An October surprise in November: Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in Iowa – a state both campaigns assumed would be won handily by Trump.
https://x.com/carenbohan/status/1852855160248365268?t=ICiwjeQp9Rd0IsWI_sDjbg&s=19
In 2020, Trump lost the election for Republicans. The campaign was shoddy, unserious and just bad. But Trump is uncommonly good at learning. His 2024 campaign reversed most of the mistakes of four years ago. It’s a really good campaign that’s made some excellent moves. But it looks like this time Republicans will lose Trump the election, making him pay at the polls for policies he doesn’t even support.
Clarissa's Blog 
I think Republicans made the same mistake in picking Trump for 2024 that Democrats made when they picked Hillary in 2016. Everyone’s opinions on that person are completely baked in. Everyone knew Hillary and everyone had an opinion of her going into 2016. And the people who hated her really hated her and were not going to be won over. Trump was well known but not in the political sphere in 2016, and a lot of people were willing to give him a chance and see what he would do. But in 2024, political Trump is a known quantity, everyone has a well-developed opinion of him, and the people who hate him really hate him, he has no chance to win any of those people over to his side.
Also interesting that you perceive Trump to be running a solid campaign this time. I’ve seen several different articles suggesting that the Republican ground game and get out the vote efforts are a total mess this time. My state is not really competitive in the presidential race, so there’s not much happening on that front here, but I do live in a very competitive congressional district. The Democrats appear to have way outspent the Republicans here, I see ten ads for the Democratic congressional candidate for each one I see for the Republican. And 90% of the ads are about abortion and how the Republican candidate is anti-abortion, someone clearly feels that is the winning issue.
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“it looks like this time Republicans will lose Trump the election”
I’m not sure. I’ve seen claims the Iowa poll is a fluke and/or out of step with other polls.
To be completely honest I sort of get the impression that neither side wants to win….
The republican establishment hates Trump, no one really likes Harris….
I’m not gonna predict anything though…
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The thing about the Selzer poll being out of step is that Selzer was out of step with other polls in 2016 and showed that Trump was doing much better and Hillary much worse than any other poll had predicted. And Selzer was correct about that. Selzer has a has an extremely good track record on Iowa races, that’s why its getting so much attention.
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Alternately, Selzer nailed it so well that in the intervening 8 years, the machine has put some effort into co-opting it, to avoid a repeat.
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“I’m not sure. I’ve seen claims the Iowa poll is a fluke and/or out of step with other polls.”
The other pollsters may just be over correcting in order avoid another 2016/2020 situation where they undercounted Trump support.
Honestly, I can totally see Trump losing the election over abortion. It’s such a huge issue that affects basically all women directly in some form or another.
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I’m agnostic about who wins this one. There’s some gnarly economic time-bombs that are going to blow no matter who is in office. You can only manipulate interest rates for so long before that lever stops working because it ain’t attached to anything anymore.
That said… I’m really curious to see how it does shake out. I don’t think either side has definitively lost this one yet, and I don’t trust anything about the polling. I do think whichever team wins it, is going to get KOed by the economy so massively that their party may crack up. Part of me would rather see that happen while D team has the serve… but either way it may not make a huge difference. Elite replacement cycles are always messy, and it looks like we are in one, like it or not.
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Go TRUMP WIN.
Prefer Harry Potter as fiction over noise testament Protocols of the Elders of Zion Roman counterfeit mythology. LORD Voldemort is dead.
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