Victory in Iran

The war with Iran has been going on for a week. As I predicted, there’s no evidence of Iranians wanting a regime change and supporting the removal of the ayatollahs. Iranians are defending their regime because they like it. And why shouldn’t they?

In Cuba, for example, even among the leadership there is a deep fatigue with the hammer and sickle. People are ready to let it go. I don’t call for an invasion of Cuba, God forbid. I’m simply pointing out that not everything is like everything else. In Cuba, the entirety of the population has prostituted itself (in a very literal way) to Western tourists. In Iran, on the other hand, people are motivated by their religion not to. Their religion is not mine but I deeply respect the right of any nation to practice the religion it considers true within its borders.

Trump has an immediate off-ramp in Iran. He needs to declare victory and withdraw troops. Victory is a fluid concept in a war where you are not defending your own sovereignty and territorial integrity. Victory is whatever you say. We need to say it already and forget the word “Iran” for the entirety of the next century.

49 thoughts on “Victory in Iran

  1. The regime in Iran has just killed somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 protestors and you think that’s a sign of popularity?

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    1. “just killed somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 protestors”

      Good point, the opposition is fragmented nad demoralized and nothing shores up support even for an unpopular regime than a hostile invasion. Especially when the opening move is killing a bunch of children at school…..

      On the other hand there’s not much evidence of regime support at street level…

      Part of Iranian society is as modern as western Europe, another big part is as primitive as Afghanistan and the leadership is mostly made up of the former larping as the latter.

      No matter what Iranian people think or want or whose idea it was…. the war was an incredibly stupid idea and it’s not going to end well for anyone.

      I don’t think Trump is some evil dictator but he does seem to have a kind of brain rot that’s often found among dictators (or any head of state that’s been in office too long).

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      1. What is it with Trump’s subservience to smug weasels like Putin and Bibi? I’m not buying into the stories that it’s about campaign donations. He’s not running for anything. He can piss at anybody who donated in the past because it’s in the past.

        I’m really not getting it. There’s got to be a reason why he lets these two shit in his plate constantly and he just eats it up and says thank you. Nobody has come up even with a remotely plausible explanation. As far as I can see, nobody is trying to find it.

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        1. “What is it with Trump’s subservience”

          My guess (not being cursed with ESP) would be some kind of hero worship… or ego compensation. You noted his fragile ego and I agree, people with strong self images don’t need/want people fawning over them and they don’t like yes men…. they tend to like the give and take of verbal tussles and being challenged.

          You don’t like casual use of the N word, but he strikes me (from a distance through media, so many caveats) as a vulnerable narcissist.

          Have you seen Envidiosa? Very funny/sad Argentine comedy series about a woman who reminds me a lot of Trump…

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        2. Clarissa trying and failing at this limited hangout. Yeah it’s just Trump and bibi. Just this particular relationship, if fixed, would totally solve our problems. Not that our entire fucking government is occupied by jewish interests. Just trump and bibi kissing in a tree.

          Nice try.

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            1. Ill-posed question, as we say in the biz. You see our congress, our media, and our president fall over backwards to support israel at all costs. Lindsay graham literally lives in israel. There is NO other country that enjoys this level of support. And if you think so, you’re divorced from reality. That popular tweet about how it is so hard to argue with leftists because they just pretend to not understand things comes to mind. I’m not going to play this silly game with you, sorry.

              ZOG is a “theory” like gravity is a theory.

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        3. If you go back to Trump’s political views in the mid-to-late 1980s, he looked to be in favor of making peace with Russia, while preparing for commercial war against Japan. Things were still the same when he finally ran in 2016, except that China had replaced Japan as the main commercial rival. I think he views the problems with Russia as created by Democrats and NATO, and hopes to pull Russia away from China.

          As far as Netanyahu is concerned, Trump was also always very pro-Israel, and once he was in office, Israel looked to be the one country outside the western hemisphere that he really cared about. Whether his long acquaintance with Epstein indicates some kind of covert entanglement, I couldn’t say…

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    2. My friend. When in 2013 in Ukraine the authorities killed 100 protesters, millions of Ukrainians went out into the streets and refused to leave for months. In winter. In freezing temperatures. One hundred protesters. And the regime ended.

      If you are right and the regime in Iran killed 30,000 protesters, what does it mean that the rest of the 93,000,000 population is so indifferent to those deaths? Don’t you see that what you are saying proves my point?

