I just read a really phenomenal article on the Ukraine crisis and, uncharacteristically, it is even written in English. The author’s name is Lidia Shevtsova. I have no idea who she is but she really knows what she is talking about.
In case you are ideologically opposed to reading anything but Clarissa’s Blog, here are some highlights. First of all, Shevtsova dispels the myth that Putin has suddenly gone insane and explains who promotes this myth and why:
I suspect that all the explanations aiming at provoking doubt as to Putin’s rationality and inadequacy have their origins in something other than dispassionate analysis. If Putin just suddenly lost his mind, this lets the political and expert community off the hook for failing to alert us to what was coming. If the West is dealing with an unexpected deviation from the norm, this means that the previous policy toward Russia was essentially correct. The theory of Putin’s “insanity” or “irrationality” would save so many analytical reputations.
Shevtsova is right. If people act in ways you didn’t expect, it makes more sense to analyze your own expectations than diagnose them to make yourself feel better. And among the many people who refuse to accept what is really happening in Russia and Ukraine, Germans take pride of place (and they are the most active in advancing the theory of Putin’s insanity):
200 German intellectuals signed a letter addressed to Vladimir Putin expressing “their understanding of the Russian reaction to the Ukrainian developments” and wishing him “strength, resilience, and luck.” The letter can only give further ammunition to the critics of the West who argue that the liberals democracies have forgotten their principles.
Shevtsova does not believe we are witnessing the revival of the Cold War. No, she says, what Putin is doing is a lot worse:
We are witnessing a much more complex phenomenon than the return of the Cold War. Vladimir Putin isn’t just attempting to dismantle the post-Cold War settlement; he is undermining the remaining elements of the post-Yalta order. This order was devised by the winners of World War II to prevent certain kinds of wars from happening again (specifically, to dismantle any potential justification for annexations or violations of another country’s borders). Putin is trying to assert his right to interpret the global rules of the game in such a way that Russia may violate them with impunity. The Cold War, by contrast, was marked by both sides’ adherence to the rules.
This entire time I believed this was the Cold War coming back but Shevtsova’s analysis makes too much sense for me to disagree. Here is the ultimate goal of Putin’s actions, she says:
The Soviet Union offered communist ideology to the world; Vladimir Putin offers the world something much more exciting than ideology: his services as interpreter of basic legal principles like legitimacy, legality, self-determination, and territorial integrity.
And here is the strategy Putin will employ to get to his goal:
Putin apparently hopes that the West will eventually be ready to grasp at his outstretched hand and embark on a new reset. The West is expected to legitimate Putin’s status quo, which will not in any case bind the Russian leader in any way. On the contrary: International acceptance of the new status quo will give Putin carte blanche to violate it again.
This whole situation has demonstrated something really crucial to the world:
We have to give Vladimir Putin credit for doing something positive. He has swept the cobwebs off the current world order. However, we still don’t know whether this has been enough to shock the liberal democracies into beginning the process of rethinking things. Maybe another shock is in order…
Brilliant article, people, the best I read on the crisis anywhere.
Clarissa's Blog 
Decent article indeed, but still too rooted in “Western” paradigms.
The key is here: “To that end, Russia seeks to lay claim to the right to interpret the rules of the game however it sees fit. It isn’t interested merely playing the role of global spoiler. The Kremlin wants to play the part of the Arbitrator” – yes, it wants to be admitted to the “real club”, the Arbitrator Club (which is different from G8 membership). It believes that West has usurped the role of the Arbitrator, and may be quite successful selling this position to the world.
And now it get’s interesting – I am not a fan of Putin since my country may become a tool with which Putin will make his point, but is there any rational explanation for why the West is the only Arbitrator? I mean the explanation other than “we are the West and therefore it is in our interests to be the only Arbitrator”? Is Putin really doing things others have not done before? I mean the spirit of actions, not necessarily the details. Is it really the most important detail – do you permanently annex part of some country, or do you temporarily occupy a country and cause never-ending civil war which kills ten times more people than the bloody dictator you deposed?
