War Won

13 thoughts on “War Won”

1. really? Nice!

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   1. The Strait of Hormuz is reopened, there’s a ceasefire and a peace plan. The nuclear destruction of 93 million Iranians that Tucker announced the other day didn’t materialize. He must be devastated.

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      1. Thank God. Maybe friends will be home early.

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2. I note that you don’t specify *who* won…

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3. Trump is brilliant. This is truly the art of the deal.

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4. Really brilliant. Your dear leader killed 200 school girls, had to ease sanctions against Iran and Russia therby helping both of those wonderfuls regimes, killed some old Iranian mullahs who were replaced by younger Iranian mullahs, which is fantastic prograss, he showed Iran how much leverage they have by stopping traffic through the strait of Hormuz and did not manage to end the nuclear program. And now he agreed to a ceasefire which gives him absolutely nothing that he did not have before he started that idiotic war. But this is a fantastic win, yes, you must be tired, or maybe already deeply asleep from all this winning.

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   1. \\ killed some old Iranian mullahs who were replaced by younger Iranian mullahs

      That’s untrue. (SB, is it you?)

      (Clarissa, see the original quote in Russian below.)

      A change of power has occurred in Iran. In fact, the transition took place amidst war and with the direct participation of the United States and Israel, which created the conditions for the military and political wings of the IRGC to seize power in Iran. The Islamic Republic has not collapsed, but is now led by a collective, more pragmatic (without a strong religious bias), yet in some ways more draconian leadership. Regardless of the fate of Mojtaba Khamenei, the IRGC has a real opportunity to retain power and begin reshaping the system to suit its own needs, weakening the clergy and Western-oriented reformers.

      The original:

      В Иране произошла смена власти. По факту, транзит состоялся в условиях войны и при прямом участии США и Израиля, создавшими условия для перехвата власти в Иране военным и политическим крылом КСИР. Исламская республика не рухнула, но теперь возглавляется коллективным, более прагматичным (без сильного религиозного крена), но в чем-то и более жестским руководством. Безотносительно судьбы Моджтабы Хаменеи, у КСИР появилась реальная возможность удержать власть, и начать перестраивать систему под себя, ослабляя духовенство и реформаторов, ориентированных на Запад.

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      1. This sounds fantastic. A more pragmatic, less fanatical leadership in Iran is the ticket. Imagine if “Western-oriented reformers” took power and tried to Western-reform 93 millions of very faithful Muslims. That’s civil war, fundamentalist militias, the destruction of the region, waves of migrants towards civilized countries.

         I don’t know if the posted quote is correct but I pray it is.

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5. \\ The Strait of Hormuz is reopened

   [in the official Iranian statement] “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” 
   …
   Claiming victory, Iran said the talks, which may last up to 15 days and can be extended by agreement, aim to finalize details of its 10-point proposal, which calls for “continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of enrichment, lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions.”

   Other key demands in the 10-point blueprint, offered through mediators in Pakistan, include US military withdrawal from the Middle East, an end to attacks on Iran and its allies, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a UN Security Council resolution making any deal binding.
   …
   Several hours after Trump’s initial announcement, Netanyahu’s office issued a statement welcoming the ceasefire, while stressing that it does not cover Lebanon despite Pakistani mediators’ claims to the contrary.

   [A senior Israeli official] said the two-week ceasefire allows both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, with the Islamic Republic to use the money for reconstruction. The strait, which is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran, is considered an international waterway and tolls have never been paid before to pass through it. There were also no “technical limitations” in place as Iran said there will now be prior to the war, when over 100 ships a day passed through as part of a decades-old traffic system.

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6. I don’t think he is right and believe Trump does want to end this war, but it’s an important point nevertheless:

   A detail that’s not being discussed.

   By concluding a temporary ceasefire, Trump has, in effect, “renewed” his own war timeline.

   According to the US Constitution, the US president cannot conduct military action without Congressional approval for more than two months. In the case of Trump and Iran, that deadline was set to expire on April 28 – very soon. Going to Congress for an “extension” would have been a serious test and political challenge for Trump, given the unpopularity of this military campaign within the US.

   However, now, if hostilities resume (which is highly likely), the two-month period during which Trump can make unilateral decisions on the conduct of the war will begin to run from scratch.