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      1. In Ukraine, the protesters had allies in the Rada, I think? And Yanukovych resorted to a government of national unity the next day.

        In Iran, the January protesters demonstrated all across the country, in very large numbers, but they had no allies inside the system, and the protests were crushed by force.

        As I mentioned here

        https://clarissasblog.com/2026/03/01/the-iran-war/#comment-662630

        Iran has a long history of trying to reform the system. You could even trace it back to 1906 when they made their first parliament (only to have Russian-led special forces besiege it). They have a parliament now, but it’s a managed democracy where everyone has to endorse the Islamic guardian system (Khamenei was the guardian).

        To understand the guardian system, maybe imagine a society of perpetual judicial activism, in which the judges are also priests in the state religion, and have bearded holy militias everywhere. I’d guess the system is held up by a mix of believers and opportunists – the latter being the kind of people who, in Afghanistan, grew their beards when the Taliban took over, and shaved them when the Taliban were overthrown.

        The system was brought in, in a national wave of apocalyptic fervor that kicked out the Shah, through one of the very first alliances between leftists and Islamists (and as you might expect, the Islamists completely outwitted the leftists). But (at least according to Marjane Satrapi’s Persepolis, which I just read), for ordinary people, the fervor was completely gone after the 1980s war with Iraq – Iraq started the war in 1980, proposed a ceasefire in 1982, but Khomeini turned it down and attempted regime change in Iraq, which led to hundreds of thousands more dead. After the war, Iran spent a generation rebuilding, and you saw the return of culture and ordinary life; but after Saddam Hussein really did fall in the 2000s, the militants around Khamenei revived their dream of a region-wide Islamic revolution extending all the way to Israel, and that eventually led us to October 7 and the current war against Trump and Netanyahu.

        So that’s the context in which Iranians who just want a normal life in a normal country, have tried to pursue their politics.

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        1. ” they had no allies inside the system”

          Yeah, no anti-government/system movement can really succeed unless there are elements in the govening system that realize the current system is broken and/or is ready to stand with the people.

          Poland in 1981 didn’t really have that, by 1988 or so it did, so that when Gorbachev ruled out force to keep the eastern bloc together it became possible for Solidarity leaders and some elements of the government to negotiate their way out of that system.

          Iran didn’t have that and now…. probably won’t for a long time…

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        2. Normal means different things to different people. My contention is that Iranians are very happy with fundamentalism. Which is perfectly fine. They should be left in peace to do exactly that. We look as abnormal to them as they look to us. My position is that nobody should force other people in other countries to embrace their form of normalcy.

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          1. Kid, do you actually know any Persians?

            Canada supposedly has ~ 300,000, so you probably have millions. The ones that I know are intelligent, and very well-educated professionals — truly refugees that had to flee their homeland. Most have developed families here, but many still have extended family there. They sure as hell are not “very happy with fundamentalism.” I am sure many, probably most, were indeed happily dancing when they heard of Khamenei’s passing.

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            1. They are left and have no interest in coming back. It’s bizarre to try to engineer in Iran a reality that is pleasing to the people who refuse to live in Iran.

              This is why I never expressed any opinions on the internal politics of Ukraine. I forfeited my right to have an opinion when I left. The same is true for the Iranians who left.

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              1. Well, I haven’t said much about Iran because few appear to have any solid idea of what proportion of the population is actually fundamentalist Shiite.

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              2. This guy (son of Iranian expatriates who has been back and forth to Iran) says things that are plausible. It might be a bit long-winded for people who want to dive into the political content; that starts after 10:00 or so.

                Some moments of interest:

                32:00 He describes a conversation with a Ukrainian friend from high school, who explained (years later, after the war began) that Ukrainians always expected they might have to fight a war to leave the Russian sphere of influence once and for all. Mr Sharghzadeh says that in the same way, Iranians knew that the Islamic Republic had to fall at some point, and that it would probably happen violently.

                Something that many non-Muslim westerners do not understand, is that most Muslims do not want to live under “political Islam”, i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood (in the Sunni world) or the Islamic revolution (in the Shia world), and the Iranians have been living under it longer than anyone else.

                However, this is different from wanting foreigners to overthrow the government for you. There has been a lot of that in the Muslim world since 9/11, and his assessment is that in the first few years there may be some excitement that the old regime is gone, but in the longer run it tends to be bad for a country. So his fear is that rather than transition to a better regime, Iran the country will simply shatter as a result of this war.