Does Putin do his thing primarily to distract Russian people from the problems within his system – most probably yes. But why has he chosen this particular distraction? Didn’t he do that because he knows it is appealing to his people? And people in some other countries wishing to stick it to the West? As tempting as it might be to write this off as just appealing to some lowest imperial or nationalist instincts, the West would be much better off if we look at it from other viewpoint – are there any partial truths behind Russia’s desire to reformat the world order? What things has the West done, out of stupidity or calculated, that now diminish West’s opportunities to take moral high ground? I am not advocating for moral relativism here, of the worst possible variety (if West has done it, one should allow Putin do it), I am for higher ethical standards for everyone. And I hope suppression of Putin without some critical self-analysis will not be the only outcome.
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A post in Russian, in which c_m compares the situation of Russian speaking Ukrainians to Israeli Arabs (our citizens). I think you will disagree with his analysis of Ukrainians, but he is right about our Arab population.
http://cat-mucius.livejournal.com/38955.html?view=367147#t367147
Wanted to ask how (if at all) you see the future of Israeli Arabs. I don’t mean Gaza or Palestinian autonomy, but Israeli citizens. Will Israel make some steps towards them in its ideology, or will they be forced to leave the country in the end? I don’t see any signs of the former yet.
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I don’t think the current situation can continue forever. Israeli Arabs do feel discrimination and inability to fulfill their national desires to live in their own country. And Jewish citizens, like me, are afraid to come close to Arab villiages inside our own country (behind all green/yellow/whatever lines, not settlements). Or walk on a beach at night, if there are only numerous Arab families there, which happened to me during a visit to Dead Sea.
When Abu-Mazen demanded the release of terrorists, who are Israeli citizens, during the last exchange deal, he presented our citizens and Palestinians, who demand a country, as one whole. As a result, “Jewish Home Chairman Naftali Bennett publishes open letter to Israeli Arabs saying deal would turn them into second-class citizens.”
“A deal like this damages your drive for equal rights. After all, if ‘Abu Mazen [Abbas – ed.] will arrange it for you,’ then Jewish Israelis will say, ‘let him arrange everything for you,’ then.”
“We – the Israeli government, investors, and the public – believe in the need to incorporate [Israeli Arabs] into society, but a deal like this comes and says that the public, as well as Mahmoud Abbas, makes this sector a part of the Palestinian Authority by default,” he noted. “Would you like for fellow citizens, while you study at Tel Aviv or Haifa Universities, to look at you as representatives of a foreign organization, who have suddenly gained blue [Israeli] ID cards and now demand to be released from Israeli society? I don’t agree with that, and whoever does, does not do so for your benefit, but to see you lose your legitimacy in Israel.”
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/179564#.U02WSBl_tPk
All I have written, including Dead Sea case, is true and not a product of brainwashing and stupid fears. I just don’t see any good long term solution.
The ideal picture in my mind is two first world states – all Arab and all Jewish – as wonderful neighbors. Don’t believe our Arab citizens will be truly happy w/o their own state. How to achieve this is another question.
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Forgot to mention that Abbas doesn’t intend to give citizenship in the future Palestinian state to Israeli Arabs or to Arabs from UN refugee camps. But is glad to use them now.
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The Partition of India in 1947 attempted to separate the Hindus and the Muslims into 2 separate states. Do you know that story? Huge numbers of people were just moved from one area to another. Massive loss of life, seething resentments until now. I’m not sure that’s such an amazing solution.
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When you were on the beach, what did you fear? Im not doubting your experience, of course. I’m just wondering if you feared sexual aggression or harassment, rudeness, anti-Semitism, attack for being an Israeli Jew?
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Once again, if you are afraid, you are afraid. These are not stupid fears. As Solomon Mihoels said, intuition is a shortened leap of intellect. If you perceive danger, just don’t go there.
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I don’t see any good solutions here. Long term, partition may be the least evil. Reminded of:
Partition ~ WH Auden
Unbiased at least he was when he arrived on his mission,
Having never set eyes on the land he was called to partition
Between two peoples fanatically at odds,
With their different diets and incompatible gods.
