Clarissa and Allan Lichtman Predict That Obama Will Win in 2012

Allan Lichtman, the scholar who correctly predicted the results of the last 7 presidential elections, believes that Obama will win in 2012 no matter who the Republican nominee is:

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House. […] Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Let’s see if Lichtman and I have it right. I’ve been saying that Obama will win for quite a while now.

21 thoughts on “Clarissa and Allan Lichtman Predict That Obama Will Win in 2012

  1. I sure hope you guys are right because, except for Huntsman (who hasn’t a chance), the Republican candidates are downright scary. But are his coattails long enough to change the complexion of Congress?


    1. Since I’m in a predicting mood 🙂 , I think that this is not likely to happen. I have a feeling that the Congress might become a bit more Republican after the next elections.


    1. I agree that Perry is the only serious candidate the Republicans have right now. Serious not from my point of view, of course, but one whom voters of that party might see as serious. And the fact that he’s from Texas weighs heavily in his favor (again, not in my eyes). Still, it’s not enough, in my opinion, to make him overcome the incumbency and the fact that his party has been doing so badly in Congress.


              1. A more small-state policy that could hurt more the Mediocrats than the other pro-big-government pro-terrorist pro-police repressive CON-SERV-HATERS Repubenrons candidates.

                For example, he’s against the drug war and the terrorist wars in Afghanistan (fair enough, he vote for in a first glance, stupidly, but he regrets it), in Libya and in Irak. I’m not a Ron Paul fan and he’s not a libertarian (he’s more a LIE-bert-ARYAN), but he’s not as faggot than the other Repubenrons candidates.


        1. Ron Paul doesn’t have a chance. How many times has that man run for President now? I’ve lost count. (joking) He’s got a fan base, for sure, but no one else takes him seriously.


      1. Americans will be better (yeah, better is a too strong term, I admit) served with him with Mediocrats in charge in Senate and in Congress than the 2008-2010 mediocrat fiasco and the Bush 2000-2008 fiasco.


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