                From 18:38 forwards, he talks a bit about how part of the Iranian diaspora came to support Israeli-American war against Iran. I won’t summarize all the details, but he talks about how the exiled son of the Shah went from opposing war to supporting it, and some of the beliefs among the diaspora that go along with supporting the war. Meanwhile the average Iranian still in the country is mostly adopting a survivalist attitude, similar to the final days of the 1980s war with Iraq, when Saddam Hussein was raining missiles on Tehran.

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    1. This, and not the ayatollahs, is what we should be fighting. Ayatollahs are at home. They should do whatever. Just like we shouldn’t tolerate this in our home.

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  2. “Just like we shouldn’t tolerate this in our home.”

    Suicidal empathy, stubbornly ignoring the hard learned lessons in the Nordic countries, too many in the West still resist the idea that we must repatriate immigrants that oppose our belief systems.

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  3. Trump is a deranged lunatic disconnected from all reality. He needs to be removed from office.

    Also lol at the 300000 protesters killed. Another insane ZOG lie.

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    1. “deranged lunatic”

      Yeah, I’m on the record as saying the invasion was stupid (extraordinarily diplomatic language) but this Lord Bebo has repeated and dissiminated so many russian lies that he could post that the sun rises in the East and would need a second opinion.

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      1. Cry more.

        “Official White House Rapid Response account” good enough for you?

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        1. “Cry more”

          You just wanna let that sit there?

          twitter is full of mis/dis-information now, I don’t believe anything until it’s verified from multiple angles

          and I’m able to avoid citing russian shills in the process.

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          1. I’m looking for an explanation of why Trump would simultaneously attack Iran and assist Russia in attacking US troops in Iran. If you see anybody address it anywhere, please link. I think a lot of insight can be gained from figuring it out. People are palpating the issue from different sides but nobody is talking about both at once.

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            1. “I’m looking for an explanation”

              Surkov doctrine? Flood the zone with insane and contradictory evidence to make people seem crazy and/or convince people the truth is not knowable?

              The usual suspects are just flooding twitter with insane crap….

              According to one tweet (FYI I have no idea if it’s true) russian social media is full of AI slop about energy and food shortages in Germany and Tel Aviv in flames (like most of the city) etc…

              At the beginning of the russian invasion it was actually easier to navigate but now… all slop all the time.

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              1. True. And it doesn’t help that many people can’t be bothered to watch the clips they repost. I’ve seen several clips this weekend with the tag “Trump said…” accompanying a video in which Trump says nothing of the kind. These are 15-second videos. Why trust the caption if you can watch for yourself?

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  4. We need to say it already and forget the word “Iran” for the entirety of the next century.

    The jews that control him won’t let that happen.

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    1. Dear Stringer Bell – just out of curiosity – I wonder what kind of politics you affirm. Would you say one of Tucker, Candace, or Nick Fuentes is closest to your positive views? Or maybe someone else?

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      1. If I had to choose one of the three you mentioned, probably Fuentes. I also like Tucker. Candace is not for me but I like that she’s around. From a twitter comment:

        Candace Owens is doing great work. None of her stuff is for me and if you’re a psychologically healthy white man its not a good place for information, but she goes out of her way to teach minorities that Jews are their enemy rather than whites. Something few blacks do because it is unprofitable and gets you cancelled.

        Compare that to Candace Owens’ detractors, scum like Jeremy Boreing, Tim Pool, even enemy operatives in Europe like Keith Woods. They tell their audiences that white women and white boomers are responsible for what Jews are doing. They know they are lying and don’t care.

        Owens is also lying, but at least her self promotion and click farming is objectively eroding Jew power and the Kosher right. Let Candy cook.

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  5. In case any retard over here still thinks it’s about “freedom” for Iranians.

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  6. A few things, that I’m not sure the mainstream media covered.

    One of the podcasts I watch is done by ex-military guys, a mix of special forces, intel, with guests from other branches. These guys were all mid level ranks or lower upper level ranks. Basically not privates or corporals.

    Three of the things that were mentioned that I feel are quite important and that isn’t likely to be mentioned in the news are these.