“Time,” they had briefed him in London, “is short. It’s too late
For mutual reconciliation or rational debate:
The only solution now lies in separation.
The Viceroy thinks, as you will see from his letter,
That the less you are seen in his company the better,
So we’ve arranged to provide you with other accommodation.
We can give you four judges, two Moslem and two Hindu,
To consult with, but the final decision must rest with you.”
Shut up in a lonely mansion, with police night and day
Patrolling the gardens to keep the assassins away,
He got down to work, to the task of settling the fate
Of millions. The maps at his disposal were out of date
And the Census Returns almost certainly incorrect,
But there was no time to check them, no time to inspect
Contested areas. The weather was frightfully hot,
And a bout of dysentery kept him constantly on the trot,
But in seven weeks it was done, the frontiers decided,
A continent for better or worse divided.
The next day he sailed for England, where he could quickly forget
The case, as a good lawyer must. Return he would not,
Afraid, as he told his Club, that he might get shot.
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I ask what you predict will happen, not whether it’s bad. Besides, here everything is much smaller than in India. Less land, less people, and exchange of land could lessen the number of people forced to move significantly.
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I only make a prognosis when I’m completely sure but here I’m not. I haven’t been in the region so I can’t have a good opinion. My sister was considering going to Israel on a right-of-return trip but I’m not sure if she’ll go. I’d definitely love to go. She says it’s a very propagandistic trip, with the very first event being a visit from wounded Israeli soldiers. But I’d want such a trip. The propaganda, the soldiers. I’d like to see it all. This is my new goal: I want to visit Israel.
Maybe you and I can hang out. 😉
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Do visit! It would be wonderful, and I would love to read your reactions.
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// When you were on the beach, what did you fear?
Inside my mind, something like being taken somewhere, raped and then murdered. Nothing as insignificant as rudeness. I am sure, that time nothing would happen since there were too many people there.
But, in general, as a Jew, I would fear to meet several Arabs in an isolated place. There are terrorist attacks, including by Israeli Arabs, and you hear from time to time about attempts to kidnap both soldiers and civilians from streets. I can’t know in advance who is a terrorist and who isn’t.
This is from a right wing paper, but I don’t think they make everything up:
http://www.israeltoday.co.il/NewsItem/tabid/178/nid/23529/Default.aspx?article=related_stories
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It’s not insignificant to want to avoid unpleasant situations. When I traveled to Cuba for the first time, I’d stay in my hotel room for days, hungry and drinking water from the tap just to avoid people staring at me, making nasty remarks, trying to touch me or hassle me. There was a police officer stationed every 100 yards, so I didn’t fear any violence. But the way people interacted was driving me nuts.
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Liliya Shevtsova (not Lidya) is a famous Russian politologist. I remember seeing her on Soviet TV back in the late 1980s, at the beginning of the Perestroika. She is absolutely phenomenal. Such people are very rare nowadays in Russia: they are being exterminated or exiled the way their predecessors were in the 1920s by the Bolsheviks. A critical mass of their influence would be disastrous for Putin and the gang.
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How come I didn’t know her, I wonder.
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I think she is wrong in her analysis of the situation and how seriously damaged Russia’s credibility is.
This whole situation with Ukraine will reberberate for years if not decades to come. The Russian economy is starting to feel the effects of Putin’s actions and it will only get worse. Nobody believes the Russian lies, Europe is going to do anything it can to wean itself off of Russian gas and oil, and neighboring countries will do anything they can to integrate their militaries into NATO as a form of self-defense. Russia is also diplomatically isolated on all fronts and will continue to isolate itself the more it pushes into Ukraine. Therefore, I simply don’t see them having any sort of ability or power to do what Ms. Shevtsova describes.
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I want you to be right, but the whole part about Russia’s loss of credibility and isolation doesn’t matter. This is where Russians find strength. This is their entire national identity and has been for years.
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Clarissa, it’s all fun and games for Putin while the economy is in fairly good shape. But just wait until the economy starts to tank and people start to feel the full effects of sanctions and loss of credibility abroad. He will not be very popular then, I can assure you of that.
