People keep asking what could be done to solve the Russia problem. I honestly don’t know, and anybody who claims to know is a liar.
Ideally, Russians would go the way of North Korea. Isolated and eating each other out of impotent rage. Not much damage to anybody but themselves.
But it won’t happen because Russia isn’t a follower culture like Korea or China. These are people who will never abandon the idea that they deserve world leadership. We often rationalize things too much, thinking that China must want to control the world because it has the resources for it and Russia can’t because it doesn’t. But that’s not how will and desire work. Russia wants to lead and China wants to follow because that’s the culture.
Russians will never stop coming up with new ways of remaking the world. Because that’s who they are. They have already turned the twentieth century on our planet into a bloodbath trying to achieve that goal. Now the 21st century is being eaten up by them, too.
And we can’t say, “OK, let them lead if they are so into it” like Tucker Carlsons do. Because wanting to lead doesn’t mean knowing how to do it. Whenever Russians do lead, the destination turns out to be a huge concentration camp.
So yeah. I have no idea. This is a serious problem and closing one’s eyes to avoid seeing it or other childish coping methods don’t work.
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I’d say it’s the Russians who are the follower culture. They’ve always been ruled by a Tsar and a small elite in the capital.
China has gone from being a mostly rural to mostly urban society in 30 years. Whatever their culture was in the past is no guarantee of the future.
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” the idea that they deserve world leadership”
This is a very good thread on that… how one russian’s passive acceptance of mass killings ‘for the good of our country’
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“the Russia problem”
Two snapshots…. both very depressing….
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/11/ecocide-russia-ukraine-war-kakhovka-dam-destroyed
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“But that’s not how will and desire work. Russia wants to lead and China wants to follow because that’s the culture. ”
I don’t think this is true at all. Ever heard of the Sino-Soviet split? I don’t know where your outdated idea that the Chinese are these docile puppies comes from.
China in one way or another will vassalize Russia. Their economy and army are orders of magnitude larger. Russia has already given in on Vladivostok:
https://eurasiantimes.com/new-163-years-china-wins-access-to-vladivostok-port-emerges/
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You saw what happened when Xi skedaddled to Russia recently. First of all, since when does the vassal sit comfortably at home while the overlord moseys over to pay obeisance? And then, after Xi publicly said he told Putin that nuclear non-proliferation is crucial to China, Putin announced that he decided to create a new nuclear state, Belarus. It’s a total slap in the face. And what did Xi do? Nothing. He swallowed and said thank you, kind sir.
Putin didn’t need to humiliate Xi. He could move his nukes to Belarus before or after. But he chooses this exact moment to show the world how irrelevant Xi is.
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That might have more been to save face. I would not claim Xi is irrelevant.
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Xi defers to Putin because of Soviet nostalgia. Just because the leaders still act like the relationship hasn’t changed since 1970 doesn’t mean younger generations of Chinese who grew up after the collapse of the USSR are going to feel any kind of deference to Russia.
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They’ll feel deference to somebody because it’s the culture. Have you seen those videos of stadiums full of Chinese learners of English who chant English phrases in unison? Here in the US we are lucky if we get 15 people to enroll in Chinese 101, and they won’t be chanting anything. People have a completely different level of self-respect.
What has China created as a leader in any field whatsoever? Even tiny, pathetic Colombia created a literature that both the US and the USSR went crazy for during the Cold War. Why couldn’t China? Has anybody read anything from China? Where is their Heidegger? Bauman? Marx?
Even the Wuhan lab was funded by Americans.
I’m not being mean to China but I wonder where people see leadership potential in a country that hasn’t come up with a single idea in any field that has led anybody anywhere.
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Even without original ideas, they are very good at putting things into production. This makes them a competitor in almost every industry. People who are original but can’t implement their ideas are much less of a threat.
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That’s exactly what I call a follower culture. People who can follow instructions effectively are very important and necessary. But they’ll never lead.
A follower is not an insult or a put down. It’s a very respectable way of being. At my university, gosh, if we had actual leadership, I’d be beyond happy to be a dedicated, responsible, joyful follower. I’m so good at it. Unfortunately, there’s currently nobody with anything remotely resembling a vision.
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Well, I did read your comments as a put down. Nobody in business can afford to ignore China. These days there are very serious discussions going on about how the US can stay competitive in areas like semiconductors due to China’s manufacturing strength.
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I’m all for manufacturing but the real winners are those who can invent a new semiconductor, or something completely different to substitute it. And to do that, you need a completely different society that nurtures completely different qualities in people for 200 years.
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They seem to be leading in research in multiple areas of tech. Research generally leads to new inventions.
https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/03/03/china_leads_tech_aspi/
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None of what you describe has any substantial significance. Putin seems to think that being a macho man showing how tough he is has any impact on the Chinese. If anything that is a sign of desperation.
