The reason why the Trump administration failed to bring about a regime change in Iran is, as I said from the very beginning, that Iranians like their regime and are not interested in changing it. The only two ways towards a regime change are:
1. The people massively hate and despise the existing system (Ukraine 2013).
2. Somebody from the outside bombs the country into dust and rapes the entire population (Germany 1945).
The idea that the Iranians dislike their regime is a Western projection. In the two scenarios outlined above, regime change happens because the existing regime loses legitimacy in the eyes of the population. You cannot rule without the consent of the ruled. Once the majority of the population thinks that the regime is ridiculous and believes none of the regime’s ideology, the regime falls apart (USSR, 1991). You don’t even need to nudge it for it to fall apart. None of this happened in Iran.
There is an old saying: where there is nothing you can do, there should be nothing that you want. There is nothing we can do for Iranians or in Iran. It’s time to learn the lesson, close this chapter, and move on.
Clarissa's Blog 
“people massively hate and despise the existing system”
Not enough on its own. There also has to be a section/faction of the system ready to throw in its lot with the people.
Polish people massively hated and despised the existing system in 1981 and it didn’t help. In 1989, a section of the ruling class had also come were ready to help the people dismantle it.
Ukraine in 2013 had help from the ruling class (for lack of a better word).
Belarus in 2109 didn’t.
Not the only reason for the different outcomes but a big factor.
Iran hasn’t had that yet and Trump’s Non-excellent Iran Adventure probably solidified the system and guarenteed no change for the foreseeable future…
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I agree, but it starts with the people. It’s true that when the popular discontent is profound enough, there will arise a group really incapable of taking power in the name of this discontent. In Iran, there is no indication that even the initial stages of that process are reached. It saddens me that time and again the administration is failing to take into consideration cultural differences and the regional realities. The mentality that sees everybody as replaceable and identical to everybody else is on full view.
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Thousands of protesting Iranians (some say tens of thousands) were massacred on the streets in January. It was the latest escalation of a protest movement that comes back every few years, this after several decades in which people tried to change the system by electing reform candidates.
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In a country with a population of 90 million, a protest of several thousand or even several tens of thousands is absolutely nothing. In 2013, in Ukraine, a country with half of Iran’s population, millions went out on the streets and stayed for weeks in spite of the terrible winter cold. These are serious protests. What Iran had was a handful of pouty little brats feeling somewhat bored and acting out.
In 2012, there were protests in Russia. The country’s population is 140 million. The protests stood at around a quarter million. Compared to the country’s population, it’s a drop in the bucket. The protests were a complete and utter failure. As we can see now, the actual population of the country adores its regime and is extremely happy. Not as happy as people were during Stalinism, but still very happy. Yes, the Soviet population during Stalinism was mostly extremely happy. The USSR fell apart without even a nudge when that happiness turned to cynicism and contempt.
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And why would the people of Iran stop supporting the regime? What would be the precipitating event? Have they stopped being Muslim? Have they lost their faith in Allah, like the Soviet people lost faith in communism? Why would the population suddenly be unhappy?
As we keep saying, there needs to be some theory of the mind. What is the theory of the mind that explains 90 million fundamentalist Muslims suddenly wanting to embrace a Western-type secular democracy, or whatever it is that we expect them to embrace?
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The Iranian system is not just based on Islam, it is based on Khomeini’s particular innovations which put the ayatollahs in charge of everything, something which I think had no precedent in the history of Shia Islam. There is a clerical opposition to the system, not just a secular opposition. Some of the clerical critics even oppose the system because it is alienating the people from Islam. There was an Iranian movie years ago about some grifter who puts on a turban and hides his vices behind religiosity.
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“Have they stopped being Muslim? Have they lost their faith in Allah”
Seems to be going on….
About 50,000 mosques are inactive,
About half of still ‘active’ mosques have no prayer leader,
Some surveys indicate a majority of the population no longer self identifies as muslim, a stronger trend among younger people,
Despite legal restrictions, many young people eat in public during ramandan,
The major holiday is Nowruz, a pre-Islamic New Year celebration (around the vernal equinox, also celebrated in some post-soviet central asian states).
Merging church (or temple or mosque) and state is a very sure way to secularize people.
There’s more that I know of, but some concerns private communication.
Here’s a survey from 2020:
https://gamaan.org/2020/08/25/iranians-attitudes-toward-religion-a-2020-survey-report/
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As far as I know, modern Ukraine did not have torture, public executions, mass protest movements that regularly ended in massacres by regime militias, and foreign powers eager to liberate the country by bombing it.
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Obviously, Ukraine is not a medieval third-world pit of hell. That’s true. But places aren’t medieval third-world pits of hell by accident. They are what their inhabitants want them to be. These public executions, etc can only exist in Iran, especially for so long, because the population wants them.
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You missed the fact that many of the Iranian voices that we we hear are from Iranian exiles who oppose the current regime. Those exiles are predominantly urban professionals, as were the people protesting in Tehran last January.
On the other hand, it would be interesting to hear the views on rural Iranians. I suspect that most are happy with a strict religious government. One thing that could turn the rural population against the government is the ongoing water shortage. Many farmers now lack access to water for irrigation due to mismanagement of aquifers.
I can’t seem to log on
Raymond R
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Exactly. People who left the country are by definition unhappy with what’s going on in the country, which is why they left. But people who are there, outside of a tiny Westernized minority, I see zero reason to assume that they are unhappy.
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I’m just enjoying seeing Trump totally throw Israel under the bus. Bibi is Putin level bad leader:
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/2066835785467265526?s=20
What a stupid war. Iran will come out way stronger.
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I’m sorry but I have to share this:
https://x.com/i/status/2066287430378967222
The same result for the exact same reason. Nothing is getting learned.
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“the Trump administration failed to bring about a regime change in Iran”
Yes, it was a stupid idea carried out in a stupid way. My position is that the regime is very unpopular domestically but in addition to there being no governing faction ready to stand with the people… the people are underdeveloped politically.
It’s a combination of Poland in the 1980s (the system doesn’t work but people don’t know how to get out of it) and Latin America (those unhappy have no coherent political vision and are liable to lead the country into disaster if they are able to get power).
I think Trump, high on his own supply after the Maduro kidnapping, was susceptible to Israel bigging up the chance for spontaneous regime change…. and I note now that Israelis are turning on Trump… which I find hilarious
https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/2066986456044720449
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