Please take a look at the following article:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27031630#TWEET1101640
This is just the very beginning. The current sactions are just a slap on the wrist, but the upcoming sanctions will be full body blows that will have much more damaging effects.
On the long term, I think the worst damage that Putin has done to Russia will be the lost of credibility and trust. Those two are essential today, without crediblity and trust you cannot progress in the current world economy. A direct consequence of this loss of trust will be the Europeans doing everything in their hands to cut themselves lose from Russian gas and oil. This will be the most serious long term effect to the Russian economy given their over-reliance on gas and oil exports. This, I can guarantee.
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When the economy goes bust, they’ll just blame the evil Americans and get even angrier. And invade more countries to rip them off.
I know these people and I’m not seeing any cause for optimism.
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Wars are very very expensive to fight. In a bad economy, a war can completely bankrupt a country. History has shown this multiple times. Argentina and the Falklands are the first that come to mind. That war basically brought an end to Argentina’s brutal dictatorship.
The economic aspect is assuming they invade a non-NATO country. The moment they try that on a NATO country, then they will be done. Russia simply does not have the military capability to take on even a small portion of NATO, much less the entire alliance.
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Russia is the biggest seller of weapons in the world. And now it is going in the direction of selling nuclear weapons to all the rogue states. Recently, they have been helping Iran develop its nuclear capacities.
I really really want Putin to lose the support of the Russian people. I want them to break into Kremlin, drag him out and have a public trial on him and his cronies. I can’t tell you how much I hate these people.
But for now, I’m not seeing any possibilities for good developments here.
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Russia is not the biggest seller of weapons in the world. The United States is.
Iran is not a rogue state and not a serious threat to the United States.
Sure, Russia could cause a lot of problems at the UN and make it more difficult to impose sanctions on countries like Iran or North Korea. But they are nowhere near as powerful as they were in the Soviet Union days. And even then, the only reason they did not roll all over Europe and the world is they had to contend with the US.
Dont underestimate the US. It is the most powerful nation on earth for a reason.
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Ed123, yes, wars are expensive, if one is actually waging them. Sending in couple hundreds of special forces to train and lead local separatists is not that expensive for a country he size of Russia.
I am also not so optimistic about small NATO countries. If I (a citizen of a small NATO country) seriously believe NATO will not fight for small East-European countries, Putin may easily believe that as well. Besides, as I have written here before, this would be a strategically wise thing to do for Putin – to completely discredit NATO’s and US abilities to defend their allies. Putin may decide that potential benefits far outweigh the risk.
Of course small NATO countries may take their self-defense as their personal responsibility. Then whey will find themselves in arms race against Russia, which will weaken them economically and turn disenfranchised local Russian minorities more against the authorities and in favor of pro-Russian separatism… (Allegedly, some Ukrainian army unit which just surrendered to separatists has not been fed for several days before.)
Believing in sanctions involves unjustified projecting of Western mindset onto Russians. Those who believe in sanctions essentially are saying that West would surrender if such sanctions were applied to the West. It is testimony to West’s unwillingness to tolerate any discomfort in the name of its principles. It is more productive to think of Russia as analog of some fundamentalist country or organization – i.e. a bunch of people prepared for significant degree of self-sacrifice.
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// Those who believe in sanctions essentially are saying that West would surrender if such sanctions were applied to the West. […] It is more productive to think of Russia as analog of some fundamentalist country or organization – i.e. a bunch of people prepared for significant degree of self-sacrifice.
Imo, the word “Russia” could also be exchanged for “Israel.” We are democratic like West, but expecting the worse makes us probably more unmovable than Russia in questions of security. Which also may enable our government to shout “Security!” and break opposition, even if it’s not exactly so.
// – Oh Gosh, he will be SO popular in Russia with this kind of ideas.
He already is, judging by the Russians’ comments, like here:
http://vk.com/wall-9828339_852336?reply=852591
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All good points, but as I explained in another post, once the truly powerful people in Russia start losing money they will not be very happy and things will change.
