So it didn’t fail, after all. Let’s see if anybody is actually interested in letting the will of the people – misguided as it may be – be done. The IMF was very opposed to Brexit, to the point of coming up with ridiculous statements that UK incomes will be permanently damaged if Brexit occurs. These tools couldn’t even predict the global economic crisis of the 2008-9, but now they can suddenly predict what will happen for ever and ever. Yeah, right.
Brexit Didn’t Fail
Clarissa's Blog 
Well, if that’s true (after all, some U.S. news shows projected an Al Gore victory on election night in 2000) and if Wall Street follows the IMF’s lead, your readers with loot in the stock market are about to take a temporary kick in the wallet.
If it’s true, and Cameron survives as British PM (he won’t), he’d better send in troops to occupy Scotland before that area lets the Brexit victory go to its head.
This may turn out to be a more interesting night than I thought.
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Oh, I so hope the Scotland silliness doesn’t start all over again. What an infernal bore.
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How could it not??
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The media pundits and the SNP would love it if it was. And, as my inner cynic and inner conspiracy theorist seem unanimous about, possibly the entire establishment.
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Cameron has just agreed to resign, in October. So far that’s the only good thing to come out of this farrago. The bad thing is we’ll probably get Boris Johnson as pm. He reminds me of Trump, but with more brains – very dangerous.
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The economic establishment is only ever interested in serving its own agendas according to its own ideologies. Markets rule, making money rules for those with capital, any other interests must be subservient or else. Democracy? Are you serious?
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What impact might the Brexit vote have on U.S. politics?
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One perspective you might enjoy I think (and probably seems ironic at first for me to argue), is the way the media and the “elite” say the people shot themselves in the foot today because the currency and stock market is down. Well, considering that less than 20% and probably less than 10% have a meaningful bit of wealth in the stock market, the market “crashing” does not hurt the average british citizen.
In fact, they may be better off as while it may decrease british profits, most of their citizens willl have increased bargaining power and increased relative wages. Biggest expense for companies worldwide is wages. Higher wages equals lower profits (all else the same). The interests of workers and capitalists are not aligned in the current world (in theory capitalism can work better than this and I do think it may in the future with more reforms) and this is misunderstood when people complain about how policy might effect the “stock market”.
What is most funny is elites, especially liberal elites, totally ignore this and /or degrade “white bigots” for being xenophobes who are shooting their economic interests to appease racism, when in reality the majority are trying to vote the economics that I just described, even if they don’t have as sophisticated a few of the financial world / capitalism dynamic that I described.
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“Well, considering that less than 20% and probably less than 10% have a meaningful bit of wealth in the stock market, the market “crashing” does not hurt the average british citizen.”
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despite your insulting tone, i know a wee bit more about the great depression and economic policy than you do. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 was closer (but still not) to the great depression due to incredible leverage in the financial sector which led to negative externatilites for the rest of the economy, even non stockholders.
So yep, terrible analogy on your part, and due to your rudeness i will indeed ask: do you even understand the financial and economic terms I used in my comment 🙂 have a blessed day
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\Oh, I so hope the Scotland silliness doesn’t start all over again.
Why only Scotland?
The Spanish government has called for joint sovereignty over Gibraltar in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
“The Spanish flag on the Rock is much closer than before,” Spain’s acting Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo said on Friday.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36618796
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Of course, Gibraltar should absolutely be returned to Spain. There are silly claims, and then there are legitimate ones.
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What a shitshow.
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What?? Cameron resigned? I’m missing everything here.
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He said he’ll resign in October.
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Последствия Brexit: круглый стол экспертов ЛБ
…
По мнению народного депутата, сопредседателя группы по межпарламентским связям с Соединенным Королевством Алексея Рябчина, проблема выхода Великобритании из ЕС назревала давно. И для него она стала очевидной года три назад во время прохождения обучения в этой стране.
…
Исполнительный директор Международного Фонда Блейзера Олег Устенко думает, что проигрывая в краткосрочной перспективе, Британия в итоге выиграет в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе за счет возрастания экспорта, снижения импорта в страну и уменьшения внешнего долга, “который одномоментно стал гораздо дешевле”. “Они ушли с отметки 1,5 (фунта к доллару – ред.) к 1,25. Их долг для них стал дешевле. Они теперь меньше будут тратить своего ВВП на обслуживание государственного долга и государственного гарантирования.
http://trim-c.livejournal.com/1155738.html#comments
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Impressive. And also quite sad.
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If the above chart is hard to read, here it is in a different format:
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Cannot speak for the accuracy of this, but these are supposed to be word clouds of the leave and remain supporters’ arguments.
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I had no doubt it’s all about immigration. It’s been pathetically mishandled, just horribly. It was a disaster in the making, and here is finally that disaster.
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\I had no doubt it’s all about immigration.
So, the size of the word reflects its importance, as I thought.
Wonder whether Angela Merkel feels any responsibility or regret.
Also, immigration affects economy. Negatively, if the immigration is uncontrolled.
