Revised IHME Model

IHME has updated its model again, for the second time in 3 days.

The peak in the US is projected for April 11.

I’m very glad scholars at IHME (whose initial model sent us all into this lockdown) are recognizing their mistakes and are revising the model.

The governors are now trying to get rid of the unused ventilators that they hoarded in expectations of millions of moribund people. I’m glad they took it seriously but it’s time to take other things seriously, too.

18 thoughts on “Revised IHME Model

  1. According to your website, the peak for Texas is April 22 and Florida’s is April 21. This is why it was important that the whole country be shutdown at the same time. Now we’ll have different states hitting peaks at different times and spreading it back to places where the peak already passed. Had we shutdown in early March, we’d really be over the overall peak now and potentially saved many lives.


  2. Florida’s peak is April 21 and Texas’ is April 22. This is why we needed to shutdown the entire country at the same time back in early March. Now we will have different states hitting peaks at different times and spreading the virus back to places where the peak already happened. Rinse and repeat. I just hope we’re better prepared for the second wave.


    1. Spreading the virus back is unavoidable anyway unless you want to close down the entire global economy and travel forever. Because tomorrow somebody in another Wuhan will eat another day or whatever and it’s all back to the races.

      This was all a mega overreaction spurred by analogies that made no sense (it’s going to be JUST LIKE Italy!). It’s time to walk if back while understanding that yes, people will continue to get sick and some – but not millions – will die.


      1. I think in these type of cases it’s better to overreact than underreact. You’re dealing with people’s lives after all.

        We’re not seeing the massive deaths and rates of increase predicted by the worst case models because drastic action is being taken. I just hope people see that, instead of thinking the measures were a massive waste because the worst case did not materialize.

        My view has been that if we had shut everything down for 3 weeks in early march, we’d already be back to work with additional restrictions. Now we’re going to have to wait at least until end of April for that to happen. Just goes to show how little good leadership we have where nobody wants to make the hard decisions because it’s a lose-lose situation.


        1. “…because drastic action is being taken.”

          Without data from randomized antibody tests to determine how much of the population has already been exposed to COVID and consequently, it is to be hoped, already has a degree of immunity, we can’t know that with a high level of certainty.


  3. Interesting collection of stories

    Из истории массовой истерии:

    В 1831 году во время эпидемии холеры в Санкт-Петербурге стали распространяться слухи о том, что никакой эпидемии нет, а на самом деле это не то борющиеся за независимость поляки по ночам травят овощи в огородах и воду в бочках, не то врачи насильно лечат здоровых людей. Слухи привели к панике, а паника — к бунту: 22 июня толпа горожан разгромила несколько лазаретов и выпустила больных. Во время погрома погибло несколько врачей и полицейских.

    В 1973 году в США случился дефицит туалетной бумаги после того, как телеведущий Джонни Карсон пошутил, что в стране случился дефицит туалетной бумаги. Зрители Карсона, ведущего The Tonight Show, одной из самых рейтинговых программ на американском телевидении, тут же начали скупать туалетную бумагу по всей стране, так что продавцы ввели лимит на два рулона в одни руки и повысили цену в два раза. Хотя Карсон довольно быстро извинился, сказав, что пошутил и не хотел вызвать панику, дефицит туалетной бумаги в стране продолжался более четырех месяцев.

    В 1937 году советские школьники в панике отказались носить зажимы для пионерского галстука в форме костра, считая, что в нем зашифрован контрреволюционный код. Согласно слуху, охватившему детей от Крыма до Москвы, на зажиме был изображен профиль Троцкого и зашифровано словосочетание «троцкистско-зиновьевская шайка». НКВД провело расследование и, не найдя на зажиме Троцкого, попыталось унять панику: учителя стали говорить детям в школах, что слух о тайных знаках распустили враги. Вернуть доверие детей к зажимам не удалось: именно после этого пионеры стали завязывать свои галстуки.


  4. This evening is the Seder Night of Pesach / Jewish Passover in Israel. Because of the virus, people will be forced to celebrate only with immediate family. The traditional questions “What’s different tonight or what has changed?” sounds ironic in the current situation. (The question “is usually answered by four traditional answers, referring to the special rituals of that night.”)

