choosing one of the two grey sides because of interests XYZ. Therefore, Israel needs to find a good, convincing, meaningful narrative addressing the concerns of the opponent. Most likely, the narrative won’t lead to any positive developments in the short term, as far as Palestinians are concerned. But it’ll let Americans feel they are supporting the ‘right’ side and American feelings are the most important issue here.”
Have I understood you correctly?
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“I am unsure what Israel may do both to hear people’s concerns and not to endanger itself in the long tern by signing “peace” treaties.”
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““– The US is extremely interested in having a constant conflict going on in the region. ”
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““it’s good for American interests, aka standard of living, to have Israel as the epicenter of an endless conflict. However, Americans also wish to feel themselves as pure as new snow, unwilling to see themselves as choosing one of the two grey sides because of interests XYZ. Therefore, Israel needs to find a good, convincing, meaningful narrative addressing the concerns of the opponent. Most likely, the narrative won’t lead to any positive developments in the short term, as far as Palestinians are concerned. But it’ll let Americans feel they are supporting the ‘right’ side and American feelings are the most important issue here.””
It is enormously hard to see the humanity of both sides but we, the good people, have got to do it.
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// Would he have wasted time on coming to speak to Congress if he didn’t care about American concerns?
So, you don’t think his coming to USA was 100% a part of his election campaign, intended for Israelis alone?
// Like in the US elections are about anything other than celebrity – style gossip and triviality. The space of politics has been occupied by the aggressively private everywhere.
Actually, Israeli voters care about security the most, and imo most weren’t that interested in “whether the prime minister’s wife embezzled bottle refunds.” Otherwise, Likud wouldn’t have gotten 30 seats.
Imo, in Israel, serving in IDF, one’s relatives serving there and living with sirens limits the tendency to turn politics into something trivial.
As for “mundane things like the price of cottage cheese,” if we live with the conflict and understand we won’t see its end in our lives, why shouldn’t we care about economy?
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“And the pro-Palestine side is not even trying to say anything to the effect of how they know that the independent Palestine will not become a training camp for terrorists.”
Ultimately it depends on whether you fall into the ‘No justice, no peace’ camp or the ‘No peace, no justice’ camp. The latter, of course, being the mantra of oppressors everywhere.
Remember during Ferguson, there was a class of people only focused on the ‘looters’ and ‘rioters’ and used isolated incidents to further justify clamping down upon the city’s black population? Good times.
The ‘No peace, no justice’ crowd everywhere in the world will always find a reason to deny liberties to people they oppress.
‘Now let me put my boot on your neck and contemplate for the next few decades how to give you your freedom. Until then, not a peep from you otherwise this arrangement becomes permanent.’
We have seen this before.
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“Remember during Ferguson, there was a class of people only focused on the ‘looters’ and ‘rioters’ and used isolated incidents to further justify clamping down upon the city’s black population? Good times.”
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My head is spinning already:
Netanyahu Reverses Course on ‘Two-State Solution’ in Post-Election Interview
Two days after a dramatic Israeli election that all but secured a fourth term for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader sat down with NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent (and host of “Andrea Mitchell Reports” on msnbc) Andrea Mitchell for his first post-election interview. Netanyahu addressed where he stands on a Palestinian statehood and the prospect of an Iran deal.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/5-things-know-netanyahu-first-post-election-interview
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It’s good that he saw fast enough that the previous position is unsustainable. But I’m sure that many voters’ feel that their heads are spinning.
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“previous position is unsustainable”
Not for him. He just realized that it wasn’t smart to explicitly say it, that’s all. There’s nothing about his actions that suggests that he’ll ever favor a two state solution. Now he can go back to negotiating in bad faith.
Pay lip service to the idea of a two-state solution so that his allies in the US can continue supporting everything he does without feeling too bad. Business as usual.
‘Look, he’s trying!’
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I don’t think he “saw fast” or “just realized.” He is smart enough to see many moves ahead. It’s all a part of political games. During elections he was fighting for voters of more Right parties. Now he is at the stage of damage control in America. If there is no chance for peace now and won’t be for years yet, does it matter what he really thinks about 2 state solution? There are enough other things to think of:
UN says violence on Lebanon-Israel border risks new conflict
Security Council warns recent violence along Israel’s border with Lebanon poses threat for renewed conflict after spotting unauthorized weapons in UN buffer zone.
[…]
The violence in late January killed two Israeli soldiers and a UN peacekeeper from Spain and sparked fears of yet another crippling war between the two neighboring countries. It was the deadliest escalation on the disputed border since the 2006 war between Lebanese Hezbollah militants and Israel.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4639085,00.html
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Uri about election results:
http://www.avnery-news.co.il/english/
Can you access “The Messiah Hasn’t Come” column?
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“Lieberman had great difficulties in crossing his own threshold”
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Israel only nation condemned in UN for women’s right violations
Israel slams UN Commission on the Status of Women for using women’s rights to attack Israel over Palestinians.
Out of nine official documents produced from the UN’s annual Commission on the Status of Women report, only one of the UN’s 193 members were mentioned in regards to ongoing infringement of women’s rights – Israel – in what Jerusalem says in another case of UN bias.
The document, titled the “Situation of and assistance to Palestinian women”, slams Israel for the ongoing occupation of the West Bank, a situation which it says has led to “(h)igh levels of unemployment and poverty” among Palestinians, especially women.
[…]
It was the only report that focused on any specific country, and seemed to focus largely on the Palestinian issue, occasionally tying it in with gender-related issues, for example unemployment, which was the main complaint sounded by the report.
It is worth noting that according to a 2014 World Economic Forum report, Israel ranked 57th out 137 for female political empowerment; the US ranked 54th and Saudi Arabia ranked 117th. Some 27 of Israel’s 120 Knesset members are women.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4639165,00.html
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“Out of nine official documents produced from the UN’s annual Commission on the Status of Women report, only one of the UN’s 193 members were mentioned in regards to ongoing infringement of women’s rights – Israel – in what Jerusalem says in another case of UN bias.”
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About with whom our conflict is (from another Israeli Jew):
http://lynx9.livejournal.com/1077276.html#comments
Translation:
~1/4 ее населения = Arab citizens of Israel
воспринимается ~1/2 как = 1/2 of Israeli Jews think so
Imo, more than 1/2.
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A parody of the Israeli elections:
dovbear.blogspot.com/2015/03/2017-election-results-are-in.html
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Agreed with this opinion column:
We don’t need another failure
Op-ed: Given the upheaval in the Arab world, Obama needs to ask himself why he thinks a Palestinian state is viable right now; meanwhile, Israel’s right needs to understand that its actions are leading to a bi-national state.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4641650,00.html
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