That’s what the cheap and mega successful US presence in Afghanistan managed to avoid for 20 years. It was an extremely effective operation but the story we told ourselves about it turned it into a humiliating defeat. We have been so habituated to hearing how America sucks that we bought into an utterly erroneous explanation.
The result was a botched and unnecessary withdrawal from Afghanistan that entertained our enemies, made Putin comfortable to start a full-scale invasion, and is destroying the balance of power around the already complicated Pakistan.
This is why it matters what we tell ourselves about events that happen. You can take the biggest win and talk yourself into seeing it as a loss. And vice versa, obviously.
Clarissa's Blog 
Recently finished reading a fascinating memoir called *18 Years in the Khyber* by Warburton. The guy was stationed for most of his military career at Peshawar with the task of keeping the Khyber Pass open– which he did, successfully. It all fell apart the minute he retired, apparently. That was the British army, at the end of the 19th century. One gets the feeling not much has changed except the weaponry available, and a stalemate you can maintain, is a victory for however long you can maintain it.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Long before the withdrawal, most of the Afghan countryside was under Taliban control, wasn’t it?
For Pakistan, I think the most unfortunate development has been the removal of Imran Khan, who could have overseen an Erdogan-like victory of civilian democracy over military tutelage of politics. Instead the country remains under de facto military rule.
Then there’s conspiracy theories like, Neo-Taliban Afghanistan is a poison pill for China (or for China, Russia, even India) as those countries try to manage Central Asia independently of the West, via SCO etc. That might be opportunistic copium. It all depends, if Al Qaeda et al really are rebuilding themselves on that territory, for whom will they make more trouble, the east or the west?
LikeLike
The Taliban was always there but Pakistan was fine and mostly peaceful. The withdrawal put the tenuous peace in that complicated reason at risk. Now, yes, both India and China are in a much worse situation than before. And for what? To appease a bunch of ignorant weirdos at home who don’t see a profound difference between the US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan?
LikeLike
Pakistan going bankrupt due to lockdowns is probably the bigger factor there. That’s what made the political situation untenable and things far more dangerous. I have a colleague who works from there remotely..
LikeLike
Of course, lockdowns were a bad hit. But successful strategy anticipates all sorts of disruptions. If not, it’s not a strategy but a situational decision. Unfortunately, much of the US actions – both foreign and domestic – have stopped being a long game and turned into situational short-term responses.
“People are angry about George Floyd. Let’s dismantle police!”
“And then what?”
“Wo cares if it has support at this moment?”
LikeLike
So finally the Pakistan ISI managed to piss off just the right people within the Taliban that they’ll move against Pakistan?
They’ve been playing both sides, of course.
They’re not the only ones doing it, of course.
Oh, this will be lots of fun.
Where’s War Nerd when you need him?
LikeLike
Have you been deleting your old posts from 2019 and 2020? I wanted to quote you on Trump deciding to withdraw from Afghanistan and US withdrawing from Northern Syria, and your reasons for voting for Trump in 2020, but those are gone.
LikeLike
I put some posts in private to deflect spies.
But if the point is to demonstrate that I often change my mind, I freely concede it. Otherwise, I would still be sitting in that traffic jam I wrote about in the most recent post.
My thinking about Afghanistan changed after I talked to a retired general who is deep into foreign policy.
LikeLike