India and Pakistan

~ Clarissa

What is happening between India and Pakistan? Why is Pakistan off its rocker (more than usual) all of a sudden? Does anybody understand the situation and can share?

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Published by Clarissa

24 thoughts on “India and Pakistan”

  1. Two weeks ago there was a terrorist attack in Kashmir in which 27 tourists visiting from other parts of India were brutally massacred. The terrorists asked the victims their names to find out if they were Hindu or muslim, and even asked some men to strip down to check if they were circumcised. Upon confirmation that they were Hindu, they were shot down in front of their wives and children. This is the biggest terror attack on civilians in India in decades.

    This has been an ongoing pattern in Kashmir for decades, with terrorism support coming from Pakistan (and the local muslim Kashmiris, for whom Islam trumps nationality). Looks like India’s responded to it today by airstrikes on known terrorist camps in PoK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). So Indian aircraft haven’t violated official pakistani airspace. Yet.

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      2. There’s going to be so much misinformation floating around on the internet I’m trying not to follow battle operations in real time. We’ll only know what happened after it’s over.

        Here is CNN falling for social media hoaxes.

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    2. Pakistan was never what I’d call reasonable but lately they’ve become even crazier. Is somebody egging them on? China, maybe?

      Of course, there might be something internal that’s making them escalate.

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      1. That is astute! There are some rumblings that China could be indirectly involved in this attack.

        The terrorists, according to Indian probe agencies, were carrying Huawei satellite phone (banned in India) and ultra sophisticated, encrypted Chinese communication equipment known as ‘Ultra Set’ to avoid detection. These secure devices, according to ET, are customized by Chinese companies for the Pakistan army to bypass commercial mobile technologies and operate on radio waves linked to a control station across the border. “The messages are compressed and transmitted via Chinese satellites to a master server in Pakistan.”

        It is inconceivable that China was unaware of the fact that Kashmir-focussed terrorist outfits were using its cutting-edge gear to wreak havoc on India. It indicates China’s complicity in the terrorist act and presents a huge challenge for New Delhi which isn’t just fighting a Pakistan-sponsored insurgency in Kashmir – a subversive foreign policy objective of a sworn adversary – but also the entire might of the Chinese state.

        According to SIPRI data, China supplies 81% of Pakistan’s arms imports in the past five years, and it includes co-production of advanced JF-17 fighter jets, Hangor-class subs and selling of advanced systems such as long-range reconnaissance drones and Type 054A guided-missile frigates. In short, the state of Pakistan might be a bankrupt banana republic, but its military will never be short of cutting-edge resources and modern infrastructure to keep parity with India.

        This isn’t China’s ‘iron brotherhood’ or any such nonsense but strategic altruism to balance India and bog it down in the region.

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        1. That’s the direction I was thinking. In spite of the hype, China isn’t doing fantastic. India is overtaking it in the region, and China doesn’t have many ways to shorten the growing distance.

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          1. I wouldn’t go as far as saying that India is overtaking China but yeah, China’s not doing well right now.

            I’m a pessimist on India (too many internal divisions, and south-africanization of the country going full speed). But then, there’s a saying that India disappoints both optimists and pessimists. 🙂

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          2. Everyone knows China has problems. They’re still doing better than Russia, though and people still take them seriously.

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            1. Of course, I agree completely. China is a real country with a real economy. All the more shocking, then, that Xi would crawl to Putin’s stupid parade like an obedient little poodle.

              It’s a fascinating dynamic. Putin needs Xi. Xi doesn’t need Putin. Yet it’s Xi who acts as a vassal.

              Once again, Marx is proven wrong. It’s not about money.

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            2. Of course, I agree completely. China is a real country with a real economy. All the more shocking, then, that Xi would crawl to Putin’s stupid parade like an obedient little poodle.

              It’s a fascinating dynamic. Putin needs Xi. Xi doesn’t need Putin. Yet it’s Xi who acts as a vassal.

              Once again, Marx is proven wrong. It’s not about money.

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  2. Pakistani terrorists killed 26 people in Kashmir a few weeks ago. 25 Hindu tourists and a local Muslim who tried to defend them. I’ve heard they asked everyone their religion before killing them, though I can’t vouch to the accuracy of that. That’s about all I know.

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  3. It’s unlikely that the initial provocation (massacre of Indian tourists in Indian Kashmir) happened without Pakistani support (jihadis cross the border from Pakistani Kashmir). And it’s unlikely that Pakistan would stage a provocation in India, without consulting with China. And given the timing (same month as the tariffs), it’s probably that this is China using Pakistan to stab India in the back and distract it, just when American encirclement of China reaches a new level. Speculating further, I would say that China might have given India a chance to show its stance regarding America vs China – China and India are not quite mortal enemies, they engage in strategic cooperation on occasion.

    Apart from Pakistani earnest belief that Kashmir should not be part of India (since it is Muslim-majority, that being the original principle of the partition of British India), they think they can get away with provoking India because they have done it many times before. I’m sure they war-game everything, up to the strategic geopolitical level, before they give the go-ahead for such attacks.

    I feel like Imran Khan was the best hope for a more civilized Pakistan, but he’s still in jail.

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    1. I feel like Imran Khan was the best hope for a more civilized Pakistan, but he’s still in jail.

      Elections in Pakistan are meaningless. The country is ruled by its billionaire military generals. Imran Khan was installed by them undemocratically and removed by them undemocratically when he became inconvenient to them.

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    2. Very much in agreement with your analysis regarding the timing and China’s involvement, mitchellporter.

      Glad to see people who get the geopolitical situation so well on the blog.

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  4. An underlying issue is control of the headwaters of the Indus River in Kashmir, as they say in the western States of the USA: “Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting about”

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    1. I may be overly optimistic, and I am not claiming any knowledge at all of the real situation, but in my understanding India declared that the water treaty would be suspended, but then did nothing that actually breached the treaty.

      I hope that was a reminder to Pakistan of the consequences of pushing things towards outright war whilst retaining the ability to draw back from the breach. My understanding is also that the water rights matter much more to Pakistan than India, but also that any significant changes will require substantial civil engineering within India.

      However, my thoughts were before yesterday’s missile strikes.

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  5. Amazing.

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