You’re right about Russia only using intelligence officers and small special forces groups rather than a full on invasion. This certainly costs very little. The success of such a strategy hinges on Ukraine and other countries having a weak central government unable to defend itself. We will see how this turns out.
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I have not taken the time to figure out what the deal is with the German intellectuals. Are they doing something really elementary like try to prove they are not anti-Semitic, or hoping Russia will be nice to Germany?
What do you think of this piece: http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/04/14/germans-attitude-towards-putin-policy-mysterious-sympathy.html
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I read about it here in Russian:
http://taki-net.livejournal.com/1810284.html#comments
In comments to the Russian post one reads that:
– Those aren’t intellectuals. The word “intellectuals” was added in translation, while in the original German is written “we simple citizens”.
// Are they doing something really elementary like try to prove they are not anti-Semitic
🙂 From Russian comments:
– “The letter’s author, many signers and the blog where it was published – are very close to the odious figure – “journalist,” who was kicked from work for anti-Semitism, who fights against Zionists, Jews, Americans and so on … a lover of conspiracy theories Moustafa Kashefi, who calls himself Ken Jebsen.”
(“Автор письма, многие подписанты и бложик, где это было опубликовано – компашка близкая к весьма одиозной фигуре – “журналисту”, вышвырнутому с работы за антисемитизм, борцуну с сионистами, евреями, американцами и вообще… любителю теорий заговора Мустафе Кашефи, который именует себя Кен Йебсен.”)
I googled and this “Ken Jebsen” is originally from Iran. Via google translate from German wiki:
In early November 2011, he was for statements on the alleged use of the Holocaust to PR criticized purposes. In a private message from the receiver to Henryk M. Broder was passed, he claimed to know who has invented “the Holocaust as PR”. Broder threw Jebsen anti-Semitism before, published the news in a post on his website and gave the message to the program management of RBB on what other media reported. In this context, over his other contributions in connection with the spread was of conspiracy theories reported. way he had, among others, the collapse of the World Trade Center called “warm demolition”
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Hmmmmm, very interesting!
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Also, the Russian blogger jokes that the 1st signer of the letter from the new, pacifist Germany is not a professor or a doctor, but “Jochen Scholz, LIEUTENANT COLONEL”. And jokes:
Russians call that: “no matter how I assemble the bits from the sewing machine, I get a machine gun in the end.”
(У русских это называется “как детали от швейной машинки ни собираю, получается все равно пулемет”.)
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“Russians call that: “no matter how I assemble the bits from the sewing machine, I get a machine gun in the end.””
– What is so scary is that the cynical, intelligent, profound and deeply suspicious of all authority Russians would suddenly start massively and insanely worshiping an ugly, disfigured Botox-filled clown.
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“In early November 2011, he was for statements on the alleged use of the Holocaust to PR criticized purposes. n a private message from the receiver to Henryk M. Broder was passed, he claimed to know who has invented “the Holocaust as PR”.”
– Oh Gosh, he will be SO popular in Russia with this kind of ideas.
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—- What is so scary is that the cynical, intelligent, profound and deeply suspicious of all authority Russians would suddenly start massively and insanely worshiping an ugly, disfigured Botox-filled clown.
Because said clown (should we actually call pretty smart sociopath a clown?) successfully managed to convince majority of Russians that they are resisting the American authority.
— Oh Gosh, he will be SO popular in Russia with this kind of ideas.
The relationship between current official ideology of Russia and antisemitism is much more convoluted than that. I’ve been in contact with some Russian Patriots of “there was no annexation of Crimea, they had a referendum” variety lately, and it occurred to me that Russians are consciously trying to elevate “russophobia” to the same status as “antisemitism” – the universal argument aimed at silencing those who criticize Russia (or, originally, Israel). Russians believe that as main defeaters of Nazism/Fascism they a) are by definition immune to nazism/fascism themselves, and b) possess some Universal Indulgence (as in Papal decree) in all matters that anyhow can be related to “fascism”. And they seriously expect Israel’s support in this ideological exercise.
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“Russians are consciously trying to elevate “russophobia” to the same status as “antisemitism” – the universal argument aimed at silencing those who criticize Russia (or, originally, Israel).”