    First the Strait of Hormuz, or however its spelled. A massive percentage of the worlds oil gets shipped out of there, and while the US and Europe have other supplies, our own for us, and Russia for Europe, we do still use quite of lot of that. For India and Japan however this is their main supply. For Japan something above 70% of all their oil comes from that route, and 95% of all their oil from the middle east.

    If that stays shut for a month, we will start to see major problems arise. Japan is our ally, so we will be pressured to do something to keep it from collapsing. India is not an ally, but they aren’t an enemy, this might cause that to change.

    Second ammo levels. Ships require special ports to reload their missile bays. For that sector of the world, as in the Med and Indian Ocean, the main naval base for the US is behind the strait. The US navy after firing most of their ammo (missiles only,) moved the navy away from that area. The navy has to move to other bases to reload, and the turn around time will be days if not weeks.

    Additionally it was indicated that Iran has something close to 80K missiles stashed away in the mountains. Best guess estimate for US weapon systems in the area. The US has about 2500 or so interceptor missiles. I might have that number wrong, but it was some absurdly low number. Those missiles (US) are extremely expensive, 1 or more million a piece, plus requires parts from China. (I seem to recall mentioning sometime last year how having external supply lines for munitions was a bad idea.) The Iranian missiles are relatively cheap, roughly 100K or so apiece.

    Thirdly it was mentioned that Iran was firing into Saudi Arabia. What wasn’t mentioned in the news was the geography of the territory. Saudi Arabia is mostly flat. Iran is mostly mountainous. Basically Iran can fire missiles and rockets at practically undefendable targets while their own launchers can be pulled back and hidden inside mountain forts. Its the equivalent of archers on a castle’s battlements shooting arrows at archers on open ground below, but the archers below have no barricades or men with shields to keep them from getting hit.

    Basically the longer this goes on, the worse things will be for Saudi Arabia, and if they get too damaged, the oil supply for the world will be taking a massive hit for years. So in my estimation, you can expect them to bow out soon, and or expect the price of everything to skyrocket, likely before the end of the year.

    • – W

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  7. Iran’s Foreign Minister is doing a significantly better job of messaging on this war than Trump. Araghchi is making devastating points and leaving US News anchors sputtering. Meanwhile everyone is laughing and/or cringing at the manic narcissistic meltdown Trump is going through.

    I’m sure Bari Weiss at CBS is on it.

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      1. Someone on twitter wrote Trump is the Baghdad Bob of this war and I can’t stop laughing about it.

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    1. You know, I do try not to hate people. Their actions certainly, but ever since the Lord helped calm my rage and anger many, many years ago, I try my best to not let it get the better of me.

      Lindsay Graham tests my patience like no other. I often get irritated at the politicians on the left who do and promote abominations, but as disgusted as I am by that, I understand that they are blinded to the truth, and so don’t really understand the evil they are spewing. (In that, I mean in the spiritual sense, obviously they understand the physical actions they take and promote.)

      Graham on the other hand should know better. He proclaims himself to be a Christian, and yet the man has never met a war he did not want to drag us into. Frankly if Warhammer 40K was not a series of books and games but reality, I fully expect he would have started shouting “blood for the blood god, skulls for the skull throne.” Likely trying to attack everyone nearby.

      How he was ever elected I will never know, and how he remains in office is even more bizarre to me. Though to be fair, I though the same of John McCain as well.

      Now that being said, I completely agree Stringer Bell, Trump really does come off as the American version of Baghdad Bob. And I just about burst out laughing the second I read that.

      • – W

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      1. Graham is an alcoholic, and I think he’s one of those nasty, rageful drunks. Why his inebriated freakouts have such an effect on our politics is another issue. But yes, absolutely disgraceful from every angle.

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  8. Also I like how “never again” is never a call for peace, but a call for more war, more genocide, more ethnic cleansing, more misery.

    “Allow me to kill everyone I don’t like because Never Again.”

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      1. “beyond angry and upset about it”

        Having the Budapest memorandum trashed in their faces wasn’t enough… Ukrainians still think if they act like good allies then the US will do so in return…

        So misguided…

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        1. I know. It’s so frustrating. This strategy is clearly not working. When will it be time to drop it already?

          Very frustrating. But not remotely as frustrating as Trump’s incomprehensible subservience to Russia.

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  10. Jews so bloodthirsty even lindsay graham is asking them to stop.

    “In that regard, please be cautious about what targets you select.”

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