And there are other important things besides economy. Like the ability to walk on the streets without fear which quite a few people began to lose.
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“I had no doubt it’s all about immigration”
that depends on the definition of “immigration” by the traditional definition (leaving one’s original society/country to join another) there is almost no immigration in the UK or the EU.
French or Polish people in the UK are not immigrants they’re part of the free movement of people and labor.
Refugees and/or asylum seekers are not regarded as immigrants and when governments try to treat them as such (enoucraging or requiring them to learn the local language, conform to local practices and/or find a job) the progressive left starts to raise holy hell.
Most commonwealth movement into the UK is not about joining british society at all but about joining family or relatives in ethno-religious-cultural ghettos. One study supposedly found that there are fourth generation Pakistani Brits who in language and culture terms are like first generation.
Finally, throughout the EU anyone who conswiders themselves middle class or above would rather be boiled in oil than be called an “immigrant” (with its suggestions of unskilled disposability and/or need to adapt to local conditions).
A major disaster and this is not the disaster, it’s a foretaste of disasters to come…
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\ when governments try to treat them as [immigrants ] (enoucraging or requiring them to learn the local language, conform to local practices and/or find a job) the progressive left starts to raise holy hell.
I disagree here since the progressives do not expect the asylum seekers to ever leave EU and stress the (supposed) future economic contribution which aging Europeans need. Progressives also volunteer to help them learn local language and learn about the new European society in general.
\Finally, throughout the EU anyone who conswiders themselves middle class or above would rather be boiled in oil than be called an “immigrant” (with its suggestions of unskilled disposability and/or need to adapt to local conditions).
Regarding adapting to local conditions, I just read a lj post in Russian:
http://starshinazapasa.livejournal.com/924704.html
In short, he talks about Western worldwide culture (“Europe is not a continent. It is a way of thinking.”) and says the time of national identities has passed: “The differences [between cultures] will disappear completely. And national identities will remain only in local history museums…”
What it made me think of is that “throughout the EU anyone who conswiders themselves middle class or above” may see themselves as a part of a general worldwide (except in failed barbaric regions) Western/European culture. In such a worldview, anybody clinging to local customs is a failure at adapting to the new realities.
The educated local people already share the European culture of those “non-immigrants” you described. Only ignorant failures would demand from other Europeans to adapt to local customs, except in the most superficial and symbolic manner. And why should new “European successes” court the approval of local, stuck-in-the-past failures?
Just to mention, all this talk of international culture and leaving national identities behind makes me feel left out since Israel is 100% about national identity and “‘old values” of patriotism, sacrifice (f.e. compulsory IDF service), etc. 🙂 On the other hand, I do not see how my state may behave differently when Middle East is in its present state. 😦 From my location, worrying only about the economy and unification with neighbors (who share one’s culture in the greatest degree) is a dream. EU or no EU.
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Plus. more generational hatred. Who knew the Brits hated the baby boomers as much as the Americans do? (who knew they had baby boomers, I’m pretty sure their economy was in the toiler for a good ten years after WWII_
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People are so obsessed with baby boomers that I even heard Ukrainians talk about Ukrainian baby boomers. Which is nuts because we had no baby boom after the war. To the contrary, birth rates dropped off a cliff.
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My students are always confused when I talk about American generational conflicts, generation gaps are found here but on a completely different schedule. And at the end of this academic year I have to say a Polish sort of version of millenials are here….. god help me.
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If it’s not a secret, cliff, which subject are you teaching?
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Different stuff, the generations comes up in a class I’ve done a few times which is an introduction to issues affecting American society (focusing on things that most people in Poland have never heard about and/or have wildly unrealistic ideas about).
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WW2 ended, for the UK, in 1945. Rationing didn’t end until 1954. Many UK homes still had outdoor toilets in the 1970’s. Baby boomers is an American concept.
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SB mentioned only age, but what about median annual income of residents or percentage with higher education? It’s more PC to rage against old people than against poor uneducated ones.
We examined six key demographic measures for each voting area and mapped them against the results in each location.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/jun/24/the-areas-and-demographics-where-the-brexit-vote-was-won
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A good short article:
Meet the Radical Majority
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-24/globalization-s-discontents-are-many
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Brexit, a Still Life, by Anastasia Piliavsky (Odessa-Cambridge)
Russian saying: “остаться на бобах” / “to be left with beans” (meaning: no other better food at home)
https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13450170_10153533488991604_2410337987430444734_n.jpg?oh=bf0d4f0ea53866089b425f56985f4c95&oe=57C32F77
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For what it’s worth, I’m a Brit, in my sixties, I know lots of other Brits in their fifties and sixties – only one voted for leaving the EU. It’s not so much generational as is claimed. Most of us are in moods ranging from disbelief to despair. Blaming Cameron while correct doesn’t get us anywhere.
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I wouldn’t go for very facile explanations either. But a Leave vote was not inevitable. Just like here in the US Trump is not inevitable. We’ll have to get our shit together in a major way to avoid our own equivalent of the Brexit here in the US.
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