Clarissa and Allan Lichtman Predict That Obama Will Win in 2012

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Clarissa

August 31, 2011

Allan Lichtman, the scholar who correctly predicted the results of the last 7 presidential elections, believes that Obama will win in 2012 no matter who the Republican nominee is:

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House. […] Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Let’s see if Lichtman and I have it right. I’ve been saying that Obama will win for quite a while now.

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21 responses to “Clarissa and Allan Lichtman Predict That Obama Will Win in 2012”

Diego

August 31, 2011

I sure hope you guys are right because, except for Huntsman (who hasn’t a chance), the Republican candidates are downright scary. But are his coattails long enough to change the complexion of Congress?

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1. bloggerclarissa
  
  August 31, 2011
  
  Since I’m in a predicting mood 🙂 , I think that this is not likely to happen. I have a feeling that the Congress might become a bit more Republican after the next elections.
  
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  1. David Gendron
    
    August 31, 2011
    
    I agree, even if I think Mediocrats will made some recovery relative to 2010.
    
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N G

August 31, 2011

This is an interesting viewpoint. Here is the opposing opinion.

http://now.dartmouth.edu/2011/08/obamas-re-election-is-at-risk-gallup-editor-in-chief-tells-dartmouth-audience/

Personally I see a President Perry with a female vice-president of which I can see a number of possibilities.

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1. bloggerclarissa
  
  August 31, 2011
  
  I agree that Perry is the only serious candidate the Republicans have right now. Serious not from my point of view, of course, but one whom voters of that party might see as serious. And the fact that he’s from Texas weighs heavily in his favor (again, not in my eyes). Still, it’s not enough, in my opinion, to make him overcome the incumbency and the fact that his party has been doing so badly in Congress.
  
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  1. David Gendron
    
    August 31, 2011
    
    Repubenrons should choose Ron Paul, but Repuberons establishement prefers Uncle Tom Osama to him.
    
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    1. bloggerclarissa
      
      August 31, 2011
      
      Ron Paul is a religious fanatic. There is no difference between him and Perry or him and Sarah Palin.
      
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      1. David Gendron
        
        August 31, 2011
        
        I disagree with that (and I read your post about it), even if he’s too religious for me. Why Repubenrons establishement prefers Uncle Tom Osama to him?
        
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        bloggerclarissa
        
        August 31, 2011
        
        I wouldn’t say they prefer Obama at all. They just can’t find anybody who’d be able to run against him successfully.
        
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        David Gendron
        
        August 31, 2011
        
        They don’t want Ron Paul for President, even if would have a real chance, because this would the end of the Repubenrons like we know now.
        
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        bloggerclarissa
        
        August 31, 2011
        
        Not at all. What does he have to offer that every other Republican doesn’t?
        
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        David Gendron
        
        August 31, 2011
        
        A more small-state policy that could hurt more the Mediocrats than the other pro-big-government pro-terrorist pro-police repressive CON-SERV-HATERS Repubenrons candidates.
        
        For example, he’s against the drug war and the terrorist wars in Afghanistan (fair enough, he vote for in a first glance, stupidly, but he regrets it), in Libya and in Irak. I’m not a Ron Paul fan and he’s not a libertarian (he’s more a LIE-bert-ARYAN), but he’s not as faggot than the other Repubenrons candidates.
        
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    2. Brittany-Ann
      
      August 31, 2011
      
      Ron Paul doesn’t have a chance. How many times has that man run for President now? I’ve lost count. (joking) He’s got a fan base, for sure, but no one else takes him seriously.
      
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David Gendron

August 31, 2011

I made the same prediction, and I stick with it.

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David Gendron

August 31, 2011

The dream scenario is a totally lame duck (Congress and Senate Mediocrat) Ron Paul for president!

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1. bloggerclarissa
  
  August 31, 2011
  
  Why is it a dream scenario?
  
  Let’s dream big and imagine a person with at least half a brain running.
  
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  1. David Gendron
    
    August 31, 2011
    
    Like Rick Perry! 😉
    
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  2. David Gendron
    
    August 31, 2011
    
    Americans will be better (yeah, better is a too strong term, I admit) served with him with Mediocrats in charge in Senate and in Congress than the 2008-2010 mediocrat fiasco and the Bush 2000-2008 fiasco.
    
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    1. David Gendron
      
      August 31, 2011
      
      and even the OSama-Tea-Party 2010-2012 fiasco.
      
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    2. bloggerclarissa
      
      August 31, 2011
      
      I think this is a popular myth, yet myth nonetheless.
      
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      1. David Gendron
        
        August 31, 2011
        
        What’s the myth?
        
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