– Wow, that’s an interesting strategy. But it won’t work because nobody in the world feels guilty about Russia. Maybe a couple of folks in Germany, but that’s it. For this strategy to succeed, there needs to be guilt involved.
But I can see how this sense of aggrieved self-righteousness and wounded virtue is mobilizing even the smartest people in Russia towards hysterical support of Putin’s policies.
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// But it won’t work because nobody in the world feels guilty about Russia.
It’s supposed to work only inside Russia, except also on a few gullible Westerners, who feel guilty about their countries’ past. “I don’t like US politics, thus Russia is probably right.”
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—For this strategy to succeed, there needs to be guilt involved.
And this is exactly why calling opponents “fascists” and not something else is so popular in Russian propaganda and in pro-Russian discourse in general. They are appealing to guilt. And trying to instill guilt, so they will have something to appeal to. (All the better if the ancestors of the opponents have given some reason to be associated with real fascists…)
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Here in Russian Ken’s speech in Berlin:
Кен Йебсен перед тысячами демонстрантов раскрыл правду об антироссийской пропаганде в Германии
http://www.kp.ru/daily/26218.4/3101738/
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“Vladimir Putin offers the world something much more exciting than ideology: his services as interpreter of basic legal principles …”
The truly obnoxious part of this realisation is the fact that Barack Obama gave Vladimir Putin this new ground for ideological defence by way of an accusation: Obama accused Putin of “having a different set of lawyers”.
What we are seeing seems to me more like the return of a new kind of Legalism, not in the Western tradition, not in the Russian tradition, but more like one in the historical Chinese tradition.
Perhaps Putin desires a new Warring States period, believing that Russia will come out of it united, rather than even more deeply divided …
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// 200 German intellectuals signed a letter addressed to Vladimir Putin expressing “their understanding of the Russian reaction …”
I bet this is the same letter by the same “intellectuals” that Z and me discussed in “Worse Than Cold War.”
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Oi, I somehow missed it’s the same post.
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// an ugly, disfigured Botox-filled clown.
You should go to politics. Putin (the way he presents himself – speaks & looks – not politics) often looked impressive and even attractive to me, but your expression made me shudder and created a very unpleasant mental physical image of the man. 🙂
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I’m very happy to hear that. 🙂 🙂 🙂
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This is a dangerous and deluded article – as are many of the comments – and can only make a highly unstable and unpredictable situation a very great deal worse.
You would do well to look more closely at the actions of the US and EU both well before and during this current crisis in greater detail before coming out this anti-Putin rant. And you would do well to actually read all the letter by the German intellectuals in greater detail before accusing them of dangerous appeasement.
Shevtsova’s article seems deranged. She conveniently excerpts only quotes which support her arguments – none of which actually stack up. Forheaven’s sake look more closely – unless of course you are happy to help in this horrendous distortion…
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This is a dangerous and deluded article – as are many of the comments – and can only make a highly unstable and unpredictable situation a very great deal worse.
You would do well to look more closely at the actions of the US and EU both well before and during this current crisis in greater detail before coming out this anti-Putin rant. And you would do well to actually read all the letter by the German intellectuals in greater detail before accusing them of dangerous appeasement.
Shevtsova’s article seems deranged. She conveniently excerpts only quotes which support her arguments – none of which actually stack up. Forheaven’s sake look more closely – unless of course you are happy to help in this horrendous distortion…
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Has nobody ever informed you, sagaman, that offering unsolicited advice to complete strangers is something that only unhinged hysterics do? If you want to join the discussion, get a grip on yourself and frame your response in a less shrill and infantile way. I have no patience for the silly tantrums of the intellectually challenged and rude weirdos.
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Wouldn’t it be wonderful if Lidia Shevtsova or Clarissa here really had that sort of power sagaman is worrying about 😦
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“Wouldn’t it be wonderful if Lidia Shevtsova or Clarissa here really had that sort of power sagaman is worrying about”
– It always makes me smile seeing the kind of power people credit me with. 🙂
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