    Want to send best wishes to everybody, for health especially this year, and congratulate you with the coming of spring.


      1. // Happy Passover! (if that’s appropriate….)

        Thank you, cliff.
        It is extremely appropriate and welcome from my pov. 🙂


          1. Our Easter is a week after everybody else’s, and I can’t wait for the Great Lent to end. I’m desperate to go back on my keto diet, and it’s impossible during Lent.


            1. “Our Easter is a week after everybody else’s”

              You mean RC Easter or other Orthodox Easters too? From what I recall there are different calendars and different orthodox church Easters are on different Sundays… I remember one year when it was early in the RC calendar (in March) and I planned a trip to Romania for the beginning of May… only to realize it was going to be Easter there. No regrets, it was very interesting…. (biggest surprise – Easter Sunday isn’t a thing the churches that had been full all week in the lead up were empty on Sunday…)


              1. Very briefly, the Orthodox calculate Easter/Pascha somewhat differently than western Christians – simply, the rule is that, as is found in the Biblical account, it must always follow Jewish Passover. On some years the dates are the same for the two Easters, but mostly Pascha is between 1 and 5 weeks later than western Easter. (FYI this works especially well for Orthodox parents of young children in western countries because leftover Easter candy is typically marked down at least 50% the Monday following Easter Sunday)


                Since the date of Christmas is not fixed in the Bible, several Orthodox jurisdictions follow the December 25th convention but some like the Russian use the 25th December in the Julian calendar which is January 7th in the western Gregorian calendar.

                Not surprising that there wouldn’t be Easter morning services in a primarily Orthodox country because all the faithful had several hours earlier attended a 4-6 hour long midnight liturgy (mass) as Pascha actually begins at 12:00 am. It’s the holiest, most joyful religious event of the year for the Orthodox.


  5. Thanks, Clarissa. 🙂

    OT: Liked the way he put it:

    Пандемию все чаще сравнивают с войной. И это действительно война. И линия фронта существует. Только проходит она не между людьми и коронавирусом. Это – гибридная война, в которой российская власть воюет с населением и между ними расположена главная линия фронта. Коронавирус в целом – на стороне власти, правда, иногда открывает «дружественный огонь» по своему союзнику и отправляет на больничную койку всяких доверенных лиц и даже депутатов.

    Последние сводки с линии фронта

    В пакете “противовирусных” законов, подписанных Путиным, мало что направлено против пандемии, зато многое – против населения, например, право ФСО применять боевую технику. Видимо из танков и орудий БТР собираются расстреливать вирус?


  6. ” Orthodox calculate Easter/Pascha somewhat differently ”

    Yes, many years ago I was talking with an orthodox lay worker (living in Warsaw and working as a lawyer but making regular trips to some village along the Belarussian border) who was talking about the schedules. That year all the orthodox churches’ Easters happened on the same Sunday and he was saying there was talk about trying to coordinate them across all orthodox churches… I had the impression it didn’t happen then, but maybe it has by now, some googling shows “Orthodox Easter” as being April 19…

    ” wouldn’t be Easter morning services in a primarily Orthodox country ”

    I figured that out later (had a Moldavian channel on tv and watched the Satuday night services for a couple of fascinating hours). It was weird at the time though…


    1. That’s a new one for me – I’ve never heard of different jurisdictions having different dates for Pascha – not sure what he might have meant. There has been some talk in recent decades about the western and Orthodox churches working out a common formula for determining the date but IMHO pigs will fly before…

      Here’s a link below that covers with greater accuracy (and with mind-numbing detail) my poor, oversimplified attempt above to give some generalities as to why the dates are different. My head spins after reading more than a few paragraphs of this text but if you skip to the end you will see that there is actually a Online Paschalion Utility that will take all the many variables into account and determine the date of Pascha on any given year – ah, you can’t say the Orthodox aren’t right up-to-date…


  7. “The governors are now trying to get rid of the unused ventilators that they hoarded”

    Any chance you have a link regarding this? Not that it surprises me.


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