The Donbass Update

Reader el asks:

May I ask you about the situation in Donbass? Is Russia still preventing Ukrainian army from taking back the territories? Does Ukraine want them back? I suppose a few Russia-supported Ukranian criminals-terrorists in Donbass won’t be a problem for Ukrainian army? What about the people still left there?

Have stopped reading about the issue for a long time and decided to ask you for an update since you follow it closely.

Yes, I follow. Although at times it’s next to intolerable.

Things are bad over there. The war is going on. There is about 25-35 shellings a day that the Ukrainian army receives. New supplies are coming from Russia constantly. The delivery of Russian supplies has intensified recently, which seems to indicate that the Russians are preparing for a new major attack. It looks like they are looking for two things before they start a new offensive: a spike in oil prices and an indication that the US won’t mind a whole lot.

The people are in a horrible state. The occupation authorities torture, rape and maim at will, just for fun. Recently, for instance, a little girl was gang-raped by a bunch of the military officials of the occupation force. She died of the injuries sustained during the rape. When her mother complained, they cut her head off and threw her on a garbage heap.

This happens all the time in Donbass. The only way that the Ukrainian army could retake the Donbass is at an enormous human cost. These are densely populated areas, and stepping up the hostilities would be brutal on the civilians.

Of course, after the Donbass is returned back to Ukraine, it will be a major headache to integrate back to normal life the population that has spent years in the complete lawlessness of a frontline area.

The Russians will withdraw when the oil prices drop under $30 per barrel. Or if Trump offers them some grand bargain, something really big.

So yeah, it’s not good.

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4 thoughts on “The Donbass Update”

  1. \ The only way that the Ukrainian army could retake the Donbass is at an enormous human cost.

    I still don’t understand the main reason for the Ukrainian army not going on a massive offensive for retaking Donbass. Is it because of the massive human cost of Ukrainian soldiers and because of the fear of the possibility of direct war with Russia?

    The few Ukrainian blogs I read didn’t seem to care much for the captive population and even blamed them for the situation which, as somebody from there, I found unfair. If even the Ukrainian army is afraid, how could I as a weaponless citizen be expected to succeed? Do people really care about the human cost on the civilian population?

    The story of the girl was horrible. Couldn’t something be done by publicly exposing the horrors and UN condemning Russia? Couldn’t America and EU do it? I am unsure what they are afraid of regarding Russian reaction.

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    1. Of course, there is resentment in the rest of Ukraine. Every time there is a report of another soldier killed at the front, people get angry. How could they not?

      My father organized a contest for Ukrainian writers, and immediately a fellow submitted his work and signed as him being from “the LNR.” How can.one not get angry with these people? Just decide already if you are from Ukraine or “the LNR” and stick to it. Idiots.

      But they are our idiots and we always knew they were this way. The Ukrainian army can’t just go in and start shooting at civilians because these are our civilians. They are still our people.

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    1. LNR is Luhansk People’s Republic

      [wiki] The Ukrainian government considers Lugansk People’s Republic a “temporarily occupied territory”, along with the Donetsk People Republic and the Republic of Crimea, and officially classifies the Republic as a terrorist organisation.

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