The Chinese on the other hand are slowly chipping away Russia from Central Asia:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-calls-stable-secure-central-asia-2023-05-19/
and like I just showed you, getting access to a strategic port after 163 years.
That is significant.
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Russia is a fluid, open-border state. Migrants from Mexico can easily cross the US border bug nobody thinks this means that the US is Mexico’s vassal.
As for it being insignificant that Xi tried to lead and was immediately snubbed and put in his place, I don’t know what can be more significant to the issue at hand.
Maybe we mean different things when we speak of leadership. This might be a problem of definitions. When I say “leadership”, I mean having the world follow your direction of movement. You say “rainbows” and everybody hurries to hoist a rainbow flag like a patient monkey.
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I’m not talking about leadership here. I’m talking about who in this Russia-China relationship has the real POWER. China has all the power here because they can do without Russia easily, but Russia cannot do without China. THAT is what I am talking about.
It’s not North Korea levels bad, but Russia is heading in that direction.
Now, what you call leadership, seems very shallow to me in the example that you give. It’s like when you say no to a child, but they pout and do the opposite to show they can. But at the end of the day, they don’t hold the power in that scenario.
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“The official said an important element of China’s strategy “is a determined pursuit to amass and expand its national power to transform — at least — aspects of the international system to make it more favorable to the PRC’s political system and its national interests.” This is a prime aspect of both domestic and foreign policy initiatives.
The official noted that as part of this, there is a trend of more coercive military behavior by China. “We’ve seen more coercive and aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, including some of which we would highlight as being dangerous,” he said. This includes PLA ships and aircraft demonstrating unsafe and unprofessional behavior. ”
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3230682/china-military-power-report-examines-changes-in-beijings-strategy/
Seems pretty much as what you describe as “leadership”.
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Or forget rainbows. Take Marx. He said something 200 years ago, and still everybody is jumping up and down, including China.
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After the Cold War ended when the Soviet Union broke apart, the theme throughout the 1990s was that major wars were history, gone, done. But now it is more and more starting to feel like a pre-war world, like we might be on the cusp of another major war over the next few decades.
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“what could be done to solve the Russia problem”
My own idea (which has some chance of success if the world could be convinced to go along) is a long-term process to turn russians into citizens instead of what they are now…. serfs? subjects? apathetic murder junkies? the incarnation of evil banality?
russians have never had to collectively face up to their past and take responsibility which lets them continue their cozy narrative about being a becon of souful civilization constantly being betrayed by savages and ingrates….
The problem is no one wants to do the work to bring that about… Part of me thinks dripped out aid to Ukraine is a conscious western strategy to militarily exhaust russia (and not weak nerves and fecklessness…. hey, I’m an optimist) but I’m not sure if they have a plan for after that….
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Much of the dripped out aid is caused by production problems in the west due to overreliance on Asian manufacturing. Putin knew this, but Russian manufacturing is even worse.
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At least, this way the West has started to do something about its manufacturing capacities, and that’s good.
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“China’s manufacturing strength”
Is it though? Peter Zeihan (a mixed bag, but interesting and accurate enough often enough to pay attention to) says that China economic power is kind of over…. demographic (awful) and other factors (esp Xi’s cult of no-personality and lack of diplomacy) do not a good future make…
I mentioned to some young Chinese when China’s population was supposed to peak and they laughed and said no, it was five years ago (at least).
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This is the open question. Certainly demographic decline reduces the total workforce, but urbanization increases the number who can be employed productivity, still leaving them with far more workers than the US.
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“urbanization increases the number who can be employed”
But Xi…. a big weakness of the Chinese system is how much it depends on who’s running it and Xi is easily it’s worst leader since Mao…. a non-entity with no special talent beyond eliminating every potential rival.
The degree of negative selection going on means the entire system is incredibly fragile.
Another Zeihan video he contrasted russia and China… the US has very good intelligence on what the russian elite is doing and who’s talking to who about what and where certain people are at any given time (which is how they knew the invasion was going to happen).
China (probably under Xi’s influence) seemed to go radio silent a couple of years ago and nobody seemed to be talking to anybody (probably for fear of being accused of being a traitor or something). Instead regional people seemed to be…. guessing what Xi might want and doing stupid things like spraying disinfectant on airport runways to keep out covid…
If China goes back to a model from around 2010 or a little before and figures out how to balance traditional Chinese materialism with innovation and a pro-active attitude the sky could be the limit… but now? I dont’ see it…
Another problem is that like russia, China has no system of succession — once old emperor dies nothing happens until a new one is installed and starts making decisions.
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I think China has peaked and might even slump, but so what? That doesn’t mean they don’t still have a massive population, economy, and army.
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