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7. Dr. Dina Lisnyansky [bold , mine]:

   In Iran, the IRGC sees this as a personal victory, while in the Arab world people are posting endless memes calling Trump a “clown” and a “loudmouth.”

   Everyone likes to think there is a clear outcome in a world where nothing is clear.

   The results of this war will show themselves soon.

   Meanwhile, the race to create a new alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is speeding up. No one wants to pay Iran or Oman fees for moving goods.

   Current situation:
   The Islamic Republic is weaker, its military has taken heavy damage, and its nuclear program – experts disagree, but even the most pessimistic views say it has been pushed back by years.

   If the US-Iran war does not restart, Israel will likely face more future conflicts with Iran. Iran’s nuclear program can only really be stopped by changing the regime. And as I said before, that would have been easier during the protests in December–January.

   Everything is still open, and many things are still possible, but a bit less than before.

   One more thing people don’t talk about much: Israel’s position in the Middle East is clearly stronger than in 2023. This war has strengthened it, which improves overall security potential in the region and for Israel itself.

   I hope she is not wrong in the last paragraph.

   Btw, Al Jazeera is banned in Israel, so I cannot access their website to check the truths of it reporting today that even after this ceasefire Iran continues its attacks:

   Al Jazeera from the Kuwaiti military: Since 8am this morning we have been facing a wave of Iranian attacks. 28 drones have been launched at us so far.

   Al Jazeera from the UAE Ministry of Interior: We are currently facing a missile attack.

   Saw report on this on Hebrew Israeli blog, whose owner knows better than me how to access forbidden websites.

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8. It’s true. Saw on ynetglobal. What is Iran thinking?

   The United Arab Emirates announced that air defense systems are operating to intercept missiles launched toward the country.
   (Reuters)

   The Kuwaiti military announced that “since 8:00 a.m., air defense forces have been dealing with an intensive wave of Iranian attacks and intercepted 28 drones directed against the country.” It was claimed that “military forces successfully intercepted a large number of drones. Some were directed against vital oil facilities and power stations in the south of the country. These attacks caused significant material damage to oil infrastructure facilities, power stations and water infrastructure.”

   Meanwhile, regarding Israel:

   Lebanese parliament member representing Hezbollah, Ibrahim al-Moussawi, claimed in an interview with the Lebanese Al-Jadeed channel that the ceasefire agreement in the war “includes Lebanon according to the text, and Iran insisted on this.” He emphasized that “if the Israeli enemy does not comply with the ceasefire, no one will do so, and there will be a response from the region and from Iran.” He also noted that “so far, no official announcement has been received from Hezbollah regarding a ceasefire.”

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9. \\ What is Iran thinking?

   Received the most probable answer imo in the first comments to a telegram post: Iran is applying pressure on US.

   “Perhaps they’re hinting that if Lebanon doesn’t join the ceasefire, then neither will the Gulf states. They probably want to push Hezbollah through.”

   “And they’ll push it through, the US will agree to everything. And also push through the Strait tax and the nuclear program.”

   From a blog in Russian of an Israeli Jew and IDF officer [Блогер, активист, экс-парламентский советник депутата Кнессета Алекса Кушнира, студент Еврейского университета, капитан ЦАХАЛа в зап.] :

   Meanwhile, in Chelyabinsk, Russia, the Faculty of Eurasian and Oriental Studies at Chelyabinsk State University is looking for Farsi-speaking personnel to serve in the unmanned systems forces [войск беспилотных систем]. They’re promising large salaries, bonuses, a special year-long contract, and service in UAV [БПЛА] units. Where exactly, against whom, and why—they don’t directly specify, of course. But it’s not hard to guess.

   In his view,

   I’d like to believe that this isn’t the final point, but a tactical move that will be followed by further action. Because, in my view, the goals that were supposed to be achieved have not yet been achieved. Iran is still not in a position where it is forced to make genuine concessions. Therefore, agreeing to terms favorable to it is premature and simply disadvantageous for us.
   …
   The same applies to Lebanon. There, there’s really no other option but to advance to the Litani and create a new security reality. At a minimum, the entire border infrastructure of terrorism, all those first lines of villages and strongholds that have been turning into a military zone under Israel’s nose for years, must be destroyed. The bare minimum is clearing the area up to the Litani and creating a full-fledged buffer zone that will prevent us from returning to the same point in a year or two.

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